Comment in FT (LKH?) This was posted under a Lex article this morning. In the style of an old friend of this site?Ashurbanipal 2 hours agoHas Melrose "repeatedly delivered on its promises"? The Brush biznay doesn't appear to be responding particularly well to the Melrose Kool-Aid.Mind you, the Dana advertisement in today's FT is an interesting [worrying?] one for those tempted to stick with the incumbent GKN management's cunning plan to fold Driveline into Dana. In particular the photograph of James Kamsickas, Dana's CEO, is quite extraordinary. The feller is shown leaning against a wall as if incapable of standing on his own two feet .... and that wall appears to be constructed of Jenga blocks. I'm not a GKN shareholder mesen but, if I were, that photo would go a long way towards undoing the pretty good story that the text of the ad tells.
Re: Hard to predict Another strong statement from Melrose this morning with mention of Nortek disposal being brought into the equation. Plus the increased holdings by Merrill Lynch (up from 5.22% to 6.5%)last week, all in all looks like the fight is being won.GKN have some credibility issues with their BoD issuing unsubstantiated statements (fake news) which have now been retracted. Lost all sense of control?? If it's 'lost', then we Melrose holders will have our bonanza with Nortek and Ergotron sales! Win-win for us, but GKN will fall back heavily, I think. Dana deal is nothing like the value it appears, and undervalues Driveline far more than the value MRO will add in the coming months/years.My predictions are grossly unreliable though - I'd expect a close run fight with MRO winning a split decision. There y'go, I've said it now. If this is a win for MRO, I'd expect the SP to rise a good few percent, falling back in time to around the current levels holding steady until the first market trading report is issued (Sept/Oct time). But by year end we should be in the £2.75 - £3 range.
Re: Hard to predict I tend to think that the Melrose bid will succeed but, I then expect the sp to weaken as interest recedes after the takeover. This is the usual pattern and does not concern me as a longer term holder. I sold my GKN shares at 428 p and if the sp does weaken to below 200p I can always top up a bit. Add in current market instability with interest rate and trade war concerns it is good to keep some powder dry. (Sp 220p)
Hard to predict What the share price will do if the bid is successful, or if it fails.
Sunday Times Short-term hedge funds now control about 25% of GKNs shares raising expectations that the FTSE 100 engineer will lose its battle for independence this week.
Re: Airbus back pedals. Its like Tesco charging suppliers for prime shelf space.A positive for Melrose. Before it was we wont use you. Now we will if you invest in R and D.
Re: Airbus back pedals. wot airbus are saying iswev'e got no money to do our own r&d so we rely on our suppliers for that facility
Re: Airbus back pedals. SoundMy experience with Lupo is that he takes everything at face value if it is in favour of what he is supporting. No grey anywhere. He will argue that black is white.
Re: Airbus back pedals. "More noteworthy is that Airbus felt it necessary to have to issue the warning to MRO. Airbus are well aware of MRO's record of asset stripping, and their poor record on performance post the first year's or half year's performance."Now, now Lupo. What reputation as an asset stripper are you referring to? Apart from some ill conceived press comment no such reputation exists.Of course they do have an outstanding record as an asset enhancer. No doubt you will be able to differentiate the difference if you take a moment to think this through.M
Re: Airbus back pedals. Ho, ho.Not very good at reading between the lines,care you Lupo.
Re: Pensions Good God, you are right for once!!!Still very predictable response.If you look at the FT article yesterday Trustees say they are happy with both pension proposals, as interpreted by Mercer.
Re: Airbus back pedals. Not "positive" at all, Airbus stated that they warned MRO on R&D, but added that it applied to GKN post a failed hostile bid, too, which, of course, they felt obliged to do. GKN, obviously, are well aware of Airbus requirements.More noteworthy is that Airbus felt it necessary to have to issue the warning to MRO. Airbus are well aware of MRO's record of asset stripping, and their poor record on performance post the first year's or half year's performance.
Re: Pensions PF - "Old news from this morning Lupo."No, it was published at 13.30, you've not understood - yet again.
Re: Airbus back pedals. I should have added that this is reported by the FT. Whole article online.
Airbus back pedals. Reports of the conference call say Airbus expects both Melrose AND GKN to maintain R&D budgets whoever wins. This is a change from the threat not to use GKN if Melrose win.Very positive.