Re: Short positions And down again in todays list, to 4.78% with a reduction by Capital Fund Management SA, dated 16/02/2018 so keeping up the routine of declaring a day late.
Re: Short positions Obviously our short friends don't see much downside from here for TLW. Today's FCA list shows the declared short positions down to 4.81%. Stepping aside for the longs before the rush starts?
Re: Rig count An interesting article here:[link] offshore oil which suffered from slashed investments during the downturn is now coming back with projects that have improved economics, in some cases challenging those of U.S. shale. Thats due to the costs that major oil companies slashed after 2014, to simpler designs, and to the supermajors reshaping portfolios and projects to make as much money at $60 Brent as they were making at $100 Brent four years ago."If that is so then it doesn't take much imagination to foresee effect of the Saudi cuts mentioned in my previous post on the oil industry, especially TLW which is OK at $50 Brent.
Re: Rig count The Saudis look to be chasing a higher oil price pre the Aramco float. If the market predictions pan out it may not persuade the potential Aramco investors to pay a higher price in view of the longer term predictions here:[link] it would certainly lead to higher oil prices and a boost for the rest of the industry in the short to medium term.
Re: Really would be better if It does look like that someone miss the boat of the last week 170p low and wants it lower than that now.the chart says is leveling at bottom and now rising
Rig count Haven't gone away, just bored with crude oil and the way it's price is being kept down. The market is starting to ignore the rig count with their big increases , remember we were told that wells can be drilled in half the time with new technology ...At least all the hype of electric vehicles has pulled back to a more realistic time frame. It will happen as oil shoots up..............Elon Musk flamethrower was a strange one........but you have to give him credit for Spacex Falcon launch..... Tesla still in big trouble.
Re: Really would be better if I think if WTI closes today above 61.6 I think that it's set to rise again. Always a difficult balance between patience and missing out.
Re: Really would be better if Im not so sure i think a retest of 160s needs to happen to wash out the weak holders also oil fall needs to hit $55
London, 22 January 2018 -- Moody's Investors Service, ("Moody's") has today upgraded Tullow Oil plc ("Tullow")'s Corporate Family Rating (CFR) to B1 from B2 and probability of default rating (PDR) to B1-PD from B2-PD. Concurrently, the ratings on its USD650 million 2020 and USD650 million 2022 senior unsecured global notes were upgraded to B3 from Caa1. The outlook on all Tullow's ratings was changed to stable from positive. RATINGS RATIONALE The upgrade of the rating to B1 from B2 mainly reflects all the positive developments in 2017 which strengthened the financial profile of the company. Moody's expects adjusted gross debt/EBITDA to fall to around 3.2x in 2017 after peaking at 5.5x in 2016, mainly due to higher production from TEN and higher oil prices. The deleveraging was also a result of the successful rights issue raising net proceeds of $721 million in March 2017 which allowed the company to reduce debt. The company's liquidity profile was also strengthened after the successful refinancing of the Reserve Based Lending (RBL) facility in November 2017 with a three year grace period until October 2020. The B1 rating reflects the stronger financial and liquidity profile which should provide the company with greater operational flexibility to grow the business and consider the acceleration of investment in projects and selective growth opportunities. The upgrade of the rating to B1 reflects (a) its solid business profile with sizeable oil and gas resource base (b) its growing low cost production offshore Ghana, with TEN fields ramping-up in 2017-18 (c) successful exploration programme and strong execution track-record, with significant oil discoveries in Uganda and Kenya, that underpin the company's long-term production growth trajectory, and (d) proactive steps taken by the company to manage its liquidity position in 2017 and a prudent hedging programme which covers approximately 60% of its oil sales each year. However, Tullow's rating demonstrates a linkage to the sovereign rating of Ghana (B3, stable) given its sizable country exposure expected to account for around 69% of production in 2017 and therefore a further upgrade of the B1 rating is unlikely.
Where is Brummel nowadays. Miss his posts
BofA Merrill Lynch upgrades Tullow on back of debt refinancing ... about time someone gave them credit ... Tullow has to be undervalued now with that major risk removed ... Target price 250p acc. to article in Irish Times this eve.
BassCadet: a big stumbling block to Hydrogen as with other "green" technologies is that it takes a lot of energy to provide them. By virtue of the fact that H2 is a good fuel - i.e. gives off lots of energy in its exothermic reaction with O2 also means that it takes energy to isolate it - 2nd law of thermodynamics etc so no free lunch - it's not found floating around in nature too much as it likes to combine with other substances but where does the energy come from to isolate it or reform it from other compounds? Fossil fuels, so how is that conundrum to be solved?
The only problem is once oil goes above $50 the US producers will come back in so what price for TLW corresponds to $50? That is the value at which the TLW sp is likely to settle in the near term and possibly beyond
TLW is obviously totally correlated to the price of oil based on recent evidence but don't despair - "Goldman, like most analysts, sees a dip in output from U.S. shale producers as the key to higher oil prices. A ramp up in shale oil output over the past year has reduced U.S. imports and offset production cuts by OPEC producers and Russia to leave oil prices wallowing near their lowest point since November.The dip in oil prices has been accompanied by falls in oil stocks that has created opportunities to buy in some of Europe's strongest names, claims Goldman."We ... see the sell off as an attractive buying opportunity in our favored stocks, including Total and Lundin, whilst we have also started to see investor interest in higher beta stocks that have sold off such as Tullow," wrote the bank."
Sorry. Short positions started to get closed five days ago as the SP started to fall in the same time period. This I don't understand as I thought that if the short positions closed then the SP would go up. Am I missing something as a novice investor?