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Armageddon 25 May 2019

German broadband group urges EU to block Vodafone-Liberty deal When market value is less than debt… … isn’t it fair to say thst any company current value is … worthless… … And then decide from there, it’s outlook

jackdawsson 25 May 2019

VOD discussion Armageddon: Vodafone, I had a similar hold once. Turned out to be my best, worst trade ever. Learned a lot from it. Example when I enter, and say SP goes 5% against me . Well I didn’t enter expecting that movement when timing in. I just get out . No delay. I am wrong at that stage. No point hoping il be right. Could be another Vodafone type. I keep a database of all spreads and buys I’ve done in every instrument, running balance . I never allow a stock to have me aggregate red in the long run. IF i start a new instrument and end up -5% so be it. Exit and be back to it another day for 10-20% play. All about the aggregates and losses simply part of the Sum. But that’s the important thing. Your fixed risk decided at entry and not altered bar four exceptions . One example being allowing another day if a general index cull occurred. Or a gap down open for some strange reason. Hi Armageddon, Thanks again. Valid views. There’s much to be said for setting stop losses, or, if disciplined, having premeditated mental stops with a bit more flexibility. Especially with leverage. Not doing so, as i’ve found out, can lead to avoidable significant losses. Also just deserts. I’ve no excuses for poor decisions. What’s changed for me with VOD (hence change of outlook) was loss of 131+ support on 14th May results & that bad news was very far from priced in. Since then, VOD seen a new 10-year closing low of 123.32 & intraday 122.22. I’m no longer sure what the foreseeable future holds for this, but now that 131 support gone, if by their next update VOD can’t reverse falling revenues & earnings, with already high debt expected to rise further, I feel I can do better elsewhere. Even with real shares. This could take years for a comprehensive turnaround. Often when a stock loses L/T support, that support can become a resistance level. That usually needs fresh good news to break with volume. Where that comes from for VOD anytime soon, I don’t know. If VOD are below 131 by 5th June (XD on 6th June which will see SP drop further), I see little chance of it regaining levels in the 130’s & consolidating soon, bar transient spikes probably to be further sold into. Another concern: existing short position on VOD are still near a record high. That makes me wonder, how low do these hedge funds think this will go? So altogether, too much risk for me since 14th May. By the by, you speak a lot of sense & somewhat remind me of another poster I’ve formerly exchanged views with both on ii & on LSE. If there’s a connection, say no more. - Regards.

Armageddon 25 May 2019

VOD discussion To be honest I don’t see anything wrong with your methods in various places. Vodafone, I had a similar hold once. Turned out to be my best, worst trade ever. Learned a lot from it. Example when I enter, and say SP goes 5% against me . Well I didn’t enter expecting that movement when timing in. I just get out . No delay. I am wrong at that stage. No point hoping il be right. Could be another Vodafone type. I keep a database of all spreads and buys I’ve done in every instrument. I never allow a stock to have me aggregate red in the long run. IF i start a new instrument and end up -5% so be it. Exit and be back to it another day for 10-20% play. All about the aggregates amd losses simply part of the Sum. But that’s the important thing. Your fixed risk decided at entry and not altered bar four exceptions . One example being allowing another day of a general index cull occurred. Or a gap down open for some strange reason. Of course what I write, we all know. But what a difference when applied

jackdawsson 24 May 2019

VOD discussion Armageddon: You doing any cover for all this volatility in buys? I know you don’t do shorts much, if any. But I really like the SLV etf cover. It’s one of those I think you can regularly subscribe to. And one day it will pay out in the long term regardless imo. I’m a big believer in one short for every three buys in shares during bull markets (but not as cover. Expect the short to drop anyway) But I think slv is pretty cool I’m subscribing with no timing, monthly. Get that for a £1.50 fee. Then I add £500 for any call on day to month chart too. Going to do that all the way up and down until reaches 20.00. Then let it carry on with no sub or addition. Certainly worth considering. Far smarter than me commenced it . And these guys haven’t bought such cover in ten years , whatever their reasons Hi Armageddon, Thanks. No cover here, but it’s been a fluid situation for me in recent weeks & I intend to be as proactive here as I’ve been elsewhere. For eg. I’ve recently closed 5 out of 6 leveraged longs in BARC. Those at significant loss. All posted in germane thread, with my reasons. I’ll be doing likewise here with the leveraged longs to free up more margin & increase stakes for trading elsewhere. For eg. I’ve been fairly successful UKX in recent months. Taken well over 500 pts profit. But I’ve not made the serious cash as funds for staking were limited due to so much margin tied-up with losses like this. I also have 2 VOD tranches of real shares. If SP is below 131 on 5th June, day before XD, I may well sell those, too! Still not 100% certain, but if so I’d transfer those particular VOD funds into other stocks fairly sharply. Maybe within days. I already have a few stocks in mind, but still not 100% decided. If I do so, I want to do it before a broker transfer I’m planning to take soon, which can take from a few weeks to a few months. Will post my VOD losses when actually crystallised in germane thread on this site, ie. where I opened those buys live a while back. - Regards.

jackdawsson 24 May 2019

Update on VOD's Liberty Deal: EU opens full-scale probe Maybe of interest to others, news out a few hours ago that the EU will delay their decision on VOD’s Liberty Global deal until 23rd July. - Cheers. Investing.com UK EU regulators extend Vodafone, Liberty Global probe to July 23 EU regulators extend Vodafone, Liberty Global probe to July 23

Armageddon 24 May 2019

VOD discussion Armageddon: 127.70 mid price. Every time I take a buy strike price i get caught out Cancelled buy order. Just looked at volumes since May 18th. Total bear domination. Bears I think will come in too fast on any rise. Not worth the spread long. Just holding short.

