JPMorgan Cazenove Upgrade [link] upgrades ITV as European broadcaster concerns 'overstated'UK broadcaster ITV was boosted by an upgrade from investment bank JPMorgan Cazenove, which views the European sector as markedly undervalued by the market, with addressable-TV a development that "will transform TV" for advertisers. Cazenove upped its recommendation on ITV to 'overweight' from 'neutral' but trimmed its 12-month target price to 185p from 204p, with ITV shares in November having fallen below 150p for the first time since 2013. Cheap valuations, low expectations and overstated structural concerns were among the main reasons for analysts' positive view of the sector, also leading to upgrades for the likes of Spanish broadcaster Atresmedia and German company RTL, but with Germany's ProSiebenSat the top pick. "The market has extrapolated from short term ad weakness to overstate structural concerns while it is overlooking new opportunities for growth," analyst Daniel Kerven said in a note on Tuesday. While some analysts express concern that traditional broadcasters face difficulties in an increasingly digital market, Kerven asserted that ITV and others are capable of adjusting. With viewing shifting from linear to 'time shifted' TV, online video and over-the-top (OTT), he said the impact is "mitigated by a vastly extended media day and TV continues to offer something unique to advertisers - enormous scale, fast reach, very high quality ad inventory and an attractive contextual environment for brand building". Subscription video on demand (SVOD) and addressable TV are two new developments that analysts feel offer more potential than threats. "Euro broadcasters have more to gain and less to lose than their US peers. SVOD competes for eyeballs but not ad revenues and drives lower pay-TV penetration and less fragmentation," Kervan said, noting that broadcasters can sell content into the global SVOD window, tap wholesale and retail distribution fees and offer targeted advertising. Addressable TV "will transform TV for viewers and advertisers" as it offer the ability to deliver targeted ads to individual households, giving consumers more relevant ads and advertisers data-driven targeting and capped frequency. "It will bring new local advertisers to TV and allow it to contest the larger and faster growing performance marketing opportunity - just one action per household per annum could double TV revenues."
Morgan Stanley reaffirms 'buy' on ITV [link] Stanley reaffirms 'buy' on ITVAnalysts at Morgan Stanley stuck by their 'buy' recommendation on shares of ITV and 230p target price, pointing to nine different factors to back up their investment thesis.Among those was the improving momentum in advertising trends, with advertising revenues seen starting to rise in the first three months of 2018 and growing by 5% in the second quarter of the same year.The company itself had also indicated that advertising in key categories of fast-moving-consumer goods and from grocers (35% of the total) were moving higher.As well, the company's good audience performance meant there was no impetus to increase underlying programme spend.Regarding the incoming chief executive, Morgan Stanley said discussions with the chairman indicated the new CEO was more likely to push for a 'refresh' rather than a "fundamental change".From a valuation standpoint, the then current share price implied a weighted average cost of capital of 10% and a terminal growth rate of 0.3%, whereas a WACC of 8.5% and terminal rate of 2.0% put the company's valuation at 230.0p a share.
Price is being pushed back below 1,50 Who is selling?
It is ok now! Morgan Stanley overweight ITV target 230p
Share Price slump .? Is anyone the wiser re the dropping share price here ..? ITV was (is) well run but since Crozier & Norman have moved on the SP has too but south .. ! ITV has always been tipped as a buy and I've been holding since since 2006 but this downward trend isn't right ..!
