Tesco Live Discussion

SaraRacano 02 Jan 2019

Long at 198.50 I should have added at the end of the day, this is about yourself, I am just your inner-thoughts. At the end of the day it´s how you interpret my posts. You want a critique of your theories I will give you a critique. The markets are always in a bell shaped curve pattern, you & only you have to work out where we are on that curve, get it wrong & it will be adios forever. These markets would be very easy to crash. You only have to put massive sells of stocks into the system & the system goes hay-wire. This is where the banks & insitutions will really make their money, collapsing the market then reinflating

SaraRacano 02 Jan 2019

Long at 198.50 First of all I think the point we both have problems with is yourself, views Tesco as a growth stock, you still see Tesco on the left hand-side of the bell shape curve, thus deserving on a high p/e. I however, view Tesco, as being on the right-hand side of the bell shape curve, I view Tesco as a mature, income stock (not much growth left) which is no more deserving than a p/e of 8-9 with a prospective yield of 5%-6%. Tesco to me having a p/e of 20+ looks incredibly over-priced. Sainsbury´s has been in a bear market for over 20 years!!! Nothing goes down in a straight line, nothing goes up in a straight line. That´s why I see a MR-LR, SP target with Tesco around, sub 100p. “Improving fundamentals & TSCO’s longer-term chart.” I don´t see this! The chart since July -20% is very much a bearish one! What is the definition of a bear market? Down 20% from 52 week highs. But TSCO’s technical indicators make that potential rather more than mumbo-jumbo. To me you´re making general statements without backing it up with chart/trades or volumes data. The technical indicators IMO would be the pre-mentioned. I just think you´re writing what you wish to what is actually happening. You interpret wrong, you have big problems. As I have said the market could be volatile but if you think Tesco are a good buy, then good luck to you, I would be happy for you to prove me wrong but I just don´t share you views about UK retailing.

jackdawsson 02 Jan 2019

Long at 198.50 SaraRacano: That´s just mumbo-jumbo, analyst talk. Potential is a very ambiguous word. Sara, Thanks, but I’m too distracted right now for protracted verbal fencing with anyone about how we interpret what’s known. No disrespect intended. The potential you dismiss as “mumbo-jumbo” is evident from improving fundamentals & TSCO’s longer-term chart. You’ll already well know that charts reflect changing sentiment over various & longer timeframes, inc. resistance & support levels. Of course subjectivity exists in both buyers & sellers in how such data is interpreted. Hence no-one outguesses the market consistently. But TSCO’s technical indicators make that potential rather more than mumbo-jumbo. If TSCO has been profitable for you, I’m glad as for anyone else. Few would claim that this game is easy. Malpractice from certain TSCO departments was indeed reprehensible, unfortunate & costly for L/T holders. Effects on the latter go on. But market has long priced-in & moved on from that fiasco. SaraRacano: Given the chronic levels of UK national debt how secure is long term social security payments? What you fail to acknowledge also is the chronic level of house-hold debt. Britexit! Britexit! Yeah, let´s forget about every thing else & just blame Britexit. Britexit, hurts Germany & France more than it hurts the UK. Potentially the EU could collpase. Who is going to pay the 36bn extra when the UK is not in the gang? German & French business are very big importers to the UK! Huge national debt, even among the most powerful economies, has existed for aeons. US holds more debt than anyone. UK ranks highly, but it’s been even higher as a % of GDP when we had alarmingly high interest rates. Thanks to historically low rates all debt is far more manageable. For sure rates will rise again in future as inflation increases, but the high levels seen pre-2008’s financial crisis seem a long way off. Re UK’s contributions to EU. There appears to be common misrepresentation or misunderstanding on this. Let’s not overlook that a good part of UK’s annual contribution was returned via EU investment in poorer UK regions. Take 2017 as an example. Screen Shot 2019-01-02 at 13.00.06.png659x656 30.8 KB At a tangent, no question that lower trade tariffs within the EU had helped UK’s economy climb to 5th in the world. We’ve slipped lower recently. Some will rightly say, a fat lot of good that did to myriads of lower-income citizens! But for that we can more so blame years of punitive austerity resulting from criminal recklessness throughout the financial sector that led to 2008’s crisis. As for the likely wider effects of a “no-deal” Brexit: few deny that both the EU & UK will suffer initially. But UK has already stated that even in the event of no-deal, part of the agreed £39 billion (not £36bn) divorce settlement would still be paid. Chancellor Hammond has confirmed that more recently. - Cheers.

