Down nearly 5% LGEN … XXXX These have done well of late hitting highs of 318p twice fell back with the corona spread to Europe market falls. Now 286p
A light trim I think you are right the final dividend more likely around 12.6p if it increases in line would give a total yield of 17.5p ish not 18p. That still means a progressive yeild of 5.5% at the current 317p share price. The risk is whether it will hold up at that sp or whether random developments will push it back deep into the 200’s again. I’ve noticed markets seem to be less tuned to Brexit rattling but LGEN has been astonishingly sensitive in recent years to all sorts of macro economic factors affecting Sterling and the UK economy. Well, I have been tempted to add at 317p this morning, and am hoping for the sp to advance strongly through the dividend cycle, so I can reconsider in a couple of months whether to hold or trim. If the sp gets eroded I will hold and may even add again.
A light trim Hi again Marktime. I have held a position in LGEN for a few years and have been accumulating further over the past 12 months, adding a further three tranches across the year. It is now currently the 6th largest holding in my portfolio, so this is large enough for me from a risk position and I don’t currently intend to add again this year. I would hope that there is still scope for further capital growth of perhaps 10% over the next 12-18 months, but that will depend largely on events in the overall market. Results as you say in a couple of weeks, and I would hope for a total full year dividend of circa 17.55p. I am pleased to be a shareholder here, and as with some other shares that you and I have discussed, I currently intend to hold these for the long term. To balance things out though, I have to confess that my 2nd largest holding at the moment is IMB, and I am currently sitting on a HOWLING paper loss there!! All the best BP
A light trim In contrast to the recovery in SSE share price, does LGEN still have plenty of steam? Up to 317p this morning not far off the 324p all-time-high surge after the election. Brokers still generally positive about the value and prospects of a sustained performance of 30p+ eps, looking at an outlook price up to 350p. And a strongly progressive c. 18p dividend covered more than x 1.5 would be a forward yield of 5+% on a p/e of under 12. Doesn’t sound over-cooked does it? Anticipation of good results in a couple of weeks (4 Mar ?) will fuel demand, beating 30p eps or 18p dividend will kick the sp on again. Has there been another mortality release, further growth from derisking pension schemes, has equity release business been super, has the pre-fab building adventure started to deliver, where is debt at … my guess is yes, yes, yes, probably not and debt risk exposure will be up as a consequence of taking on more pension scheme business. So solvency capital ratio down from 188% in Dec 2018 and 177% in June 2019 to somewhere 150-160%, but in this environment of sustained trivial debt cost so what. LGEN still safe as houses, and on those metrics a better pick than blue chip defensives. I will wait for the news and the new ISA window before adding, and will be trying hard to resist an offload in the meantime even if the sp does froth up over 350p.
A light trim Well it has been an exciting run up since adding at 232p in August so I have offloaded my top slice in LGEN today at 277p. It is a compelling long term hold at that price, I have a good chunk still, but it is a long wait until the big ex-div next April and who knows we could be back below 260p on a swing in sentiment. Meanwhile where to apply the proceeds. BP, RIO, BT, RMG … something with a prospective yield over 6% and a chance of a 10-20% recovery. Real estate did you say?
Down nearly 5% Yes, I think my investment in Lgen has paid off and I am expecting further gains. Fingers crossed. Frog in a tree
Down nearly 5% Quietly patting myself on the back for punting bravely. This may be a false dawn of course, a resurgence of Brexit and exchange rate gloom and we could slump back to 225p. But it shows with the cloud cover lifitng LGEN will (would) recover smartly to a par sp of say 275p. I am hoping for that sort of recovery in the run up to next years big div and may even hold for a further kick up from what I expect to be expectation-defying good results. Meanwhile sat overweight and looking forward to the “small” div payment on I think 26 Sep.
Down nearly 5% Have been looking at LGEN with a view to jumping in. My analysis is that even though it is taking on more bulk annuities and therefor has increasing AUM from which it should profit, it is not actually making that much more profit. This is because it is investing those incoming assets into property development, old folks houses, and AIM speculations. What I would be betting on is that LGEN can pick AIM winners (unlike woodford), can profit from build to let and build to sell, and that the property market stays solid enough to profit from old folks dying at their allotted time. It also needs to do this in the UK, US, and potentially China. A lot of long term risk in my view, but it may be able to profit in the short term as it will be taking a top slice from all the incoming funds before it can reposition them in the longer term. I might buy now and sell around the full year results, or maybe I should wait till 31st October as there will be more serious gnashing of investor teeth as That Date approaches and there is nothing on the horizon to lift the price before then. Hmmm
Down nearly 5% Just placed a fill or kill order for a final chunk at 232p ahead of the ex-div, at which share price my sums say this is a 7.5% forward yield on a p/e under 8 and cannot be ignored. The prospects indicated by the bulk annuity deals in the pipeline suggests another year of strong growth and dividend progress whatever the Brexit outcome. The sp has fallen (again) on the fear rather than the reality and in the face of buyers outnumbering sellers around 10:1 … as ever we are at the mercy of the market makers.
Down nearly 5% LGEN… XXXXX Was surprised when Geof told me he had taken his profit here. He was lucky down to 235p now. Noticed frog message below. I once held both the ones he just got paid out from.
Down nearly 5% Today I got paid off in respect of my Kingston Communications which has been taken over. I came out with a decent profit and I plan to use the proceeds to add to my Legal and General holding. I is offering a decent yield at the moment and doesn’t look too risky as far as I can tell. So its added to my list of regular investments for early next week. I am soon to be paid out on another takeover holding next week. BTG has also given me a decent profit. Cheers, Frog in a tree
Down nearly 5% From the chart! the recent fall looks to be Boris Johnson and Brexit related given that it matches the fall in sterling. Perhaps there is some worry that Brexit could damage its business? It does a fair proportion of its trade in overseas markets including the US and Asia which should provide something of a buffer to any damage it suffers in Europe. Perhaps I am missing something? Frog in a tree
Down nearly 5% Strange lack of confidence in LGEN which took a battering down to 225p the last time Brexit fears were at their most extreme. Yield rose to 8% or so. The sp then recovered fairly smartly as the big div came around. Hopefully it will do so again but I am not sure where the bottom will be this time, further to fall perhaps as we approach 31 Oct. Just in case I have added some at 243p and if it drops sharply before ex-div might add again. In my mind this is not so much bad news as a great buying opportunity, averaging down the cost of my holding while the dividend progresses. After all, business is great, LGEN are capturing a good slice of the pension transfer market and plenty of equity release too. Direct investment in affordable build-to-rent property development seems to complement that strategy perfectly. So what if that “strains” solvency down from 180% to 150%, all that means is we are deploying capital to make greater profits. Like you are supposed to in business! 150% solvency is still safe as houses. As far as I am aware there are no horrors in LGEN outlook and I have not come across any convincing broker analysis to justify why the sp has slumped, It must just be general Brexit and exchange rate gloom and the outlook for discount rates overshadowing the previous kick up from flatter longevity curves.
Down nearly 5% A decent set of interims this morning with another hike in the divi. It is now yielding over 6.5%. The p/e is around 8 and the sp is down from around 290 to 245 in three months. The report was optimistic and profits and earnings per share were up. Given that it has some international exposure it may be partially insulted against Brexit. It seems to me that L&G is unlikely to go belly up but does it have capacity to recover some of the lost value? Any takers? Frog in a tree
Risk Taking LGEN… XXXX Appears to be the last post from LK_H No surprise he thought this a good one .