Vincentinvestor1
25 Nov 2014
crooks of geniuses? AEY had provisions in its contracts that senior management would receive up to 3 years of salary in case of a take overlet me spin this for you, senior management of AEY could receive all the remaining cash in case of a take oversenior management of course could agree with this low bidyou get the picture???
Hub
25 Nov 2014
Re: SOUND FACTS spike501"however it provides a benchmark for where offers will likely be - it is a buyers market." END. This is nonsense.Lets say Tullow is worth circa £4.5bln at today's cap. So you are telling me that if someone offered £4.5bln for Tullow today in a public offer that this then represents a benchmark and is where future offers are likely to be?It's tosh.Just because some tables a stupid low bid, does not make it a benchmark. It makes it a bid that will be forgotten in a few weeks time.The Antrim board may not be around in the next 6 months. What happens if Kosmos farm out a slice of their 75% for XX value in the coming months?Suddenly AEY have a benchmark to work with when discussing with other parties etc.If the seismics cost around $60mln and Antrim cost a free carry on those, then you can see what 25% of 1.1bln resources is likely to be worth. More than $60mln for starters.25% of $60mln is $18mln. Antrim may well farm out 20% of Skellig for a free carry on the drill or drills and even get back $5mln in cash. The decommissioning costs are in 2016 which is years away especially in this market.The only benchmark worth noting is what Kosmos manage to deliver on Skellig farm out.No wonder SOU have gone direct to public offer as they know the bod's at Antrim would not even entertain such a woeful deal. The sp barely moved not because the market thought there would not be any counter offers - but because the market thought the offer was a non starter and would be going no where.Antrim can be bought for tax losses on the basis that the bulk of their business has £10mln in cash and Skellig opportunity.It's not just a tax loss shell. Furthermore, whilst FYNE is economically a non starter for AEY - it may well be a goer for a partner with deeper pockets. So that's another major asset there for the taking - whether it work or not is down to the acquirer. But the tax losses make it a no brainer for some producers.HUB
green.as1953
25 Nov 2014
Re: SOUND FACTS spike....................3.3p is a bit too CHEEKY.
spike501
25 Nov 2014
Re: SOUND FACTS The decommissioning liabilies are due in 2016.Invest £10m and acheive 30% return - how is the boards track record at value creation so far? As I pointed out yesterday the business cannot be acquired solely or primarily for its tax losses.I'm sure everyone would rather see it sold to PMO for 10p - £1 would be even better. However its a pie in the sky valuation.3.3p is a cheeky bid that is unlikely to be successful - however it provides a benchmark for where offers will likely be - it is a buyers market.
Hub
25 Nov 2014
Re: SOUND FACTS spike,Decommissioning costs? Any liabilities are years away. It has nothing to do with the hear and now.They could invest the £10mln cash in another biz / investment vehicle over the next 2 years and probably gain 30%+ and cover the liabilities.Look - don't get me wrong.., I'm no fan of Greer or Antrim's business as it stands. But it's clearly a country mile better than Sound oil's offer.Sound oil have nothing transformational to offer AEY holders. It's a luke warm stock at best.AEY holders may as well see what Skellig brings. It's a great opportunity and they will gain a free carry imo and retain around 5% interest. That 5% interest if successful is worth millions and millions.Antrim have many options ahead of them with that £10mln cash pile. It's questionable on whether the current bod's are the ones to make it work, but that can be changed pretty fast. Greer can be booted tomorrow if required.I can't blame SOU for making a cheeky bid, but just because a pathetic offer of 3.3p has been tabled does not make 10p-14p share any less possible. It simply demonstrates just how far off SOU are.AEY's tax losses are worth more than the £10mln in cash to a producer.I'd rather see AEY sold to Premier Oil or Cairn etc for 10p than 3.3p to SOU.HUB
rollthediceagain
25 Nov 2014
Re: SOUND FACTS Hub I think it would be worth revisiting SOU. I don't hold SOU at the moment (& have never held AEY as it's another jam tomorrow share) but it's infinitely better than AEY and the picture you paint.Existing production covers opex, cash, debt facility, farm-ins, carried work, further farn-ins expected for major assets...
