The fightback takes another step forward Im sure a lot has been going on behind the scenes in this fundamentally strong company in past weeks. It has a very high institutional shareholding and Im sure they have been making their feelings well known. At the same time, any strategic discussions will have been talked through with them and their support sought. The last two announcements, including that today, have involved a shake up at the top. In the last one, the Chair resigned, and a very strong IMHO existing NED took over there. Now, the CEO is being replaced, but what is very important to me as a long term investor, in an orderly fashion. They have made it very clear that the search for a replacement for the current CEO has been going on for some time and an appointment made, and he starts today! The current CEO is going to stay around for an orderly changeover. It would not be in the companys nor in his interest (he still has quite a lot of skin in the business) to do anything else; he is very experienced, and I'm sure he would love to have his shares worth something approaching what on paper they were worth a year ago. Today may indeed be the beginning of a significant fight back for SFE. The noises I hear are that the tide has already turned in some respects and especially the quality of orders is improving. I am beginning to have considerable confidence that SFE can rebuild, and they still have the cash, a renewed and more effective manufacturing capability (new factory in Barnsley) and the institutional support to do it. With a renewed management team at the top, the SP at the end of 2018 and especially by the end of 2019, could be a lot a lot higher.
Re: Dire announcement It looks to me that the concerns over consumer confidence are a sideshow compared to what is actually happening. It seems that Safestyle's founder Mitu Misra has backed a new venture Safeglaze UK down the road in Bradford. Safeglaze are now cannibalising Safestyle's business and not only grabbing potential customers but also some of the best salespeople. Safestyle have just expanded their factory and now they are experiencing a slump in orders. I think the reason for the cancelled dividend is the Safestyle board can't be certain how much damage will be done. Horrible for SFE shareholders.Here is a link to some background information on Niamac Developments Ltd trading as Safeglaze UK. [link]
Dire announcement Well cancellation of the dividend has certainly knocked the bottom out of any support. It is going to take some turnaround for this to regain the 100p level, let alone get anyway near the previous highs.The latest results stated they had £11m net cash on the balance sheet, which I thought would help preserve the dividend. It looks as if they might have burned of this cash and need the dividend monies to keep going.This is now definitely in the high risk, speculative category now, and currently I would not consider it worth that risk.
PS suddenly gone quiet.... ....where is everyone. Still choking on the latest news?
Armageddon for the SP...... .... another dip below 100p after the body blow yesterday. We will find out more on the 22nd with the prelims but already brokers forecasting EPS for 2018 to be down to 11.9p and a long way off 2019 of 13p. Divi expected to remian the same in p per share for those two years after the promise for this last year so must have had guidance form the company. They have the cash reserves to support that, but whether it will be wise to do so given the low cover of the divi, I dont know.There have been some large and strange trades today. Especially notable were the 3 trades totalling 450k (some maybe matched) priced at around the 115p mark when the SP for smaller trades was around the current 96p. Later there have been 7 x 6 figure trades, again some probably matched, at around 97p, in total amounting to 3m. The SP seems to have steadied at around the 96p mark after falling to 93p. Whether this is a good buying point is debatable. There could be another hit at the prelims especially if there can be no reassurance given on the Outlook.Holders sit on your hands I guess if you havent already sold; potential buyers willing to risk the falling knife?
Re: Anyone feeling brave.. I think the next trigger could be the dividend. Last year's dividend cover was 1.7, which indicates there is some margin that would allow the dividend to be maintained, even with a lower final profit figure. A dividend cut could be the final straw for many investors.We are currently at about the same level as after the September Trading Update, which is disappointing having now lost all of the interim recovery. What I did notice is that the traded volume was /is considerably higher than the three previous SP slumps, possibly indicating that many have had enough and are jumping ship.I held in September, and will continue to do so unless the SP dips below 160. However, I do not feel confident enough to add further. I think SFE is now firmly in the "speculative" category.
Re: Anyone feeling brave.. unfortunately do hold a small number.......that's generally the starting point for me, with potentially a couple of additions before reaching an appropriately sized holding.
Re: Anyone feeling brave.. Good and fair summation Pie imv.Never held, have it on a watch list.
Re: Anyone feeling brave.. Getting into very interesting territory as still generating plenty of cash and market share albeit at the cost of margin, but the thing that bothers me probably comes under the heading of reputation..... SFE issued fairly bland and re-assuring info in interviews, with the IC for example and within 4 weeks we had the first profit warning. (Memories coming back of ACRL here). I know many people were let down then. It takes a long time to build trust / a good reputation and it can be destroyed in a second. While they did then advise the outlook was uncertain, today's announcement doesn't give any real roadmap to improvement until 2019 at the earliest.PE
Anyone feeling brave.. And considering buying ..
Re: IC Comment - SELL After this mornings news, seems like the "rule of 3" for warnings is still on..expect a sizeable fallPE
Re: IC Comment - SELL Well, inertia is occasionally a good thing. I could not find a good reason for rushing in to a disposal, since I was hopeful of a little recovery first, and there were signs that the drop may have been a little exaggerated. Today's move makes me hopeful that may get back to a 220 - 250 range. I have only held this since February, and I usually like to give a share a year to make good. I think I will hold without modification, for a bit longer.
NEW ARTICLE: After three profit warnings, is Safestyle over the worst? "While many companies have been riding high in 2017, it's been a year to forget for others. A plethora of profit warnings from consumer-facing companies has hit many, none more so than LSE:SFE:Safestyle.The windows and doors specialist was going ..."[link]
Paul Scott's view [link]
Re: IC Comment - SELL Well it seems their advice was correct! Today's 30% + drop seems very harsh, and a little more than I had expected when I read the RNS this morning. Hopefully it is oversold and will retrace some of the initial drop. However, I will have to reassess my holding, and potentially cut my losses on this one.