Re: OT/ DB Deutsche Bank As Deutsche Bank shrinks, its home market stagnates Matthew Lynn Matthew Lynn24 May 2018 10:19pmAs anyone who has followed the troubles of Royal Bank of Scotland over the last decade will know, it takes a lot to kill off a major bank. They can hang around for a heck of a long time after everyone has forgotten what they were for. And yet, even by the standards of the big beasts of the global finance industry, the once mighty Deutsche Bank has been a very long time dying. This week saw yet another retrenchment, with another 7,000 job losses, a veiled profits warning and little to promise its shareholders apart from more pain to come.Piece by piece, Deutsche is gradually dismantling itself, morphing from an institution with plans to match the likes of Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan Chase, trade for trade, to a parochial German lender.That is disappointing for the bank, of course, for its remaining staff, and for its long-suffering shareholders. But it also signals something more significant. Germany is meant to be the powerhouse of the European economy. Yet its corporate giants look increasingly tired, old-fashioned and threatened. Very few new companies are coming though to replace them. It doesnt matter that much whether Germany has a major global investment bank anymore but it does matter if the country isnt competing in the industries of the future.Christian Sewing has lost little time in stamping his authority on Deutsche since taking over from the hapless British-born John Cryan as chief executive earlier this year. At the banks AGM today he announced that staff numbers would be cut from close on 100,000 to under 90,000, a move that added to the speculation that the bank would concentrate on domestic German lending. The shares dropped another 5pc on the news, taking them down to just a fraction over 10 (£8.76).It is all a far cry from Deutsches swaggering heyday under Josef Ackermann, when it seemed ready to take on the world. The bank was meant to sweep up the spare capital from one of the worlds most industrious nations of savers and deploy its immense financial muscle around the world, both to crush all the opposition in the banking industry and service Germanys mighty export machine.Deutsche BankAs Deutsche steps back, the business will be taken over by American, French, British and, increasingly, Chinese rivals Credit: Dan Kitwood/Getty ImagesAs a theory, it was perfectly good. The trouble came, as it so often does, with putting it into practice. It stumbled through acquisitions and expansions, spending money like someone staggering out of a Bierkeller at two in the morning. Along the way, however, it rarely seemed to be able to make a respectable return on all the capital it was spending.As anyone who has read Michael Lewiss classic description of the last crash, The Big Short, will know, The Germans as they were known dismissively on Wall Street would end up buying any old rubbish. In the summer of 2007, before the crash, Deutsches shares traded above 80 a piece. Since then, they have lost more than 70pc of their value. It is no longer one of the biggest banks in Europe, never mind the world.Of course, the jobs cuts are a mixed blessing for the City. Deutsche employs more than 8,500 people in Britain, most of them in London. As it retreats from the capital markets, it is those staff that will be hit hardest. That said, the finance market is fluid, and as Deutsche steps back, the business will be taken over by American, French, British and, increasingly, Chinese rivals."The bank stumbled through, like someone staggering out of a Bierkeller at 2am"Many former Deutsche executives will simply go to work for them. On top of that, its troubles will weaken Frankfurts pretensions to rivalling London after we leave the EU. It is hard to claim you are a major financial centre when you dont have a single home-grown bank that is a significant global play
piling into bank shares again Fund managers are piling into bank shares again should small investors follow suit?After 10 years of restructure, banks are becoming more popular with global investors who see great value in current share prices Credit: Carl Court /PA Harry Brennan 25 May 2018 70amTen years on from the financial crisis that led to the British taxpayer coughing up tens of billions to bail out the banks, professional investors are returning to the troubled sector.More fund managers are adding bank stocks to their portfolios and dedicating an increasingly significant proportion of their funds to them. A recent survey from Bank of America Merrill Lynch found that professional managers were more heavily invested in bank shares than in any other sector, relative to historical averages.Some fund managers believe that banks have become a less risky prospect after years of more stringent regulation. Potential interest rate rises should enable banks to expand profit margins, while they hold larger amounts of cash in reserve and there is the promise of larger dividends after a decade in which some stopped paying them altogether.Hugh Sergeant, manager of the £500m River & Mercantile World Recovery fund, said: The upshot for investors is that, after a decade of restructuring, many global banks now look set to be able to grow again. Despite these improvements, bank stocks still look cheap compared with the wider market. So, with the professionals piling in, is it time for DIY investors to follow suit?Value for moneyAlex Wright, manager of Fidelitys £3.3bn Special Situations fund, said regulation had been good for investors as it had forced banks away from more exotic and high-risk loans. Mr Wright owns five different bank stocks, including Lloyds, Citibank, RBS and Bank of Ireland. They account for around 14pc of his fund.He said banks had reverted to simpler forms of lending and another bad loans crisis was now less