Re: watch list . Hi Ripley94, You are not alone and will not be the last in this ITV share price drop saga!!With so much talk of Media Mergers in the US you would have thought it would give ITV some support because of it's content and sterling's weakness of the past year.atb
Re: watch list . well my entry was to soon ( chat to broker once again ) topped up today @ 147p
intrigued not a holder, but have been evaluating possibility to buy.equally intrigued why the sp keeps dropping!SP PERFORMANCE:1 week down 3.51%1 month down 15.76%3 months down 10.32%6 months down 25.51% 1 year down 12.59%2 years down 44.39%on positive side:- New ex.EZY CEO coming on board- Dividend yield: c5%- the balance sheet looks stronger as Crozier exits - shares trading on 9.7 times expected earnings- possible take-over target? or at least has the means to bolt on further acquisitions?Is it all about Brexit induced doubts from it's Ad customers?welcome thoughts/view.rgdsvelvet
Interesting comment (Bloomberg) -- Were prepared if that happens, but thats not the focus of our time, Finance Director Ian Griffiths says at the Morgan Stanley TMT Conference in Barcelona, when asked whether John Malones Liberty Global might acquire the rest of ITV. * If Malone wants to buy ITV, the same as anybody else, were a public company and the board will do the right thing for the shareholders. Our job is to make the business as strong and as healthy as possible: Griffiths * Says there is no strategic partnership or preferential relationship between ITV and any of Malones companies * NOTE: Liberty Global has a 9.9% stake in ITV
Re: Broker snippets on trading update Still smell Goldman Sachs dirty dealing but maybe as you say the Brexit is the real problem.It's always darkest before the dawn so we will get a result with a fudged deal or WTO rules, let's just get on with it hopefully before Christmas. Would double up but already did so at 183p so -22% at present. Never mind will get it back in 4/5yrs so long as divi not cut.Good luck
Re: Broker snippets on trading update Well short-term advertising spend (other than Xmas) is probably going to be subdued (I guess even Xmas could be 'subdued' because it's relative to other Xmas) and the Brexit thing is weighing hard here - if in doubt (and there's plenty) sit on you hands and keep your powder dry is probably how a lot of businesses are thinking, I know I would be.Medium/long term who knows? But me, I think it will work out in the end, no matter what happens in the short-term so I've just bought a few at 150 (and tiny change).So if you ever wanted a short-term Sell signal there are few strong than me buying!Regards,ITDYA (3971 @ 150.0899 at 099)
Broker snippets on trading update With a bit of selective editing, as below... Overall, I'd say such comments reflective a clear 'consensus-cheap' view of ITV among brokers, but the market (and presumably, the big-boy investors) remain unimpressed.Who is right? Well, the latter, for now... of course they are, it's a self-fulfilling prophecy. But hard not to see the risk/reward, on anything other than a short term view, as VERY favourable now - if not, quite, a one-way bet (if only 'cos experience shows there is no such thing).INVESTEC"UK macros/ad prospects are tough near term, but the shares arguably discount this, with some M&A backstop plus a new well-regarded CEO from January 2018. Our probability-weighted PT (220p) is based on an ongoing SOTP (75% weighting) and bid potential (at a 30% premium). Valuation cheap on a CY18E P/E of 10x and full liability EV/EBITDA of 9x. FCF/dividend yield 6%/5%,,,Forecasts U/R if we flow through slightly better NAR to FY, this implies FY17E EPS c. +1.5% to 15.4p. We are cautious on changing FY18E given continuing UK Brexit issues and ITV comment on £15m extra costs next year. Current FY17/18E adj. FD EPS 15p/15p vs FactSet consensus at 16p/16p..."JEFFERIES"Derating unjustified: While recognizing the challenges posed by the current cyclical slowdown in ad spending, we remain positive on ITV as we expect 1) an inflection in NAR performance as outlined above, 2) the high growth and high margin OPI segment to capture larger audiences through ITV Hub, commanding greater pricing and sponsorship possibilities, 3) solid performance from ITV Studios, further diversifying the business, and 4) a dividend underpinned by a strong balance sheet.Valuation. ITV is the cheapest of the broadcasters, trading on 9.7x 2018E EPS vs. peers on 13.1x, or a 30% discount to the FTSE100 (vs. 5-year historic of +1%). Dividend yield of 7.8% (including special) and FCF yield of 10% support."SHORE CAPITAL"Current trading / outlook comments within this mornings statement indicate improving trends in all key revenue lines in Q3 and confirm that the company is on track to meet management expectations for the full year... More broadly, we continue to believe that this cautious outlook is already more than reflected in the valuation... and that a period of share price weakness... has been heavily influenced by concern over short-term advertising spend rather than a more fundamental assessment of the groups medium-term attractions. The latter include: (a) an unrivalled ability to deliver a mass market commercial audience (a characteristic still highly prized by advertisers) via a trusted well-understood medium; (b) the scale and commercial value of its content portfolio; (c) the prospect of an attractive income progression (SCF three year agg. underlying DPS growth 18%) and strong cash generation (providing firepower for acquisitions, dividend growth further special payments (29.3p to date), and de-leveraging an already under-geared balance sheet), and; (d) its value as a strategic asset within a consolidating industry. We retain our Buy recommendation."
I.C BUY I.C. + Rating today by the time a bid comes the way price keeps falling it will not be very highBrokers rating 8 strong + 2 buy 5 neutral 2 strong sell sell has been correct 4 some timeI.C. Also + VOD BTG AV. CAR
Re: Buy @ 164.27, 151.34 I've been waiting for the bid/takeover since 2005 !!!
Re: Buy @ 164.27, 151.34 yes i bought some at 1.70 recently for the dividend, and hammered since thenso just bought some more at 1.44 to avg down and wait for a bid/takeover..