Crude oil price . Just a quick post about the likely price of oil going forward.We know that the Quadrise Fuels product MSAR is not wholly dependent upon the crude price and the QFI stock price isn't always correlated with crude.At the start of 2016, the price of crude fell to around $26. At this point the trend changed abruptly into bullish mode and the price of crude quickly reached just below $52 in early june. A correction took place at this point and the price dropped to around the $39 handle.Crude has once again re-gained an up-trend and the price looks bullish for the next several years now. I would anticipate crude reaching around $60 - $70 dollars over the next 2 years.Whilst this isn't forced to have much influence on QFI, it is at least comforting to know that the oil price will likely be 'generally supportive' to MSAR, at least until it has probably become established within its target fields.PJ
QFI technical analysis As tot has mentioned the monthly chart (longer-term chart) is showing a bullish candlestick and the moving averages are coming into line indicating that the stock should again be running higher once this correction is over.We can drill into the shorter-term charts to try and get a handle on the current correction.As mentioned middle of last week, the current correction has now over-lapped with the prior swing high of the 11th August at 13.25p and this is important because the over-lap confirms that this correction is bigger than the previous ones. The weekly chart shows a more bearish candlestick ( dark cloud cover), and with the momentum indicators now breaking below trend-line support, we should anticipate the correction has further to run yet.The current low for this correction is 12.7p. The daily chart indicates support at 12p at which point there is also a 'gap' in the hourly charts. This could well be the next target.If the correction is indeed going to be deeper, a very common target would be the 50% Fib re-trace of the entire move higher from 8.2p in late July. This point comes in at 11.6p and this would be a significant point should the SP fall that low. Any bullish candlestick forming around this area might be a good point to add to long positions.Of course the problem with anticipating corrections is that they can sometimes be much deeper than we expect. The market is not obliged to follow our views on it. Phasing-in 'buys' gradually as the correction progresses might be a good strategy for those watching who have yet to take a position.Traders might well not add to long positions until they have confidence that the correction is over, as this lowers risk.I would be confident that this correction is over above 14.5p, although the more risk averse might prefer to wait for a new high.PJ
Re: Recruiting again Good package for a young engineer. Look forward to seeing the calibre of the guy or girl appointed. Good weekend one and all. TH2
Re: Recruiting again Good package for a young engineer. Look forward to deeing the calibre of the guy or girl appointed. Good weekend one and all. TH2
Recruiting again This is encouraging: [link]
PJ Very happy to say you're now off the ignore list (well it wasn't a list as such, with a solitary member), and thanks for the recent informative postsNow a bit of good news to move the SP up would be niceOops forgot, it doesn't work that way does it . . .
Re: QFI ..FAO PJ Well I've had PJ on ignore since he started abusing me, so I had to log out to see all the posts in this thread, and must say I am gobsmacked by his change in style, and an apology to boot! For my sins I must admit to becoming a little over excited a couple of years back as the share price raced towards 50p and might have been guilty of little schadenfreude at his expense, for not calling the rise from 14p (the opposite in fact) so I am happy to apologise for that and let bygones be bygones. You are now off ignore and I have even given you a blue tick. You did call the drop from the peak around 50p pretty accurately I must say, but the recent news on Saudi shows that you can't always rely on TA in a stock like this which has the ability to surprise the markets. However I have educated myself to a basic level about the dark arts of TA over the last couple of years, perhaps as a consequence of bitter experience, and now pay it more respect. Indeed I have used it to good effect with CFDs on FTSE stocks, but I think that using leverage on stocks like this with a big spread and the likelihood of gaps up or down on news is a mugs game.For the life of me I still can't understand why you can't post a chart even if it's just a basic one using the tools available on this site. On the one month candlestick chart here you can only select two moving averages, so this chart doesn't show the recent crossover of the 20 day EMA with the 50 day, which i saw as a bullish signal, but what it does show is the 20 day EMA rapidly approaching a cross with the 200 EMA and the 200 day EMA currently proving support. Should the sp stay above that line until that crossover is achieved that would be a very bullish sign would it not?ATB,T
Re: Revenue from trials 46G,I suspect the true answer is as closely guarded as the password for the launch of our seaborne nukes. (BTW I'm reliably informed by the experts in the Dog and Whistle that it is PasSwOrd)Given that both these projects are driven by our partners, I would imagine that the answer is 'small but steady'. As the company has an established MO of getting paid for it's technical assistance and research work, and we have also supplied kit for both trials, there will be something going into the kitty, but as to the real sum who knows?Steady as she goes.TH2
Re: QFI ..FAO PJ A couple of weeks ago I couldn't see myself ever voting up a PJ comment, but his recent postings have been worth reading and I too feel as if I might learn something in time (well at least for a few moments until the feeble grey cells let it go again involuntarily). Its a pleasure to see a return to civil discourse - long may it continue amongst all concerned whether we wait for our ship to come in or prefer to gamble on the current price of a share in it.
