Time to Buy.....? Now that the Market Makers seem to have got themselves sorted and are now offering more representative share prices, is now the time to buy?The decision to buy or not depends on various factors, the main ones being:1) The share price discount to NAV is now back to its historic range of 12%-15% at todays prices.2) Has the oil price stabilised and, if so, will it start to rise - giving increased profits to the region? Qatar has diversified and is now less dependent on the oil price, and much less dependent than other oil producing countries, but there is no doubt the current malaise in the oil price has effected the Qatar share market.3) Will the new FIFA President (and committee), due to be elected in February, decide to look again at the 2022 World Cup? Even if it does, will that have any effect on the long term expansion in Qatar (apart from loss of face)?4) Has the recent fall in the Qatar market been overdone? QIF's NAV has had 10 losing weeks on the trot - this may indicate it is due for a rebound at least, and could, if the above 3 factors are positive, be the start of an upward curve. There are other factors, but the above are, imo, the main driving forces behind whether or not the current QIF share price of $1.06 represents a buying opportunity. In my opinion, on a long term view, Qatar (and hence QIF) is a strong buy. Is today's price an opportunity.......? It would appear so ......As always though, do your own research.
You were warned ...... Everyone has been warned and today it finally happened - REALITY hit the QIF share price.As previously discussed, market makers (MM's) seem to have been providing a false market in QIF shares since it went ex-tender offer on 10 November and ex-dividend on 17 December.Today the share price has fallen $0.07 (-6% even though the Qatar market is closed today and has a bank holiday on Sunday 20th December) to a mid-price of $1.07 against an estimated NAV of $1.23 (ex-div) as at 17 December; now back to its long term average of trading at a 10%-14% discount to NAV.So what caused the sudden drop today? Or, perhaps the more relevant question that needs asking, but doubtless won't be answered, is; why were the MM's quoting such a high price for QIF over the last 6 weeks and why, during November (and at various other times during the year) were QIF's brokers buying back shares at inflated prices, and, buying at the same time each day?Both the above do not inspire confidence in QIF dealings at present, even though its NAV has outperformed the Qatar Exchange this year (i.e. it has fallen less than its benchmark).QIF should, and could, be an ideal and easy way for investors to access the Qatar market in a safe way. Until the shenanigans of the last 6 weeks it did seem such, but now ......???? All of which is a great shame, because today its share price and NAV now seem balanced and, the Qatar market seems ripe for a rebound ........ In theory now is an ideal time to buy QIF......As always, do your own research.
Ex-Dividend ($0.04) Today A reminder that QIF has gone Ex-Dividend ($0.04) today - not that the Market Makers seem aware!In theory the share price should drop $0.04 but, given the strange offerings and pricing by QIF's Market Makers, it wouldn't surprise if no change to bid/offer pricing was made (as at 08:20 today, no change had been made, hence market displaying QIF trading +$0.05!).This is worth watching and bearing in mind for future trading, for if no change is made it means you could have bought QIF yesterday at $1.15 and sold today at $1.135, making a profit of $0.025 per share, all thanks to the alarming behaviour of QIF's MM's! Keep a careful watch on what QIF's MM's are doing and make sure you aren't lulled into buying, or selling, at a false price.As always, do your own research.
Where will share price go now? Where will QIF share price go now?Whilst holders were unable to sell shares until tender offer was completed (whilst awaiting for allocation notification), the QIF share price has maintained virtual parity with its NAV. This despite having a 10%-15% discount to NAV since inception.Why?There has been virtual zero trading in QIF shares yet the share price has increased over the last 6 week period. During the same period QIF NAV has dropped like a stone. All very strange.As it stands iii are offering a QIF sell/buy of $1.24/$1.31 against its NAV of c.$1.31 - a buy price of parity with its NAV.Will QIF maintain this historic ultra high share price of NAV parity, after years of a 10%-15% discount to NAV? Or will the share price fall to a more reasonable level? Given the sharp falls in Qatar Stock Exchange this year, its hard to find a reason for why there has been such a major shift in share price to NAV over the last 6 weeks.Buyers beware at this share price.As always, all above is my own opinion. Important that you do your own research.
Tender Price $1.3004 [link] to the Company's announcement on 12 November 2015 regarding the passing of the resolutions at the Company's Extraordinary General Meeting to give effect to the Tender Offer, and the result of the Tender Offer, the Board today announces that the Tender Price, which has been calculated in accordance with paragraph 3 of Part III of the circular to Shareholders dated 15 October 2015, is US$1.3004 per Share. It is expected that cheques will be despatched and CREST accounts will be credited with proceeds in respect of successfully tendered shares and with unsold uncertificated Shares by 14 December 2015. It is expected that balancing certificates in respect of unsold certificated Shares will be despatched from 14 December 2015.The 19,333,165 Shares tendered under the Tender Offer will be cancelled, and following the cancellation, the Company will hold 1,417,370 of its ordinary shares in treasury and will have 118,547,877 Shares in issue (excluding treasury shares).
