TE10 Monday Sensible suggestions, ps. Since the reorganisation/decimation of the ii boards there has been a dearth ofcontributions on all but a few (eg FRR, which continues unabated) I think a lot of respected posters moved to lse or gave up altogether which is a pity. I felt the same and briefly visited lse but gave up, drowned out by all the rubbish floating on the surface in that particular harbour. (To be fair the SOU board is sometimes quite informative, less so, others) All grist to the mill, I say, as long as it’s polite and civilised. Regards, TP
TE10 Monday I was about to say that there are no permalinks on lse that would let me link back to the posts in context. But I’ve just noticed that there are unique ids for threaded discussions. Perhaps it would be better to provide links to worthwhile threads, which means there is no need to copy and paste actual content and no potential copyright issue. I’m talking about something like this – you have to read the resulting threads from the bottom up: Thread: TE-7 Timelines Thread: Re ambitions of onhym translated
TE10 Monday Just a mad thought. Do you think the lse board can exert any copyright over the contents of their free board. I mean, it’s completely open to non-members, and not access controlled. 90% of what gets posted is mad ravings, but there’s a few posts worth reading. I trawl through them all anyway for my sins, via a webscrape. Would it be of any value to cross-post anything of interest to here, where it could be read minus the crud? For instance, a cross-post from this evening would look like this: From: Dracan66 Sent: Today 19:49 Subject: James reply I asked James about the AVA learnings thus far and whether the results of TE10 would alter the decision on drilling TE11. His email is as follows. Hello ##### It isn’t correct to suggest that TE9 learning somehow changed the outcome at TE10. They are standalone wells without correlation. However it is correct that we likely have now, post TE10, more ability to rely on AVA as our work on the seismic continues. It will take some time to unravel this but work in progress. Our last announcement on TE11 was that it would proceed after the well test at TE10.
TE10 Monday Why thank you, SN. There’s a lot of back biting, ramping, misleading posts on these bbs ( esp. advn and lse) but I’m a genuine holder who also feels this company has great potential. Just a little longer! Good luck TP
TE10 Monday TP, this is my first post ever, been invested in SOU since 2012 with all the ups and downs along the way and I’d just like to say that your posts (on the various incarnations of this site) have been my inspiration to stay with this extraordinary company and to keep topping up on the dips. Thank you for helping me keep my head when my heart didn’t agree and here’s to paying off the mortgage sometime soon…respect
TE10 Monday Motoring along nicely now. Who’d have thought it when just a couple of weeks ago we were in danger of single digits sp Luck all TP
TE10 Monday Well done to all long term holders. I hope your patience will be well rewarded.
TE10 Monday Relieved!!! ATB to all
TE10 Monday Yep, very positive indeed.
TE10 Monday One word. ‘Delighted’ GLA MM59
TE10 Monday Further good news in this morning on Te-10. More gas than they originally thought in additional zone. Gas to surface. Well test rig scheduled for February. Luck all TP
TE10 Monday Thanks for that PS. If TE10 is good and the basin model is back on track, I couldn’t understand the panic on LSE and the ‘happy with £1’ brigade. In your best case model, surely only a fraction of 31 Tcf is going to be proven, the rest based on seismics @ ?p per Tcf. On the other hand, if we drill TE11 into Paleozoic and that shows potential to dwarf Tagi, (31Tcf best case didn’t include Paleo did it?), surely JP’s ‘four figures’ could be realistic? Hence my attempt to look at it from the other end of the telescope and wonder on the basis of previous on-shore buyouts, how much upside would Shell, for example need to be confident of achieving, to pay £10bn for Sound? Hopefully we’ll have an answer in next 6 months or so!! ATB MM59
TE10 Monday I doubt you can validly extrapolate from the UK retail price. The number that has been bandied around for the prospective gas sales agreement on the existing Tendrara find is c. $8/mcf (around £6bn per Tcf). But that is presumably for the limited discovery so far. Multi-Tcf volumes would result in pipeline exports for which the wellhead price would be a lot lower. Also, your 15 Tcf is at the top end of the estimate of recoverable gas in Tendrara. The easiest rule of thumb to use is the one that Sound themselves have done – it takes into account the value of the gas, the cost of development, and the cost of funds over a multi-year development period, plus the number of Sound shares in issue. They say that a Tcf is worth £1.50 on the Sound share price. If you want to let your imagination run wild, ignoring that the value per Tcf of a large find is probably lower, and taking the high-case estimate of the Tendrara potential … then you’re look at 31 Tcf x 50% recovery rate x 47% owned by Sound x £1.50 = £11 per share. But I’d say after the TE-9 panic that gripped private investors over on LSE, I’d say many of them would bite yer arm off for a tenth of that.
TE10 Monday Eagerly awaiting news on TE10. I read somewhere that the UK consumes about 3 Tcf gas per year and these retail sales add up to £15bn (£5bn per Tcf). Assuming a buyer thought they could extract 15-20 Tcf from Tendrara they stand to make £75-100bn minus extraction costs, if above is correct. Is there a ‘rule of thumb’ from previous buyouts in the gas industry of what percentage of potential value, let’s say £100bn, is a decent purchase price for such an asset? You can see where I’m going with this. MM59
Bad news tomorrow? SOU… XXXX 27% up today on 10 Dec they fell to 11p now @ 22p they have doubled in 18 days .