Re: QFI ..FAO PJ It takes a strong person to apologise publicly in that way for past behaviour.I take my hat off.Moving on, I thought your point about 'probabilities' most interesting and it gave me new perspective about what TA is trying to do. Very useful. Might even start digging a bit deeper............Incitatus
Re: QFI ..FAO PJ Thanks for the message incitatus.I have in the past been intolerant of others on these boards which I think was probably borne out of the frustration of not being able to make myself understood, which isn't any real excuse anyway. I think you are right about posters being free to exchange views without fear of coming under attack and so i'd like to apologise to anyone I have offended over the years, particularly TOT who has often been an unnecessary target.f32 has often mentioned that there was a 'better way' for my postings and I understand that now. Personality wise, I'm not a show-off, and being an ex-teacher I do genuinely enjoy helping others.I'm glad if you and some others are learning something of TA. It would be easier to follow with charts but my hands are tied on that one. I do trade QFI quite a lot and so it's no real trouble for me to post my thoughts from time to time.The stock isn't high volume and some would say not ideally suited to TA, but some of these small AIM stocks do have quite strong sentiment patterns.I won't always call things correctly of course, and one of the things I'm keen to get over to a wider audience is that we are constantly dealing with 'probabilities', and things can always go the 'other way'. An important part of TA therefore is simply identifying the points for both the 'bullish' and 'bearish' scenarios. Some people simply won't like this and will liken it to 'hedging ones bets' or 'calling it both ways'.Hopefully though, over time, I'd like to think that most might be able to see some use for TA in their investing/trading and might even be motivated to learn more themselves if suitable.Thanks again,PJ
Re: QFI ..FAO PJ Hi PJ,A couple of weeks ago I wrote a post that was sharply critical of posters (such as yourself at that time) who were abusive and intolerant of the opinions of others. May I say that I find your recent posts to be a delight to read. They are interesting and informative and give an insight into the nuances of TA of which I was unaware.......and there is not a hint of ill-feeling anywhere in sight. Great!!To me, it is unimportant whether someone is an advocate of TA or 'fundamentals', or both or neither: the whole point of these Boards is to enable people to exchange information and opinion without fear of abuse or ridicule. I now read your posts with great interest and will closely follow your future offerings on this Board.All the best.Incitatus
Re: QFI .. 'As many have pointed out, there is a large seller in the market so it might be worth factoring that alongside your charts.'---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- --Thanks Hub, but it wouldn't make any difference to the charts. Charts only take 'Price' and 'time' into account.It doesn't matter who a seller is or what size trade they make, the chart will still anticipate the move, if interpreted correctly.Charts follow patterns of human behaviour which are very consistent. The pattern of buying/selling is very fluid. At certain points many buyers will become sellers, and many sellers will become buyers.It's not a case of TA adding to the swings, it's more a case of TA anticipating the direction the swings will likely take, so that a lower risk position can then be taken.In actual fact, large speculators are eventually stranded on the wrong side of the market. If you look at the gold and silver market right now, the very large hedge funds and billionaires have been massively moving into gold for several weeks now. They have taken an extreme number of LONG positions, even though the price of the metals is currently falling very sharply. This is usually the case with large speculators. The smart money is that of the commercials ( insiders), who have been taking an extreme number of SHORT positions in precious metals over the same period. It's a strong indicator of a gold price decline when the large speculators are overly 'long' and the smart money is overly 'short'.The market is counter-intuitive.Any news releases also won't make any difference to the TA. If you follow the analysis over the long term you'll likely discover that the TA will tend to anticipate a SP rise 'before' any positive news is released.When TA anticipates a SP fall, you'll likely get news further down the line that isn't 'interpreted' very well.It's been demonstrated many times that 'news' lags SP by upto 3 months.regards,PJ
Revenue from trials I wondered if anyone has a view on the expected revenues that QFI will receive from either or both of the trail listed below?1) Maersk Line operational trial to provide 4,000 hours of engine operation on MSAR®.2) the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia on the production to combustion pilot programme trail.46G
Re: QFI .. PJ,As many have pointed out, there is a large seller in the market so it might be worth factoring that alongside your charts.As patterns go, seller was happy to clear stock at 10p+ not long ago due to lack of demand/buyers for the stock. Saudi news put QFI back on map and volume returned. Seller began offloading again in larger chunks and continued to do so until volume dried up. Seller now drip feeding sells at moderate pace as does not want sp to drop back to 10p as they much prefer dumping into the 13p level.When seller is cleared or stops for a period, then you are likely to see upward movement albeit sometimes on lighter volume.TA followers add to the swings but it is the large seller that has and will dictate QFI's sp near term.Intertrust still have around 48 million shares. Over last 18 months they appear to have dumped around 20 million shares which is not easy against average traded volume of approx 500k per day.The poor market back drop has not helped.Hurricance Energy had a similar size seller which like QFI forced the sp to below 10p. As soon as the seller was close to drying up, they released news of placing and drill programme. Sp pre results is 30p today.So all in all - TA working well in news absent periods but large seller responsible for downtrend and potentially there is still another decent 6 months+ of this if they continue as they are.HUB