Hi, can anyone explain the 19% drop on Friday please?
Valuation Jimmy, Agree it’s very undervalued. In a note on PVR, Cenkos assigned $1.77/bbl to barryore yesterday (researchtree note) given the frontier nature of the field. Nevertheless, that still gives quite a gap in valuation for pvr and Logp. Hopefully positive news flow will raise awareness and the sp. it’s been a long wait… All the best, Mark.
Valuation Logp are currently valued at $0.64 per bbl of independent certified pre development reserves with huge upside to come pr development drilling which is now fully financed by the Chinese. Should be at least $3.00 per bbl valuation. Drilling starting in q3 so should be a good run up in the price. Jimmy
Barry roe update by PVR Pvr issued corporate presentation. The fully farmed out drill program for at least four wells will lead to a development plan. Importantly one well will drill deep Barry roe and flow test the already proven oil in place of 788 million bbl, estimated to add circa 200 million of recoverable oil to the already proven 346 million bbl at Barry roe. Logp is full funded with a carry of 10% for this imminent drill program . Incredible value here , at these levels logp will surely be bought out as the market cap is way too low for so much proven oil. Jimmy
Barry roe deal done I think the appointment of angus to the Pvr board was critical to the success of Barry roe. JOS is an exploration geologist and a difference to skill set required to bring the 3D seismic at Barry roe to be used for production planning instead of exploration. I cannot say for certain who was responsible in Pvr for the introduction of uk company seismic image processing to remove seismic multiples at Barry roe and hence directly image the thin reservoirs. This was the key event and farm out with Chinese quickly followed. Given that this took so long to occur after drilling in 2012 I suspect that angus was the key influence here. Jimmy
Barry roe deal done Sorry, How pivotal, not “has”.
Barry roe deal done Jimmy, Has pivotal do you think is the appointment of Angus McCoss as Senior Independent Director, to PVR, for the forthcoming 5-7 well drilling plan? Divmad
Barry roe deal done Divmad. The Celtic sea is unloved because of its poor track record in commercial discoveries to date. The major upside is actually deep barryroe. The other assets would certainly benefit from the new seismic technology to remove seismic multiples. However, the key risk is top seal integrity during late basin inversion. I think they might be interesting after thoughts once barryroe is in production. I think the major upside for PVR is SPANISH POINT which has been put on the back burner and does not look like anything happening for a few years. Jimmy
Barry roe deal done Jimmy23, Do you think that APEC is eyeing up PVR, in addition to the BarryRoe field potential, for PVR’s other Celtic Sea licences that border on the BarryRoe geographical area? I am wondering how big the synergies might be of any future exploration/development there (which also might help to explain why the bigger interest in PVR in the market since the FOA was announced).
Barry roe deal done Divmad. The issue with logp is that it’s effectively a single asset company and hence investors looking at Pvr with its wider portfolio. The value is certainly here. But because this share price has languished for so long many long term holders are recovering their investment as the price moves up. Also pvr PR spin is far more effective than LOGP, hence the trailing valuations. The data supports a higher valuation and this has been validated by the farm out to APEC. I have no other explanations, at some point investors will sell Pvr and but LOGP which will help remove the arbitrage in valuations. Jimmy
Barry roe deal done Jimmy, it’s more than 3 weeks since this farm out deal was announced. Plenty of time for the market to adjust to this price discovery, so why hasn’t it got much closer to closing the valuation gap?
Barry roe deal done Currently valued at $0.53 per bbl of net independent certified 2c reserves and fully carry through next drilling program . Should be $5. O0 per bbl Jimmy
Barry roe deal done Should read based on one hundred thousand bbl of oil per day at peak production. J
Barry roe deal done Tony o Reilly on sky news. Cost of finding and lifting oil to be $25 per bbl which at $80 per bbl is worth £317000net profit per day at peak production of 1000000 bbl per day or current market capitalization is equivalent to 41 days peak production. Incredible value for such low risk. Jimmy
Barry roe deal done Hard to believe this share price has not at least trebled from here. With a carried interest in five wells and ten per cent interest in 346 million bbl and a market capitalization of only £10.5 million the market has noticed logp. Seems to me they will be ripe for a takeover, and it will be a multiple of this share price and still be great value to an acquirer who gets all the upside of the deeper oil at barryroe. Take your position because this will happen quickly. J