I think that there are a number of people with the same thoughts as toy
i did hold 2m up until last week where i (luckily) offloaded 3/4s
I have 8.5M shares and thou disappointed in the placement and the manor (sucker punch) I will vote no to the planned further increase. SN will not shaft the II's and his placement this morning will be followed by some good news to show then they can make real money in holding FRR. As previously said he has no concern for PI's but his end game which I think is close (1 or 2 years). Short term cash injection to get the gas flowing at a rate that will bring in interest from a Major and consolidate the data on the proven and un-potential resources. This will attract the big II's but, I think he us seeding their interest today - he must know that the SP price will rise on NEW NEWS soon to be released if not he is wasting his time announcing a future share release and no ii will touch them . The big increase in shares are there to be sold in one lump to a major O&G or II investor I sure of that - but not at .8p. We will see an uplift on good new so this is a buy this price SN needs the credibility to deliver SP value to the II's
PFL - FRR will have an OPEX much larger than 45M per annum if you include all drilling cost/s, servicing the debt/interest and investment to increase production, if the stated figure of 200 employees/contractors is correct. However, if an increase in production to the levels indicted happens during this year, FRR will flip into a cash profit generating company. I now hold over 7M and aim to increase to at lease double this over the next few weeks so I for one would like a period on PI selling so the price goes sub .8p. Additionally, talking to some of my old colleagues in Baku about FRR (known to them) lack of data on their gas and shallow operation (last report focussed on the deep opportunity) their opinion is that either the shallow results are not as good as first thought (hence explains the departure of our big holders) and they are holding back this news hoping for more revenue generation and better reportable results of the deeper (or more info on none reported wells) to off-set this disappointing news!!!! or they are selling asset and need to keep a lid on proven resources at the request of the buyer (common in O&G . Why am I holding and going to increase my holdings - based on price of .9 > 1p is about correct at current production levels (I see very little down side)- any increase in production will make this a profitable company and therefore the upside is very good 1.8 > 2.5P. Maybe not to the levels some expect but at least double todays value in a short period of time (two or three months in my estimation). If their is a sale of asset in the pipeline then we are all holding valuable shares.
onedb can't see your 1M trade today - strange but the 2.3M sell the other day was posted at the close, any big buys help drive the price up.
Just topped up another 900K (11.22 trade) I was hoping more PI's would have bailed out and reduced the price further. But I have a good pot£££ ready for this (maybe next week) . Just been reading some posts and their is a lot of rose coloured glasses around here. The day to day Opex for this company along with the 15% servicing the loan I would not expect any sort of profit until at least double/triple todays production levels (but that could quickly be achieved). So the current share price is cheap based on potential and not current operating level. As per my previous post I bought in because SN is no fool and he knows what he could realise via a sale of asset or farm out. Georgia will want to reduce imports of gas so may force FRR to seek a larger trading partner (I suspect one or more are in discussion). My estimate is that the positive notification of Varang drilling will double todays SP in a week. A release of proven reserve figures later this year will add a factor of 3 to 4 times to the SP (still in the ground and not being extracted to a level that would warrant a greater price). This may be the trigger a larger asset sale/farm out and then who knows what value will be put on this (but it will be large). This is a good share based on its potential and only that at this moment in time. We will not get much from SN/FRR until he is ready to release significant news.
Inundating FRR with lots of mail/calls and questions of "why is the SP so low today" will get a brush off or the response I will raise it to "management" why - I suspect he (SN) see's most PI's as profit opportunists and have/add no real value to FRR's real aim of creating something/a legacy and he knows that profit will come and reward those that stick by FRR and "his" plan for the future. He is an old time O&G man a risk taker (that seems to be about to pay off) and not an accountant. I agree that we could/should approach FRR as a significant PI grouping with the interests of building FRR as a business and improving investor communications/relations.
Excellent post CW - SN is one of the main reasons I'm investing in FRR. Single minded and driven and I suspect has very little interest in the day to day share price. He has his goal and something to prove to the O&G industry that he is still a player. He is well respected/ known by some of my old bosses and I respect their judgement. I love to have his little black book of contacts!
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