Seago Istanbull [link] bunkered by Spabunker 50 at 23.10hrs 25/9/2016.
Re: QFI technical analysis SOU got some heavy recommendations and became a momentum stock feeding on its own strength. Quadrise needs to attract attention and at the moment is awaiting results.
Re: Maersk t. Often breaking up a mega company leads to some flying and some lagging. I guess we are part of the Energy group which I imagine will fly. This must be good for direct investment in r&d and Quadrise in particuar. Shipping is more of a utility and not subject to sudden growth. Good news
Re: Maersk t. Often breaking up a mega company leads to some flying and some lagging. I guess we are part of the Energy group which I imagine will fly. This must be good for direct investment in r&d and Quadrise in particular. Shipping is more of a utility and not subject to sudden growth. Good news
Re: SERVAL Yep- thinking MAN could already on board through Serval excites me. Seago is defiantly our boy, confirmed by someone at the docks. Great job by the way!!
Re: QFI technical analysis 'I think that would be epic if it worked that way!'---------- ---------- ---------- ------Well, it's best to come to your own conclusions over time so I won't say whether it is possible or it isn't at this stage. Obviously, if SP's moved only after 'events', it would be impossible.With any 'theory' of SP movement vs news events, it is essential not just to pick out one isolated example that suits ones agenda, but to be able to give a likely explanation for virtually every 'SP movement vs event' in every stock. The 'reaction to news' theory just can't do this.Is it the news 'per se' that matters or ..Is it what the SP is doing at the time the news is released that determines how traders will react to it ? Let's continue the QFI journey in the hope of discovery.'Case in point, have a look at SOU... for a whole year up to the end of jun 2016.. sat in a 14-16p range... then over the last 3 months gone from 16p to £1.02p'---------- ---------- ---------- ------Well, it's not a stock I'm very familiar with, but a cursory look at the chart again shows that the 'devil is in the detail'.The really good news of 'hydrocarbon strikes' didn't start being released until mid July. this time the strong up-trend had already been established, with the stock having already travelled by then a high % of it's september high. This does seem to fit with what I've suggested about good news coming at 'convenient' points in a SP cycle. But, I'm not going to say that you're wrong in your assumption. Essentially, the exact 'reason' for a SP move isn't important. It's getting onto them early in order to try and make money which counts. So anything which gives us a 'hedge' as traders or investors has got to be a good thing.Of course, being able to identify what a SP is likely to do is only part of the story and doesn't mean one will necessarily make a profit. As we have seen with QFI, the market makes it incredibly difficult to maintain a profitable position in any stock. There is a rationale for this also, which again I'll discuss in due course.Thanks for the feedback Rob, good discussion.PJ
Re: QFI technical analysis "There could be a test for the option I've just described. If the SP is actually dictating how events are interpreted by investors, then is it possible to fairly accurately predict when very good or bad news will be released, simply by looking at a price chart ?"========== ========== ========== ========== ========== ========== ========== ====I think that would be epic if it worked that way!Case in point, have a look at SOU... for a whole year up to the end of jun 2016.. sat in a 14-16p range... then over the last 3 months gone from 16p to £1.02pNot sure that move could predicted on your idea above..? The news flow there on their gas discovery has pushed that up imo..