likely. So far, 2018 has been a good year for income investors. More banks are increasing their dividends and RBS is expected to resume its payment after about 10 years.Central bank interest rates around the world, including in Britain, are expected to begin rising. This will enable banks to increase the gap between the rates they lend at and the rates they offer savers, allowing them to make bigger profit margins. Reader Service: Get expert financial investment advice from our trusted partners St James PlaceThe reform that has taken place in the banking world is not yet widely reflected in share prices, making banks appear cheap on some metrics. The UK stock market has a price-to‑earnings ratio (p/e) of 17.5, according to investment firm Star Capital. This is a measure of how a companys current share price compares with its earnings over a 12-month period. comparison, Lloyds Banking Group has a projected p/e ratio of 8.9 over the next year, while Barclays is at 9.9, RBS at 11.1 and HSBC at 13.4, according to data from analysis service Stockopedia. HSBC is by far the most popular bank with fund managers and is among the top 10 holdings of 142 funds, according to Trustnet, a data provider. However, it is also the second largest company in Britain by market value, so is in the top 10 holdings of many index trackers and other funds that stick closely to an index. Lloyds is also a favourite for managers and can be found in the top 10 holdings of 90 funds. Barclays is in the top 10 holdings of 45, while RBS makes the top 10 for six funds.RisksOne threat to established lenders could come in the form of the smaller challenger banks. Smaller lenders are aggressively pursuing market share in traditional areas of banking such as mortgages and personal loans. Many offer rates that are far better than those available on the high street. Mark Peden, manager of the Kames Global Equity Income fund, said: Given the low barriers to entry in ba
Re: Heading back to 64p told you so Hello Viko,You have been a bit quiet for a few days. So no imminent rise to 70p? How about 64p?Final dividend day on Tuesday so I am looking for the price to remain lowish to enhance the number bought through my dividend reinvestment.Every cloud...F
Re: Re-invest Dividends Davala - good morningA common argument by economists it that in the long run their pet theory will come into being.Someone countered this with the statement in the long run ... we are all deadWill any Lloyds revival beat this deadline?
Re: Interesting listen Not particularly interested in it being Noel Edmonds, but was very much struck by his articulate and probing questioning and the embarrassing squirming of the Chairman, who was absolutely hopeless and very much speaking to their lawyers' script. A very feeble response that gives me no confidence at all that they're intent on cleaning up their pitiful act without a damage limitation fight. The fact that they're spending a billion a year on legal fees says it all. Tell the truth, pay what you owe and move on is my thought. Draw a line. And a change of Board members might help, though I don't hold out much hope. It's a revolving door for those who are happy to turn a blind eye. Disgraceful state of affairs.
The Long Run Thats what we are on.The Eagles got there first
Re: Re-invest Dividends You are probably right, but im here for the long run.It may just be a longer run than Id like
Re: Interesting listen This is probably a bit more interesting than listening to Noel Edmunds ...#Jack Dawson might like this ..[link]
Re: Carney's Off Again PTN - slags off the Mail and posts a Gruaniad link - oh dear.Thanks for not answering and also for reposting the sensible quotes from other posters, you're learning at last.
Interesting listen This is longish, but quickly draws you in after the first minute.[link]
Re: Carney's Off Again We were always going to be worse off for a while surely everyone knew that?========== ========== ========== ========== =BritneySpuds 18 of you brexit voters ticked this.========== ========== ===PTN - I see you're still posting your unsubstantiated drivel."The only ones who believed Project Fear was remain voters " sic========== ========== ========== =====BP we were talking about the statement above which says everyone knew we were going to be worse off. I cant remember any MAIL UKIP LEAVE BORIS headlines saying we would be worse off can you??Also good news its coming true......UK economy posts worst quarterly GDP figures for five years Growth slumps to 0.1% on weak business investment and household spending[link]
Link Shareholder Value to Boardroom pay? As the SP continues to go nowhere in fact relative to recent market highs the SP is showing a drop so unsure how AHO and his board can justify continuing to increase their rewards year on year by issuing themselves more and more shares?Surely this is boardering on currupt? Why was this not more prominently raised as an issue at the AGM?1 year -9%2 year -9%3 year -25%5 year+9%All at a time the market has shown positive gains.Surely the test of the value the board are adding is in the increase in value of the Company they run?Maybe it's time for a change & AHO to be ousted as clearly the Market do not trust the longer term plan to deliver?Remember AHO alone cost the Banking industry £billions with his decision to open the floodgates on PPI & his incredible underestimate of the amount it would cost Lloyds. Incompetent in its finest!
Re: OT/ DB Deutsche Bank 1034.4 long add..........................1038 closed + 3.6.ATBsoi
Re: Lloyds trade series. Added 65.30.UB.
Re: Carney's Off Again PTN - I see you're still posting your unsubstantiated drivel."The only ones who believed Project Fear was remain voters " sicI'm pleased you found the time to speak to all 17,410,742 leave voters to back up that statement.You really should stop posting as you make yourself look increasingly silly.