Shire Live Discussion

Live Discuss Polls Ratings
Page

Gamesinvestor1 05 Dec 2018

Business Update well spotted, it is indeed.

Ripley94 05 Dec 2018

Business Update Gamesinvestor1 That is not reading right to me the value is above toady’s price not below as i read that .

Gamesinvestor1 05 Dec 2018

Business Update At today’s rates, I get an approx value of :- $30.33 exchange rate to £ = £23.8 Takeda Share Price 4240 Yen 0.839 X 4240 = 3557 Exchange rate Yen to £ = £24.7 Total value £48.5 or 3.7% below today’s 4672 as I type So tha gap has shrunk because Takeda share price has dropped a bit more. Will the gap close more or is this as good as it gets? Games

Ripley94 05 Dec 2018

Business Update Thank you Gamesinvestor1

Gamesinvestor1 05 Dec 2018

Business Update R – Looks like this :- “”“The last day of dealings for Shire shares on the London Stock Exchange will be Friday, January 4. Shire will be removed from the FTSE 100 index on Monday, January 7, according to index provider FTSE Russell.”" I guess the gap between 4675 and 4900 will close more, but not fully, when the Shire shareholders approve. It’s probably then you want to dump them, or at least before the 4th January. I wonder about Takeda shares in January, I expect they might drop like a lead balloon as lots of international shareholders will say Sayonara !! Games

Ripley94 05 Dec 2018

Business Update SHP… XXXXX The deal got voted through by over 85 % share price up .

Gamesinvestor1 20 Nov 2018

Business Update I’d be tempted to take the money a little closer to north of £47 which it has touched already a week or so ago. Anything could happen between now and the vote. So the downsides are :- The vote goes against, in which case collapse $ weakens Takeda share price falls £ strengthens against the Yen. Sometimes a bird in the hand is … Games

Ripley94 20 Nov 2018

Business Update Thank you for posting that Gamesinvestor1 8.65 % seems a good return for two weeks are you not tempted ? All buys seem risky at the moment .

Gamesinvestor1 20 Nov 2018

Business Update At today’s rates, I get an approx value of :- $30.33 exchange rate to £ = £23.566 Takeda Share Price 4476 Yen 0.839 X 4476 = 3755 Exchange rate Yen to £ = £25.94 Total value £49.507 or 8.65% above today;s price of 4628 as I type. All this does have to be judged against the possibility, however remote, that the deal is voted down on Dec 5th – The key honcho in the Japan Takeda family has spoken out against the deal for the first time, and this is said to carry a lot of emotional weight in Japan, even if the family themselves don’t have the shareholding to carry it off themselves - maybe they can influence some Japanese institutions. Inwhich case, Shire share price would probably collapse by at least half if the vote went against the CEO. Games

Gamesinvestor1 12 Nov 2018

Sold the rest Ripley, I believe not, it’ll be a Japan listing and US ADRs. Either way you’ll have a withholding tax admin issue. If you hold ADR’s which is I think what you will be offered for the non cash element, you’ll need to complete and annually refresh a W8-BEN form to prove you are a non US resident and that you are not holding the shares as part of a business - you’ll then have your divis taxed at 15% and not 30%. Takeda in Japan has about a 4% yield so I’m guessing this will be the similar figure for the US ADRs (American Depository Receipts). Games

Ripley94 10 Nov 2018

Sold the rest Hi Games . Hope you are well Will Takeda have a london or other listing after this deal apart from Japan ? I can see something on london south east site but its nor clear .

Ripley94 10 Nov 2018

Business Update SHP… XXXX My last post 31st October was the new high @ 4680.

Ripley94 31 Oct 2018

Business Update SHP… XXXX Not sure i remembered the takeover from Takeda which is worth approx £49 ( it is in shares and $ ) 9th October a poster worked out 48.81… he claimed the then price was 12 % below offer. It is about 5 % less now. With markets falling back maybe some think it a safer bet for there cash. Risk that it might fail .

Gamesinvestor1 14 Sep 2018

Sold the rest Took advantage of the rise well above 4515 and sold - I may be leaving money on the table, but the gap has closed enough for me to want to derisk it. After seeing this see saw from a very large profitable position to a very big loss position and then back again with the bid, I guess I’m relieved to be out with a firm profit. I think on balance I was a little more than naive in not taking Shire’s debt more into account. A top line P/E is all well and good, but when debt adjustment is considered, the real P/E is very high indeed. I don’t fancy holding this as part of Takeda, which itself is suffering a declining portfolio of drugs and is now going to be so indebted (assuming the deal is done and there are still doubts) that they will be forced to sell several profitable aspects of the business to bring the debt down somewhat. Whilst the old Takeda family has only a minority stake, they are so strong in their ethics of such an old company, they will try anything to thwart this deal in the name of the original founder’s principles. It’s going to get more compex maybe? Games

