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jackdawsson 19 Feb 2018

Re: Showing signs of strength? Fair to say that for all the past indications of a possible breakout here to higher levels soon, technically we're still seeing a lot of resistance at 172+, bar brief intraday spikes. Not closed higher than 173 since mid-October. Unless something leaks out to tempt bigger investors, looks like market will remain cautious & there'll be little change in price action until full year results on 28th February.As market reaction to those can go either way, I intend to sit tight with my real shares, but I won't be adding more leveraged positions... just in case. As we know, nothing is a given in this game. But looking at things with a favourable bias, even a half-decent report ought to please markets & hopefully see SP move to higher range. If it does, I shall stick with targets of circa 180+. Preferably higher, but I shall take whatever gains the market presents on the day. - GLA.


Goldman top pick ITV (ShareCast News) - WPP shares have rallied to a six-month high amid a recent improvement in the ad market, capped off by a bullish view given by analysts at Goldman Sachs and Numis on Friday."Recent advertising trends have been better than expected across the board," says Goldman in a note to clients, though its top pick in the sector was ITV, based on an attractive price multiple of 10x 2019 earnings despite improving advertising/audience share momentum and M&A potential.Goldman expects 2017 ad figure to emerge showing a "more positive note in most TV markets", based on analysts' conversations with industry participants, read-across from recent results and comments from large advertisers.A "slightly more positive" outlook is seen for 2018, weighted towards the first half of the year, helped by easy comparatives compared to last year's slow start, and sports events.The structural outlook still varies to a great degree by market, analysts say, with viewing and pricing trends "key".On TV ad trends, Goldman said these "have decoupled more meaningfully from macro indicators over the last year, exacerbating structural concerns over the outlook for TV".Previewing WPP's final results on 1 March, broker Numis forecast profit before tax of of £2.09bn and earnings per share of 118p, with the consensus forecast for £2.195m and 120p respectively.Other global marketing communications groups have already reported and Numis characterises the tone as "cautiously optimistic", with IPG particularly upbeat, and both IPG and Omnicom guiding to organic revenue growth of 2-3% for 2018."After a challenging 2017, we would not be surprised if WPP guided very cautiously at its finals and then raised guidance as it progressed through the year. The group gave a robust defence of its business model at the Q3 results, when it indicated that consultancies and Facebook/Google were not structurally challenging its business, but that 2017 was disappointing due to the major CPG clients reducing spend."

jackdawsson 16 Feb 2018

Re: Long @ 166.87 - closed 171.08 Closed last of my ITV SB longs for 4+ pts, reasons as before. No reflection on stock's potential or its fundamentals. Also need to be out a good part of today. Now sitting tight with 2 tranches of real shares at 165+ & 174+. Will review at target of circa 180+ as intended. - GLA.

jackdawsson 15 Feb 2018

Re: Long add 163.22 - closed 167.08 Booked more gains on one leveraged long just as an insurance in view of recent falls below 160 again. Also, everything back to recovery mode, but as we know, things can change fast once more. The rest of the reasoning as before.But so far, a VG trading stock. Still holding long @ 166.87 + real share buys at 165+ & 174+. - GLA.

sound money 14 Feb 2018

Re: Showing signs of strength? So is WPP on the back of a large Japanese media company reporting increased revenue.M