Re: QFI technical analysis 'perhaps sentiment / PI fatigue.. many waiting till nearer the time to buy more.. as most are tired of seeing money ebb away.'---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---Interesting observation Rob.I would think that virtually every man and his dog are of the opinion that MSAR will be a success in shipping. So why do you think money is ebbing away ?What do you think is the most important aspect driving the SP ? Is it the close proximity of the product 'event' ? Or ..is it actually what investors see happening to their money ? This is an important distinction.Although we've seen some fairly bullish news events over the past week, I've already stated in advance that the SP is very likely to drop below 12p before long. That view isn't based on the proximity of good company outcomes even though the outcomes do look good.'Surely there has to be a point where the price moves in expectation of that event.. but if its 6 months away why would it be now? Why not 3 months, 2 months etc?---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- -----Yes ..if the SP follows the 'event' there will be a time very close to the event when the SP starts to rise rapidly ( possibly based on insider knowledge). As you say, if that is 6 months down the line, we maybe shouldn't expect the SP to be rising rapidly now. But, that still doesn't explain why the SP is many orders of magnitude nearer to the lows than to the highs.There is another possibility and below I turn your idea on it's head. I would urge you not to dismiss this option out of hand. I wouldn't take my word for it either, but I would consider the possibility below whilst keeping close track of the SP progression in QFI, and come to your own conclusions over time.What if .the SP doesn't track the expectation of the 'event' at all. What if the SP merely does it's own thing and what are considered 'important' company events just happen to appear at convenient times in the SP progression.This would certainly explain why some news events seem to have far more 'significance' for the SP than other news events, often surprisingly so.There could be a test for the option I've just described. If the SP is actually dictating how events are interpreted by investors, then is it possible to fairly accurately predict when very good or bad news will be released, simply by looking at a price chart ?PJ
Re: QFI technical analysis Interesting stuff PJ, with regards to point 2.. perhaps sentiment / PI fatigue.. many waiting till nearer the time to buy more.. as most are tired of seeing money ebb away.Surely there has to be a point where the price moves in expectation of that event.. but if its 6 months away why would it be now? Why not 3 months, 2 months etc?
Re: QFI technical analysis 'I think most people find your posts to be interesting and thought-provoking, and at the very least, a contrasting view to the "fundamentals" perspective on how the share is behaving.---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----Yes, the posts should challenge the thinking of the fundamentalist investors, particularly those who tend to think that a SP 'treads water' until a pivotal piece of news is received. As always though it is difficult to challenge something that one has always believed to be true.Many will have always thought that TA is only useful in identifying where a SP has already been. It is therefore very hard to consider that it might be the best guide to where a SP is going in the future.My technical posts will be 'interpreted' differently by each individual and much depends upon having an 'open-mind'. This isn't meant to be a criticism, as having an open-mind isn't as common-place as people like to think. They will often make excuses or come up with hindsight reasoning to try and justify their own expectations.Some might want to reflect on their own thoughts to the questions below.1) Why do you think the 'promising' news events of the past week had such little effect upon the SP ? They certainly appeared to be very bullish in the overall scheme of things. 2) With the company now potentially only months from an apparent ground-breaking commercial sign-off, would one have expected the SP to currently be hanging around 3 year lows ?Bear in mind that the shipping fuel is considered well over 90 % likely to succeed in the trial. Would you not expect the SP to be challenging past highs from a fundamentalist point of view ?PJ
Re: Maersk t. wodewickI had a little wobble when the first snippets of news about this Maersk intended split surfaced.If our little investment project was not core to the new businesses blah, blah.But having thought about this, we are very well placed to help support the Logistics business through reducing costs and helping to solve the ECA demands (reduced fuel costs help support scrubbers) maybe even working with our partners EPC bramble Island, to put their additive into heavy residue MSAR to produce a ECA fuel for when Maersk ships are working in ECA areas?I get the new stream of opportunity also to place MSAR MMU's close to the upstream source to convert heavy residues for steam generation etc and allow greater returns at the well head. But this won't concern Maersk Energy too much if they are consolidating and selling off/spinning out those upstream parts of their business that might have benefited.We have partners/customers in those areas I am sure. It will only take one to get that little spark a roaring flame!Quite happy at present and filled up over last few weeks.Thanks for the news item
Re: SERVAL Is there enough 'evidence' out there to suggest the Serval should be followed closely?Who said that no other ships had used the Algeciras bunkering before Serval, and is that accurate?I will follow instead of the Tukang if we feel there is any value?There is a firm agreement on the boards that Seago is our target ship with Wartsila engine.regards to all
Re: QFI technical analysis PJ. Irrespective of whether or not they agree with or fully understand TA, I think most people find your posts to be interesting and thought-provoking, and at the very least, a contrasting view to the "fundamentals" perspective on how the share is behaving. I would encourage you not to be put off by the odd sarcastic jibe that comes your way.All the best.Incitatus
Re: QFI technical analysis This isn't an easy topic to understand but we'll get there...Get where?Aww.. teach us how gravity works instead? Or what the Giza pyrimids were built to do?
Re: Maersk t. Note to myself. Don't send posts on your iPad at your age. Stick with the computer you just about understand.