Gamesinvestor1 14 Sep 2018

Japan’s drug giant Takeda torn by civil war Each year, Christophe Weber, chief executive of the Japanese pharmaceuticals giant Takeda, pays a visit to the widow of Chobei Akio Takeda VII, who was appointed president before his death in 1980. The 51-year-old Frenchman has made it his business to ensure he has the support of Mitsuko and her daughter, who together own a small but important 2% stake. Weber’s annual visits are today paying dividends. He is said to have won Mitsuko’s backing for Takeda’s audacious takeover of London-listed Shire — the biggest overseas acquisition by a Japanese company to date. It will create a global pharmaceuticals behemoth with combined sales of $31.2bn and 49,230 employees — and spell an end to the tenure of Shire’s Danish boss, Flemming Ornskov. The £48bn deal, however, has led to a clash between Weber, with his plans for world domination, and a small group of family shareholders and former employees who fear that Takeda is biting off more than it can chew. The rebels, working under the banner Thinking about Takeda’s Bright Future (TTBF), are seeking to mobilise the support of retail shareholders to derail the deal. One leading member of the Takeda family said the size of the takeover would have “disastrous” consequences for the business, and would risk distancing the pharma giant from its corporate philosophy of “Takeda-ism”, which aims to bring “a brighter future for people worldwide”. Takeda-ism dictates that profit is the “fruit that can be obtained as the result of making the people happy”, according to TTBF. Kazu Takeda said: “We understand that scaling up is necessary, but Takeda management has to think about traditional corporate culture.” The deep division among shareholders is partly a story of a family that fears it will lose its grip on traditional values stretching back more than 230 years. It is also the tale of a western chief executive’s mission to ensure Takeda competes on the global stage against fellow giants, such as Glaxo Smith Kline and Pfizer, and rivals producing cheap, generic versions of its drugs. Takeda began in 1781 when Chobei Takeda started selling herbs in Osaka. His descendants gradually expanded it into a 3.48 trillion yen (£12.3bn) pharmaceuticals giant with 1,770bn yen in annual sales. The family links are still strong, despite the last Takeda chief executive stepping down in 2003. So when Weber’s predecessor, Yasuchika Hasegawa, led the company on an international charge — even changing the working language at boardroom level to English — there were some in Japan who feared that Takeda was striding too far from its traditional roots. “Hasegawa got rid of most of the family members working in the company,” said Shigeru Mashima, a former UBS analyst hired by TTBF to represent its interests. Those concerns resurfaced earlier this year when Takeda announced it planned to borrow $30.1bn to buy Shire. Soon after, TTBF launched an assault on what it described as “unfairness” in the way the shareholders of the two companies were being treated. The dissident group argued that Takeda was taking on too much debt and being too generous by paying Shire investors £49 a share — a 64% premium to the stock price before deal rumours arose on March 23. Since then, Shire’s share price has risen 31.5%, while Takeda’s has fallen 20.3%. “The Shire deal has come as a total shock to the family,” said a TTBF adviser. Some have suggested that opposition to the deal is also partly due to the company begin run by a non-Japanese chief executive for the first time in its history. Michael Woodford, who blew the whistle on a £1bn fraud scandal at Olympus, the Japanese camera and medical device maker where he was the first “gaijin”, or non-Japanese, president, said: “This should be a debate about the best price and strategic step, but it goes into the murky world of corporate Japan — a world of smoke and mirrors where shareholder value and commercial decisions are secondary to relationships . . . there is a prejudice against having a foreigner running the company.” Weber’s move on Shire was designed to get Takeda out of a bind. It has struggled with a series of setbacks in recent years, including battles over drug patents and copycat drug makers, and the end of exclusive rights to several blockbuster drugs approaching in 2020. Part of Weber’s strategy has been to bolster its pipeline with a string of deals. Last year, it bought Ariad Pharmaceuticals for $5.2bn (£4bn). Japanese companies have become more willing to look outside their stagnant domestic market for growth — including to the UK, which remains a hotbed of early-stage drug research, despite a lack of clarity over our future relationship with the EU. Weber, who joined Takeda after a 20-year career at Glaxo, has sought to outsource more of Takeda’s early-stage research — a strategy employed by many big pharma companies that are struggling to build their own pipelines. In May last year, he signed a $100m tie-up with GammaDelta, a spin-out from King’s College London, to develop new treatments for cancer. The Shire deal, however, would also take the company on a huge step into the west. The Frenchman is “very good” at negotiating the Japanese culture of “consensus decision-making”, said a source familiar with Weber’s dealmaking strategy. “In Japan, Denmark and Sweden, you don’t move unless everybody around the table is nodding their head saying its the right thing to do. But once you have consensus, it’s an unstoppable force.” Weber’s talent for achieving consensus has not stretched as far as the smaller Takeda shareholders. In a meeting weeks before the Shire deal was announced, he is said to have outlined a strategy of buying small and medium-sized companies. “We were very much shocked that such a huge acquisition was announced so suddenly after the meeting,” said Kazu Takeda who was present. While the Shire deal will turn Takeda into one of the world’s most indebted drugmakers, with borrowings set to reach five times earnings, Weber has promised to deliver savings. He is expected to trim the workforce and cut other costs, though there are few overlapping businesses in the two companies. It was at Takeda’s annual meeting in Osaka in June that the rebel group first attempted to undermine the mega-deal. It put forward a proposal that would force Takeda to secure shareholder approval in advance for large acquisitions, but won just under 10% of the votes. TTBF’s new plan is to persuade a third of shareholders to vote against a company proposal to approve the issue of new stock to help fund the takeover. Takeda said the outcome of the vote at the meeting demonstrated the “majority of shareholders agreed” with the board. “We are looking forward to continuing our dialogue with shareholders on the multiple strategic and financial benefits of the acquisition of Shire,” it said. There are few who think the dissident group will have enough clout to scupper the deal. Atsushi Seki, an analyst at UBS, said there was a “huge question mark” over the percentage of shareholders TTBF actually represented. Some have put the number at about 1%, others claim it is higher. “Even so, 9.5% is not enough to move the needle,” he said. “Their strategy is not that sophisticated and they have been fairly quiet since the AGM.” Weber promises he will not drag the company away from “Takeda-ism”, but he has so far been unable to convince the dissident group of the merits of the deal. He admitted that Takeda is a “very old company with very old values”. If he gets his way, it will become more modern — and his visits to Mitsuko, the widow of Chobei Akio Takeda VII, will have paid off.

Page