Showing signs of strength? Up 3.6% todayatb

Hydrogen Economy 12 Feb 2018

ULVR threat to pull Facebook/Google Ads Probably an empty threat given the degree of targeting social media advertising gives but it would presumably leave a lot more budget for ITV.H2[link] is threatening to pull its advertising from digital platforms that it says have become a "swamp" of fake news, racism, sexism and extremism.The forceful warning to digital platforms such as Google (GOOGL) and Facebook (FB) will be delivered at an advertising conference in California later on Monday."We cannot continue to prop up a digital supply chain ... which at times is little better than a swamp in terms of its transparency," Unilever marketing boss Keith Weed will say, according to a copy of his speech obtained by CNN.Unilever (UL), which owns brands including Dove, Lipton, and Ben & Jerry's, is one of the world's top advertisers. It has an annual marketing budget of roughly €8 billion ($9.8 billion), and 25% of its ads are digital.Weed will say that a proliferation of objectionable content on social media -- and a lack of protections for children -- is eroding social trust, harming users and undermining democracies."This is not something that can brushed aside or ignored," he will say in the speech.Unilever would no longer advertise on platforms that create divisions in society or fail to protect young people.Related: Facebook to show less content from brandsFacebook and Google have dominated the online ad market for years, thanks to their massive reach and vast amounts of data. The companies are estimated to have gobbled up more than 60% of digital ad spending in 2017.It's a situation that advertisers are not entirely happy with.Google has already come under fire from companies that discovered their ads were being shown alongside objectionable videos on its YouTube video platform.Related: The $12 trillion prize for doing business betterFacebook, meanwhile, has faced a groundswell of criticism for enabling fake news, filter bubbles, foreign election meddling and social media addiction.The company, which sources 85% of its revenue from corporate posts and videos, announced in January that it would prioritize posts from friends and family over news stories and content from businesses.Related: The new Facebook News Feed is rattling Wall StreetFacebook also revealed that users are spending less time on its network after it chose to show fewer viral videos.Google and Facebook did not respond to requests for comment."2018 is either the year of techlash, where the world turns on the tech giants -- and we have seen some of this already -- or the year of trust," Weed will say. "The year where we collectively rebuild trust back in our systems and our society."

Nige co 12 Feb 2018

Fool say's Buy ITV ITVAt the end of December, ITV (LSE: ITV) was the 13th largest holding in Woodford’s Income Focus fund, with a weighting of 2.2%. The portfolio manager bought ITV back in September, stating at the time that the broadcaster is a “highly-cash generative business with a good track record of returning excess cash to shareholders through special dividends.” Woodford went on to explain that the stock’s valuation looked attractive, and that the risks surrounding the industry were priced into the share price.I agree with Woodford’s stance on ITV, and believe that the risk/return profile of the stock looks attractive right now. For a start, the valuation is low. With analysts expecting earnings of 15.7p per share for FY2017, the P/E ratio is just 10.3. That’s 45% lower than the FTSE 100 average trailing P/E of 18.8.Furthermore, with the shares having fallen over 20% in the last year, the dividend yield looks very tempting. Analysts expect a payout of 7.8p per share for FY2017, a yield of 4.8% at the current share price.ITV is a much more diversified business than it used to be, and now generates 50% of its revenues from sources other than spot advertising. An update in November confirmed that its Studios and its Online, Pay and Interactive divisions were performing well. As a result, I believe the stock is a ‘buy’ right now.[link]

jackdawsson 07 Feb 2018

Re: Long add 160.21 - closed 167.97 Booked a quick 7.5+ pts on one long. Just because it's leveraged. Still long @ 166.87 & also 2 tranches of real shares left here. - GLA.

Uncle Doug 06 Feb 2018

Rookie Buy In Just bought in for the ride @161p. Fingers crossed.

jackdawsson 06 Feb 2018

Re: Long @ 166.87 add 160.21 Dear Lord. A 2nd SB long for reasons as before + buying more on the dip after sheer collapse across the FTSE & globally. - GLA.

Hydrogen Economy 05 Feb 2018

Re: Liberty might well have cash to spend Bill,If they are looking for a home for a big chunk of new cash - strikes me there is one obvious one.... That was my first thought on reading the VOD news. E14Bn was the speculative price for the Liberty Global European assets, would comfortably cover ITV's Mkt cap of 7Bn GBP.Current weak USD presumably makes sale of European assets attractive to US Cos, maybe Liberty will wait for the predicted recovery in USD once the Fed gets going before spending again this side of the pond. On the other hand maybe Liberty have plans to use the cash in a new reduced tax regime in USA. H2

Bill1703 05 Feb 2018

Liberty might well have cash to spend See discussion on VOD board - talks ongoing for potential major asset purchase from Liberty Global. Numbers discussed (not from official sources) anything from Eur14bn to 30bn-plus...If they are looking for a home for a big chunk of new cash - strikes me there is one obvious one.... Not having any effect on the ITV SP, as yet, but.... you heard it hear first! Don't be short....

jackdawsson 05 Feb 2018

Long @ 166.87 Reasons as before & target again lower on this than for my real shares. - GLA.

jackdawsson 01 Feb 2018

Re: Long @ 167.77 - closed 171.33 Reasons basic: seems complacent not to book more leveraged gains in falling markets. As we appreciate, more than one way of making profits in this game.Still hold the bulk of my ITV buys in 2 tranches of real shares for higher targets. But would re-enter a SB long on any dips. - GLA.