Two encouraging bits of news Good news here for Shire Foods I'd have thought, with product recalls by Tesco etc from one of their competitors:[link] here's some encouraging news from Impetus Automotive:[link] Automotive support the growth of Suzuki business salesJune 01, 2018Impetus Automotive are pleased to be supporting the growth of Suzuki Business Sales with the appointment of three new Business Development Managers, delivering regional activity across the network.This follows the increase in Dealers offering the highly competitive Fit for Fleet range to local fleet customers. Reporting to Graeme Jenkins, Head of Fleet, the team will be focusing on developing SME business as well as supporting the development of the Suzuki Business Partner network through training and customer relationship management. We are delighted to be working with Impetus and draw upon their deep experience within Fleet Sales commented Graeme.David Gorvett of Impetus added It is great to have the opportunity to support Suzuki with their continued growth in Fleet and we look forward to working with Graeme and his team on their new journey.The team, consisting of Louise Kelly, Joe Skinner and Tim Whitworth are a mix of promotion from within Impetus and external recruits. Building upon their manufacturer, leasing company and Dealer experience, the team are well equipped to support Suzukis long term growth strategy."
Re: Results are even better than anticipated VLE are the largest holding in Graham Neary's portfolio, and he's filed a decent write-up on Stockopedia:[link] never seems to get particularly enthusiastic about shares, so for him to say that the current m/cap is "conservative" is probably as good as it gets!
Results are even better than anticipated The results are even better than flagged in the trading update - PBT is actually £3.5m, compared to the £3.22m anticipated in the update (up from £2m last year) ))[link] is due of course to the stunning performance by Impetus. Shire has suffered somewhat, but the commentary suggests an improved outlook for this year.The outlook for Impetus is balanced given the "significant opportunities" available to it as against short-term industry uncertainty and training service contract performance/penalties. I suspect the latter is simply the Landers' natural caution warning against exuberance, especially given the astounding performance to date and the note that even if there were penalties these would be unlikely to be material!I also note that the freehold property was revalued in Dec'17 to £2.55m (from £2.29m) - yet another bulwark of asset value alongside the £18.5m of cash.
Re: Not long until results The results will be out in only 9 days' time on 25th May.We know that they will be stellar, with an £18.4m cash pile - and look what happened to the share price after last year's results!As a reminder...."The Group expects to report record revenue of approximately £43.2 million (2016: £33.0 million) and profit before tax of £3.22 million (2016: £1.94 million)."Hopefully the cash pile will soon be not only utilised via an acquisition, but significantly strengthened with the sale of Shire Foods.
Re: Not long until results I agree. On the latest figures, the cash pile amounts to two thirds of the market cap I think. the value of the businesses, as a function of profit and profit growth is IMO far more than one third of the current market cap.With that said, a large cash pile isn't much use. I would like to see the money used more aggressively to grow the business, or else they should consider distributing it to shareholders.
Not long until results Results are on 25th May, so not long to go.In VLE's case in particular, the numbers always lead to reflection on the true NAV of the group - just look at the spike post-results last year.The true value of the subsidiaries and cash pile is in most people's opinion much greater than the current share price, and the upcoming numbers will likely once again confirm this, especially given the excellent trading update.
Today Strange day of trading, many at around the same price and similar amounts. All shown as buys but no upward movement in the SP. Either they were not all purchases or there is a decent seller about. We have to wait until mid May for the final results and the only reason I can think of for the disappointing share performance over the past weeks is that the poor state of the automobile industry is reflecting on us through Impetus. They still seem to me to be a strong and safe buy.
Vauxhall news - opportunity for Impetus Auto? Since Vauxhall seemingly aren't yet a client of VLE's Impetus Auto subsidiary, I'd have thought the news that they are restructuring all of their UK dealerships may well be one of the opportunities previously mentioned for Impetus.The dealerships involved will according to the Times in the majority "be taken back on new contracts", or take on other brands or move into £another avenue of the motor industry£:[link] this restructuring may well provide nice potential for Impetus.
Re: Bullish article from Simon Thompson Simon Thompson's valuation of Impetus Auto seems rather too conservative to me.83% of a historic core PBT of £3.4m could be worth £28m on a post-tax reasonably conservative P/E of around 12, particularly in view of this unusually positive declaration from VLE in the trading statement:"there remain many opportunities for Impetus in what is a very large sector"To be fair to Simon Thompson he does say £15m "or more".So Impetus could alone cover most of the current £36m m/cap, let alone the £18.4m of cash, the £2.4m or so of freehold property, Shire Foods which made £0.64m core PBT and something for Sira Defence.