Has QIF share price discount to NAV disappeared for good? QIF NAV as at last Thursday 26.11.15 close (end of Qatar trading week) was $1.3224The current QIF share price is $1.27 sell and $1.3075 buyGiven the above, QIF share price is currently trading at a mid-price discount of only 2% to its NAV and has a buy price of not far off parity - a significant change in recent weeks. If QIF share price was trading at its trailing 12 months 14% discount to NAV, today's current share price would be c. $1.13-$1.14; a big difference to today's actual mid share price of $1.29So what is happening?Since inception, QIF has consistently traded at a discount of between 10% - 15% despite an enormous share buyback policy running into many millions and, for the last 4 years, making tender offers for its shareholders to sell back to the Company; 20%, 10%, 10% and 14% respectively annually.The question raised is; why has the QIF 14% share price discount to NAV virtually totally disappeared in the last few weeks since the last tender offer when, in the previous 3 years the tender offers had zero effect on the share price?Being an investment fund, QIF is different to a 'normal' company trading shares. If a mainstream company buys back its own shares, its share price should increase because its assets (in theory) remain unchanged but, its number of shares have decreased thereby giving each share a higher stake in the company's assets. However, in the case of an investment fund making a tender offer, in the same terms such as that of QIF's, the share price should in theory remain unaltered. Why? Because as well as giving shareholders 14% (in QIF's case) of their money back (to be valued at c. 2% discount NAV at 02.12.15 close), which incidentally was fully prescribed, it is also simultaneously selling the same amount (14%) of its assets (investments mainly listed on the QSE) to fund the tender. So 14% returned to shareholders and 14% reduction in assets should result in zero effect on share price. The above paragraph brings me back to my initial question - why has the QIF 14% share price discount to NAV virtually totally disappeared in the last few weeks?Will the share price suddenly drop back to its historic 10%-15% discount to NAV or, has the QIF share price now adjusted long term to reflect par value (or even premium?) with its NAV? I fear the former, but hope for the latter. At present extreme caution is recommended before buying QIF shares at the present price of $1.3075 which is almost at par to the current estimated NAV of $1.32 at QSE close today.As ever, all the above is my own opinion, it is important everyone does their own research.
Changes in Qatar SE from 01.12.15 An important aspect to note is that; 2 shares in which QIF had investments at 30.09.2015, Qatar Gas Transport Company Nakilat (QGTS) (4.1% of NAV) & Gulf International Services (GISS) (4.9% of NAV) have changed status in the Qatar Index. These changes could materially change the value of each of the companies involved and, as such, have an effect on QIF's NAV depending on what action the QIF's Investment Adviser has taken preceding this event. See below....MSCI announced the result of the periodical review. For the Companies listed at QSE The outcome of the review is as follows:Addition(s) to the MSCI Qatar Index: Qatar Gas Transport Company Nakilat (QGTS)Deletion(s) from the MSCI Qatar Index: Gulf International Services (GISS)The changes to the MSCI Qatar index became effective on : the close of November 30, 2015
Re: Strange share pricing of QIF All discounts mentioned in previous post are of course, share price discount(s) to NAV - missed off the 'NAV' when discussing the QIF share price and its current discount to the investment fund NAV (i.e. the value of its investments). As always, do your own research.
Strange share pricing of QIF QIF is currently being quoted @ $1.2625 sell & $1.2975 buy.This seems very strange pricing given that after todays fall its NAV is c. $134-$135Makes todays discount c. 5.0% and given that the current tender offer was made after the share price averaged a 14% discount over the last 12 months, and has averaged a similar 14% discount since inception, it makes todays discount of 5% extremely 'shallow'.Looking at the share trading in QIF over the last month it can be seen there has been zero buyers with the exception of QIF own buybacks. It can also be seen that these buybacks seem to have always been at the highest price of the day and occur at 16:35 each time. The buyback price has often been at a higher price than the closing buy price at 16:30. The current share price is getting perilously close to what the tender price will end - all very strange. Long term my personal opinion is that QIF has great potential, but I am confused as to why brokers are keeping the share price at, what would seem, a false high price. I would expect a sharp fall in share price in the near term unless the Qatar market shows an upturn.All the above seems to indicate that great care should be taken when thinking about investing in QIF at the current price.As always, the above is purely a personal opinion so make sure you do your own research.