Armageddon 24 May 2019

VOD discussion Telecoms longterm: Nobody is going to beat America or China in this . Global domination and control is going to be key in this technology I’ve absolutely no doubt (albeit opinion) that Vodafone is targeted to be broken down. But maybe the Chinese as big if not a bigger player in that than America. Tech wars for global control of the most prized commodity. Data

Armageddon 24 May 2019

VOD discussion @jackdawsson You doing any cover for all this volatility in buys? I know you don’t do shorts much, if any. But I really loke the SLV etf cover. It’s one of those I think you can regularly subscribe to. And one day it will pay out in the long term regardless imo. I’m a big believer in one short for every three but a in shares during bull markets (but not as cover. Expect the short to drop anyway) But I think slv is pretty cool I’m subscribing with no timing, monthly. Get that for a £1.50 fee. Then I add £500 for any call on day to month chart too. Going to do that all the way up and down until reaches 20.00. Then let it carry on with no sub or addition. Certainly worth considering. Far smarter than me commenced it . And these guys haven’t bought such cover in ten years , whatever their reasons

Armageddon 24 May 2019

VOD discussion 're 127.70 mid price. Every time I take a buy strike price i get caught out

Armageddon 24 May 2019

VOD discussion Interestting now. No shorter value yet at a low. And got a sign of a bounce coming. So whilst I remain doggedly bearish, il buy a spread to cover 5-10% bounce from 127.70 . Should at least test 131 if that opens . If I’d expect to go a bit above it if does, before shorter interest increases. Mainly due to it historically in its bear market period, yielding 5-10% for traders in buys.

ValueSeeker8 21 May 2019

Vodafone declares tender offer to purchase (up to) 1.5 bn Euro nearly maturing debt According to an RNS titled: Vodafone Group Plc announces Tender Offers This is roughly the amount of cash Vodafone saved by re-basing its dividend to 9 Euro cent when accrued interest is also counted.

jackdawsson 20 May 2019

VOD discussion I won’t refer to VOD’s SP for a while after today. Not until we see confirmation of a change in trend. However, after 6 successive days of lower closes on above average volume, today saw a higher close at 126.40, despite falling intraday to lows of 122.22. Volume also VG at over 177m. Not that I’m yet convinced by this, as much as I welcome it. VOD probably needs to close above 131, previously a L/T support level, for me to consider that we may have finally found a floor here. PS: I’ve read that VOD’s share buyback of MCB shares ended today. So seeing SP at 10-year lows recently has at least been of some advantage to VOD. - GLA.

jackdawsson 18 May 2019

VOD discussion jackdawsson: NB: Short positions on VOD have gone up from 2.79% when I posted 2 days ago to 3.30% as I write. To clarify & give perspective to yesterday’s comment: rise in short positions to 3.30% seems worse than it is. Only short positions of 0.5% or higher are registered. The hedge fund Arrowgrass Capital Partners increased its shorts from 0.49% to 0.51% on the 16th. Hence the jump to 3.30%. However, the 3.30% figure is bound to be higher overall as it doesn’t include all short positions held on VOD below 0.5%. - Cheers.

jackdawsson 17 May 2019

VOD discussion Poor end to an awful week here. The rot continues, though seems to be slowing down. Another near 10-year closing low today at 124.24. Volume again above average for a 5th straight day. VOD’s average over 84m. From Monday respectively, over 168m, 181m, 128m, 114m & today over 120m. As mentioned before, when we’ve protracted falls on high volume, it indicates a repricing that’s likely to hold awhile without fresh good news. Latter hard to imagine anytime soon. Thus, SP could be stuck near lower levels for ages. As a footnote: a top CEO with a proven track record is significant to rebuilding market confidence. I think with former CEO Colao the market felt that despite challenges ahead, VOD were at last steered by a safe pair of hands. The sell-off since results on 14th, which many thought had all negatives priced in, suggests there’s still little confidence from markets in this CEO or his forward guidance. Good CFOs don’t necessarily make top CEOs. So far, Nick Read has failed to impress. - GLA.

Armageddon 16 May 2019

VOD discussion Could be the case. Problem is the returns on investment these days. Tight and highly competitive. My punt is, the city want these companies to not be paying a dividend. I think its key to get back to a genuine SP support. Won’t suit income funds but they had a party here since 2006. The volumes suggest they did a lot of vod buying in that year. 2008 never squeezed their capital input prices. They had a free div ride for 13 years. Do note when div got cut… nearly back at those 2006 prices. And cut when most income funds would bail out their capital input prices. Timed beautifully for them. Go figure lol

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