spike501
25 Nov 2014
Re: SOUND FACTS Why will they have to offer 10-14p per share? Its just fairy tale stuff. 3.3p is on the table, do you think the next bid from Sound or next bidder enters at 14p - if so can I interest you in some of the things I am selling on ebay - the current bid is £1, but I'll accept £100. I agree 3.3p is a low ball offer, however if it is not accepted this will fall back down below 3p as cash continues to dwindle so all of a sudden 3.3p doesn't look so bad. 4.5p would look even better.You're suggesting that 5p dividend is paid out - basically all the cash is shelled out leaving decommissioning liabilities on the balance sheet with no means of paying them. Also how much is left of the 5p for most investors when tax is taken off - about 3.3p for most investors.
moneyman59
25 Nov 2014
Re: SOUND FACTS Sound have no problem borrowing on reserve based lending due to proven reserves and have a large institutional investor behind them. Problem for Antrim is that you're running out of options .GLMM
Hub
25 Nov 2014
Re: SOUND FACTS the idea of Sound oil/Antrim merging or doing deal is fine. Sound Oil have some opportunities as does Antrim with Skellig.But If Sound oil want to value Antrim at a huge discount, then Antrim holders expect the same approach applied to Sound oil.Hence I'm afraid, I wouldn't value Sound oil at more than 4p a share. Antrim is worth around 5p a share in cash terms.If sound want to get their hands on £10mln in cash and 25% of Skellig, then they'll have offer 10p to 14p a share for Antrim.Offering 3.3p to Antrim shareholders is an insult and is not a great opportunity.Antrim may as well offer a 5p divi to shareholders today lol!Shareholders could then buy some sound oil shares (if they felt it worth while) in what is likely to be a placing in the near future at a discount to current sp. Why? Because as far as I can see - Sound oil are after £10mln in cash and if they don't get it - then where else are they going to get it? AND AT WHAT COST?HUB
rollthediceagain
25 Nov 2014
Re: RNS There's another opinion piece over at sh4repropthets.com (swap the 4 for an a!) but can't post as II post filtering going nuts
moneyman59
25 Nov 2014
SOUND FACTS As someone who has followed SOU for several years and is heavily invested, i feel for your losses due to poor management. Sound was drifting until James Parsons (ex Shell) took the helm and put together one of the best BODs on AIM. Just look at their presentation on their website - on stream small production covering costs, the much larger Nervesa drilled and proven flows just awaiting prod permit before connecting to the nearby gas grid. Nervesa 2 nearby is thought to be separate field at bottom hole. Then numerous plays, several proven resources to drill and the massive Badille well which is the most likely reason ENI will buy out SOU in the future. ENI also has interests near to your Skellig play, so synergies there.Sound is poised for great things over next 18 months with or without Antrim, so please do not underestimate this great opportunity, and chance for your shareholders to salvage something from your holdings. DYOR and good luck.MM
green.as1953
24 Nov 2014
Re: RNS spike why are you desperate for us to sell ??
green.as1953
24 Nov 2014
Re: RNS Don't sell to the spiv Sound chancers..................They are chancing their arm.............FACT
spike501
24 Nov 2014
Re: RNS Also in regard to tax losses, there are fairly strict rules preventing companies being bought for their tax losses"CTA10/S673CTA10/S673 counters ‘loss-buying’, where a person buys a trading company wholly or partly for its unused trading losses rather than solely for the inherent value of its trade or assets."
spike501
24 Nov 2014
Re: RNS There is approx $17million cash on the balance sheet but also $6million of liabiliites and cash burn is almost $1million per quarter. Antrim values Fyne at zero so I wouldn't get too excited about that, essentially leaving a 25% share in an exploration prospect that by the time Antrim comes to drill it will have little cash left and if it fails there is nothing left.No one is going pay a significant premium to share price to buy what is essentially a shell at a large premium just to get at some tax losses - Ithaca can be ruled out as they already have enough tax losses to cover them for several years and they would get roasted by shareholders if they paid out cash of shares now for a shell that provides no benefit for several years.
