Oh Dear - Hope this Hovis Driver is OK? [link] to the share price. I posted earlier that I was mildly impressed by the latest results, but felt that there were some issues, so despite what pyueck giving a 'Buy' recommendation the share price seems to have gone nowhere. I suspect that it is not going to do anything until some numbers come up.As for the departure of the CEO - has he been overpaying himself with lots of bonuses at the expense of the pension funds? One could suggest that after Carillion that a number of CEO's are looking over their shoulders!The B
CEO Hearing he is about to go. Any news?
Re: Another good set of results Plenty of free advertising on radio 2 Chris evens this morning
Another good set of results Well I think these results are very good, especially in conjunction with the previous trading update. The first quarter results this fy were dire and its good to see the promised recovery in the rest of the year actually playing out.I agree the results from pfd are always a focus on the good aspects and yes clearly sweet treats has not performed so well which gets glossed over. In this market so much of revenue movement depends on promotional activity. Sell mr Kipling cakes for 99p a pick they will fly off the shelves, at £1.99 they wont.Think the ebitda to debt ratio always a totally meaningless metric, no idea why management would ever choose this metric. Why ignore interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation when working out if debt is affordable! Good though to see debt coming down and a sale of batchelors at a good price would be good in my book as this company is still shackled in debt before it will be able to even think about dividends. Events such as carillion really focus the mind on companies with big debts.
Good in Parts Q3 - Trading Statement On the face of things, sales have improved in Q3, with noodles and mince pies doing well! Press reports that Batchelors (ie including noodles) is up for sale seems to smack of selling one of the few bits that shows some life (as did Quorn!!)!It is a typical PF report that tries to give a glowing account of things and sometimes gives prominence to news that seems to be insignificant in the overall picture (eg as enviable that it may be, low sugar Mr Kipling cakes gets lots of coverage - but is unknown value - is it really significant in this trading statement?).Initially they gloss over the significant fall (7.3%) in branded Sweet Treats that shows a major deterioration over the quarter. Digging deeper it seems that they have cut back on promotional activity resulting in poorer sales of Cadbury and Mr Kipling. Plus short term capacity constraints with Cadbury.... it then goes on about low sugar Mr Kipling!!!Under their cost reduction programme they hit a problem with their supply chain costs. They hit problems in Phase 1 of the warehousing etc upgrade - and we have 2 more upgrades to look forward to before they get the full benefits.No clues as to profit, although they expect to have lower debt by the end of the year. Then they throw in the usual carrot of debt/EBITDA will reduce in future years - these future years always seem in the future to me!!Overall, despite my reservations, these results don't look too bad, but I would really like to see how the trading profit and pension deficit changed over the year.The B
Re: Bought In 'encouraging signs '- love to know where to find them!
Bought In Could be a turnaround hereStill very close to 52 week low but encouraging sign
Come on the market! To be fair today's results were not half bad. Share price is up 6%, but it was down almost the same amount yesterday. Would have expected a 20-25% jump on these results as the picture is far rosier than in Q1. Harsh.
Where is Q2 Trading Update Last year the Q2 Trading Update was on the 12th October. It is now 13th. Late announcement of results often means that they are not as good as expected. No sign of strength in the shares pre-announcement either. With the likes of Tesco reporting better results helped by working closely with their suppliers, is PFD going to announce higher turnover but profit not as good as hoped for - or indeed needed to pay off the pension contributions, debt and for investment in the business?No clues with first trades - the market in PFD seems to be dead at the moment - at 08:22 there have been just 10.3k of trades. (Down slightly at 38.75-39.25p - this is still just above my buy back price that I posted months ago).The B
Half year results 15 November 2017. Premier Foods will announce its for the 26 weeks ended 30 September 20 Half year results17 on Wednesday, 15 November 2017. A presentation for analysts and investors will be webcast live at 90am, and hosted by Gavin Darby, CEO and Alastair Murray, CFO. A recording of the webcast will be available on the Company's website later in the day. A conference call for bond investors and analysts will also be hosted by Gavin Darby and Alastair Murray the same day at 1:30pm. To register for this call, current and prospective bond investors and analysts please e-mail email@example.com.
Re: A Small Positive Sign Excellent analysis.And RHM Surplus may be ignored anyway under new accounting rules proposed by Regulators.
A Small Positive Sign In my books the PFD pension deficit is one if not the most important financial drivers for PFD's future, so I had a quick look at the likely change in the predicted deficit since the PFD final results came out in May 2017 using the discount rate and inflation assumptions used by Tesco in their report out today.The Tesco results out today calculated its pension deficit by using a discount rate of 2.8% whereas PFD last used a discount rate of 2.65%.Since an increase in discount rate reduces pension deficit by £84m, then the 0.15% increase from 2.65% to 2.8% equates to a reduction of about £126m in the predicted PFD pension deficit.Conversely inflation used by Tesco was 3.1%, whereas PFD appear to use 3.3%. So PFD would record an increase in inflation of 0.2%. A 0.1% increase in inflation increases PFD's pension deficit by £38.6m, so a 0.2% in inflation will increase the deficit by £77.2m.So just considering these terms alone, the PFD pension deficit (if worked out now) would be reduced by about £50. Or perhaps more importantly has not increased to even more challenging levels!However, the calculation gets a bit messy if one splits out the RHM pension (in surplus) from the PFD pension (deficit of £489m). I think that the RHM surplus is a red herring and that one should only consider the PFD deficit.Last year the Q2 trading update came on 12th October, so not long now before the 2017 Q2 update comes, although it will not be until November that the half year report comes out and shows updated pension deficit calculations.The B
Motleyfool, 2 Bargain Stocks you... Premier Foods (LSE: PFD) hasnt been a robust earnings generator in recent years as difficult trading conditions have smacked the top line. But City analysts believe the business is about to turn a corner and enjoy a period of sustained earnings growth.For the year to March 2018 Premier Foods is predicted to report a 10% profits improvement, and to follow this with an extra 6% improvement in fiscal 2019.....Link to continue reading....[link]
Re: I won't forget September last years excu... I have just checked the weather outlook for September and can confirm that things are certainly looking good for roast dinners. I would anticipate Brexit related excuses this time, perhaps the uncertainty is putting people off buying rice puddings.
I won't forget September last years excuse A message to you Mr Darby. I won't forget your excuse for last years Q2 poor trading, a warm September stopping people having roast dinners. So I have decided to follow this months weather closely, so you are held to account.Well one Sunday down in September this year and it was wet and perfect weather for a Roast Dinner. Based on your excuses last year I fully expect sales to be well up, otherwise management really must be dire. You also said in the latest results that you were expecting the results to bounce back in the rest of the year.This surely must be his last chance. There can be no excuses any more, there are none.