SaraRacano 02 Jan 2019

Long at 198.50 If Tesco were to be a personal “vendetta” then my posts would be historically wrong or very questionable, since 07-08 they have been some-what accurate. Vendetta´s are not normally about pursuance of truth. Tesco to me is bear weather of UK economy. Did TSCO cost you dearly with a previous failed investment? This could not be further from the truth!!! Yes, there will come a time to buy Tesco, but that time is not yet, IMHO. But if you were to sum up Tesco, this decade, it would be of highly questionable, upper-end management (fraud). The vendetta, would be by the directors!!! _TSCO more so than SBRY or MRW as technically it has greater potential upside from current levels. A lot of SBRY & MRW’s more bullish forward-guidance seems priced in. TSCO has been sold down again from levels of 266+ in August despite increasing profits again, mostly as they didn’t meet market expectations. Hardly a disaster. Again, such a statement without any fundamental facts, is very hard to argue. greater potential upside from current levels That´s just mumbo-jumbo, analyst talk. Potential is a very ambiguous word. UK is not Venezuela. You could compare UK to any number of other economies, yes, many on the state of failure. Given the chronic levels of UK national debt how secure is long term social security payments? What you fail to acknowledge also is the chronic level of house-hold debt. Britexit! Britexit! Yeah, let´s forget about every thing else & just blame Britexit. Britexit, hurts Germany & France more than it hurts the UK. Potentially the EU could collpase. Who is going to pay the 36bn extra when the UK is not in the gang? German & French business are very big importers to the UK!

jackdawsson 02 Jan 2019

Long at 198.50 @SaraRacano, Reasons for adding as stated, inc. technicals. Even if a disorderly no-deal Brexit & higher inflation seen, which isn’t a given, food is indispensable. TSCO’s brand is now more competitive. Ditto their other product ranges. For eg. compare prices of TSCO clothing range with SBRY’s. TSCO more so than SBRY or MRW as technically it has greater potential upside from current levels. A lot of SBRY & MRW more bullish forward-guidance seems priced in. TSCO has been sold down again from levels of 266+ in August despite increasing profits again, mostly as they didn’t meet market expectations. Hardly a disaster. UK is not Venezuela. You could compare UK to any number of other economies. No denying many of us have called our buys badly wrong. That’s more than a little disappointing. My worst spell for paper losses since I started. It’s not about seeking to “cover” myself. More so I accept that when fear dominates, people are irrational, prone to panic selling & so things may get worse. In such a climate one rarely buys even near the lows, bar from luck. However, IMO, a lot is probably priced in as regards a worst-case no-deal Brexit. As you well know, these patterns are cyclical. Fear eventually subsides. Greed & then euphoria returns. Re your other bearish forecasts for markets in general made on this BB, some recently. No arguing that UKX has been a really bad index for L/T holders. For eg. sectors like banking, retail, some energy stocks will probably never recover their previous highs. Partly as they were well overbought on euphoria, greed & blind optimism, but not least because of increasing competition. Less understandable is why you focus some of this persistent bearishness on TSCO more so than on X-amount of other stocks? At times it’s almost like a personal vendetta against this particular stock. Did TSCO cost perhaps you dearly with a previous failed investment? But whatever the reason, it’s never a healthy thing to allow subjectivity to cloud the bigger picture. TSCO’s SP will most probably be much higher again later, than not. For both fundamental & technical reasons. - GL.