Bullish article from Simon Thompson Simon Thompson (of the IC) has written this rather bullish piece on VLE:[link] "Volveres record results Shares in Aim-traded investment company Volvere (VLE:1,000p) surged to within pennies of a record high after an eye-catching pre-close trading statement, thus justifying my buy recommendation, at 810p, last autumn (Exploiting hidden value, 25 Sep 2017). I included the shares, at 419p, in my 2016 Bargain Shares Portfolio, so the holding is now up more than 125 per cent on an offer-to-bid basis. The share price move is fully justified, too. Thats because the companys latest NAV of £26m, or 656p a share, includes cash of £18.4m, so Volveres three investment holdings are effectively being valued at just £7.6m even though pre-tax profit for the 2017 financial year surged by two-thirds to £3.22m on record revenue of £43m. The performance of Impetus Automotive, a provider of consulting services to the automotive sector in which Volvere has an 83 per cent stake, was the key driver. The business almost trebled its pre-tax profit to £3m on revenue of £27.1m, reflecting an improved client focus, staff efficiencies and a major contract for the management and delivery of a large automotive manufacturer's learning and development activities in the UK. Impetus is being chronically undervalued in Volveres accounts, accounting for only £3.3m of the companys NAV, or just one times the subsidiarys annual pre-tax profit. It could easily be worth £15m or more in a trade sale, or more than 400p a share in my view. Moreover, Volveres businesses are cash generative, which is why the board was able to spend £3.46m buying back 10 per cent of the share capital last October. But cash on the balance sheet only declined by half that sum over the course of last year. Ahead of the full-year results on 25 May 2018, I would definitely run your bumper profits."
New 1630p per share NAV calculation The poster nicknamed Simso has elsewhere updated his prior valuation for today's RNS.He now has a 1630p valuation - and that's (1) on conservative assumptions and (2) against a current 980p share price:"2018 SOTP Valuation Impetus The 2017 PBT number of £3.4m was £1.9m higher than 2016. We will only get a true split of that growth between "Organic growth" and the large new contract which commenced in April 17. For now, I assume £1.5m is 9 months of New Contract, and £0.4m is Organic Growth. This means we have a profit building block of £0.5m for 2018 as we will have the Contact for a full 12 months in 2018 rather than 9 in 2017. I (hopefully!) prudently assume lower Organic growth of only £0.1m..and we get to the £4m Rivaldo mentions above and derived through a different route. Hopefully scope to do better than that, especially with the news in Dec 17 of the new Partnership with Auditex. If I deduct the 17% minority, a further 10% for Bruvva's Bonus on any sale, and assume 19% Corporation Tax, and then apply a Market Average 14 times multiple to post tax earnings, then Impetus would be worth £34m. The Multiple of 14 times is debatable, and a bear might argue it as too high because its in the Automotive Industry, but a Bull would point the exceptional growth, and contractual earnings giving certainty. I think 14* is a fair compromise. Shire I agree the point that second half underlying of £1.07m (vs £1.02m in 2H 2016) gives validation to the argument that some price increases have now been put through to mitigate cost increases caused by Currency/Brexit etc. On that basis I think it legitimate to assume the FY 2016 of £1.15m is the least we should hope for in 2018. A forecast of £1.15m is basically a roll forward of second half 17 run rate with no further growth assumed, perhaps too prudently discounting their Statement today that VLE " are investing in Shire so that we have the capability to grow. We expect revenues to increase in 2018 and with that, profitability" Given how careful and prudent the Bruvva's usually are, perhaps upside potential on taht number? I have also been cautious in the Multiple applied of 5*, having deducted the 20% Minority, 10% Bruvva Bonus and 19% Corp Tax to give a value of £5.3m. I assume Sira has no value in my SOTP. Having made £30k profit it is perhaps worth £200k or so at most. I would expect net Cash Generation of c£2m (2017 was £1.7m excl the Buy Back), to finish 2018 with £20.4m. Other net Assets of £2.6m is mostly Freehold Property, so will add our 80% share of that in to SOTP Valuation at par. That gives me a total SOTP of £59.8m. With shares in issue of 3,668k, that gives £16.30 a share."
Re: Superb trading statement today VLE's entire m/cap looks like it's effectively covered by Impetus alone, without adding in the £18m+ cash pile, or Shire Foods, or Sira Defence, or the freehold property.Impetus made £1.83m core PBT in H2 alone (before intra-group interest and charges) with a full 6 month contribution from the new contract (I got my figures wrong earlier, apologies).So certainly Impetus looks as if it can make say a core £4m PBT this year, even without any contribution from those new "opportunities". Call that £3.2m PAT, or £2.7m for VLE's 83%. Then give this a not too demanding multiple of say 13, and that covers the entire current VLE £35.77m m/cap.Then add on £18.4m of cash - which represents 502p per share - plus £2.3m of freehold property - 62p per share - plus the value of Shire Foods as a business, plus Sira Defence, and it would seem there's substantial upside from here.
Superb trading statement today Terrific trading statement ))[link] - £3.22m PBT, 66% up on last year - £18.4m cash pile - Impetus is absolutely flying. H2 was even better than H1, with a £2.2m PBT meaning this year could show £4.4m+ PBT if continued, and the outlook is promising given the "many opportunities" outlined today - Shire is nicely profitable and also appears to be looking at an improved 2018 with increased revenues and profitability. Have they won another contract or two perhaps? Great stuff. Congrats to the Landers once again.
Bouncing today, update soon hopefully Good to see a bounce today after a surprising fall last week.Hopefully there'll be a trading update in March again this year. I suspect the share price will have recovered nicely to 1000p or more before then.
More new highs Great to see a £10,000 buy at the high and the full 1050p offer just before Friday's close. Bodes well.