SaraRacano 02 Jan 2019

Long at 198.50 Firstly Jackdawson; What is the difference between hope & insanity? The first paragragh really is What the Donald Duck are you on about? This appears gobbledegook, a lot of phrases that are just pulled out of the air. Fear & uncertainty dominates it certainly does, big boy, but is the fear justified? Look at gold of late, highly unusual pattern emerging. With charts you need to look at historical data, which I have supplied in my last post which suggests this “correction” is just under-way. Historical volatility charts should also come into play if you´re going down chartist avenue. Food remains an infinite market (Venezuela). Tesco is far, far, far more than a UK food retailer If you´re looking for an all out food retailer, why not Sainsbury´s? Would be prepared to add once more much lower down. In this climate it’d be complacent to rule out things getting worse, before they get better An oxymoronic statement just to cover yourself if you´re wrong! You´re track record of late isn´t good Jack!

jackdawsson 02 Jan 2019

Long at 198.50 Added 2nd long at 190.70. Reasons similar. Support not far below, fillable gaps above as previous chart shows & the general reversals we’re seeing across UKX seem far more to do with unfavourable macro-factors than anything else. Fear & uncertainty dominates. It’s a cyclical, sentiment-driven process. This add still well below longer-term resistance levels. Food remains an infinite market, even if we see higher inflation. Populations continue to grow, as will demand for food. Increasing reliance on AI won’t change that for a while yet. TSCO will see better times ahead from these levels. Would be prepared to add once more much lower down. In this climate it’d be complacent to rule out things getting worse, before they get better. - GLA.

SaraRacano 02 Jan 2019

Buying & holding strategy This post should make you think about what is potentially to come & why buying & holding may not be such a good strategy. Wolf Street – 2 Jan 19 Long-Term “Buy & Hold” Crushed Stockholders in Largest Markets Except US &... Ugly long-term charts that Wall Street doesn’t want us to see. And now US stocks are infected too.

SaraRacano 20 Dec 2018

The measurement of liquidity (trades/volumes theory) The hypothesis is: Most stocks are just Ponzi´s. What trades/volumes should measure is liquidity (the health of a share). Basically when people are confident trades/volumes increase dramatically forcing the share higher & vice versa. Liquidity, is also a very important fundamental. I have talked about human greed. But those that are in on the Ponzi will always exit on the left hand side of the bell shape curve. Once the liquidity is dying the Ponzi scheme is over. This is how Bitcoin, works. Those that evented the programme, will have created the hype (paid the likes of Max Keiser, a lot of money for the PR) but all the time they would have been selling into the upward trend. By the top they should have exited. It has been clear for some time that liquidy has been drying within these markets. This is why at the bottom of cycles trades/volumes are historically quite low. I have highlighted Bitcoin but Bitcoin, could just be any share. There are serious crypto lobbyists that pay the likes of Money Week, for positive PR, “everyone should have at least 10 GPB in cyrptos”. The same with shares. Again you need to focus on the probabilty of chance over a period of time. All I am saying that most of you would be a lot more successful if you looked at average trading day volumes. Let the trend be your friend & just be happy with a profit.

SaraRacano 18 Dec 2018

What´s going on with UK retail Wolf Street – 18 Dec 18 Retail Melts Down Before Christmas in the UK, Spreads to Continent After “the worst-on-record unbelievably bad” November, even e-commerce gets hit, not just brick & mortar, on fears Christmas sales could be terrible.

SaraRacano 18 Dec 2018

& you were thinking Horsegate was bad enough Johnson & Johnson, how do you extend the bread and circuses when you are accused of: lying AND having cancer-causing asbestos in your baby powder? Announce a new $5 billion stock re-purchase programme. “Qu’ils mangent de la brioche”. So who cares? DutS_RcWsAEHdib.jpg778x378 28.7 KB

Ripley94 15 Dec 2018

So, Ripley! Jehovah Witness ?

SaraRacano 15 Dec 2018

So, Ripley! Go young disciple go & buy physical gold the world is on potential for major conflct!!!

Ripley94 15 Dec 2018

So, Ripley! Ok as i have said your very clever , i am not well educated broken home not much young education. You mention greed i mention fear. I wish you luck in your short but it will not come from my pocket i will just hold i can for years and years if necessary . what is your time span ? You mention long time ago you must know the date please tell .

SaraRacano 15 Dec 2018

So, Ripley! There was a 2/1 share split a very long time ago so the true LR price would be around 576p! Why is Tesco under-performing just about everything in retail, including the big players in the € (Metro, Carrfefour etc?)