IQE Live Discussion

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eagle51 15 Oct 2018

IQE price collapse? I’m surprised the share price hasn’t increased by more. This looks a first-rate appointment - someone at a very high level from outside the circle. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’d been brought in with more than just an eye on a possible sale of the company to coincide with the doctor’s retirement. Not sure how long Pullen has been with ARM but he’s experienced and has clearly done well, judging by his previous appointments. Bet IQE wish they hadn’t appointed KPMG (where do we sign, Mr Carillon?) as if to attribute blame for the accounting shenanigans the year before to PwC - it’s the company’s responsibility to get the accounts right and what they did imo was just interpret things differently (it’s called ‘accounting policies’ and gives great ‘flexibility’) to make the latest year look better. The old tricks are the best. Hopefully IQE will put all that kind of nonsense behind them and report fairly from now on. The shares are still trading on a p/e of close to 50, which is too high imo. Until sustainable earnings at a higher level can be demonstrated there’s limited scope for the shares fairly to trade much higher in the near term. That doesn’t mean they won’t, because hysteria combined with lack of knowledge and understanding of those desperate to buy cancause strange things to happen to share prices. Wonder how all those clever people are feeling who bought into Dr N’s bullcaca shortly after he’d dumped a whole pile at about a third less than he persuaded them to pay ? GL all imho/ dyor

jackdawsson 15 Oct 2018

IQE price collapse? Maybe of interest, IQE finally appoint a new CFO. SP up to 85+ as I write. Over 10p higher than when I started this thread merely 4 days ago. - GLA. [link]

jackdawsson 11 Oct 2018

IQE price collapse? Hi @Lastemporer Indeed, as much as the loss of the highly regarded Phillip J Rasmussen in early April may have affected moral at IQE, I’m surprised there’s still no announcement on a new CFO. That aside, though IQE’s last report saw interim profits down, that was put down to one-off factors. But forecasts remained positive for further growth. All in all IQE seems well oversold, but what do I know? - Regards.

Lastemporer 11 Oct 2018

IQE price collapse? It would be a start if they named a new CFO, previous one died in an accident back in April.

jackdawsson 11 Oct 2018

IQE price collapse? Hi all, As poor as the design of this discussion forum is with no improvement in sight, considering the ongoing price collapse here, I’m surprised there’s been no comment since 27 days ago. IQE making year lows every few days, with no obvious support level in sight. Long-term chart also looks fairly dire. Screen Shot 2018-10-11 at 09.00.09.png972x827 55.4 KB My brief background with IQE: traded it to VG gains for months (trades posted live on another forum). But more recently find myself sitting with long positions well in the red: at 90.60, 96.90, 100.20 & 104.80. SP was seeing levels of 101+ & higher as recently as 31 August. It’s the only AIM stock I hold. I’ve no plans to bail at these levels as one anticipates support being found soon. But that’s been the case for a few weeks. I also recognise that many AIM stocks can be, frankly, a bit of a dodgy racket. Extreme SP volatility is often seen on little fresh news & relatively small volume, with often zero input from the board to try & steady the ship. Disclosed short positions on IQE still high, but recently falling to 9.88% as I write, so that at least seems one small positive. [link] Bar very poor technicals, I’ve little idea why the continuing drops. Last report seemed a mixed bag, but far from dire. I shall hold on for now. But a return to circa 105+, be it months away or longer, will see my final exit. GLA, in case anyone is still about.

CaMaHa7 27 Sep 2018

Dave sweeney

shabby_2_sox 14 Sep 2018

Why is IQE up to 110+? I too think you are on to something Eagle51. Whilst still comfortably in profit there have been two full year and two half year results to digest since I invested all failing to live up to expectations on revenue, profit and cash. Picking up on a post in ADVFN speculating on the delay in appointing a CFO until next year possibly to avoid he/she insisting on embarrassing year end adjustments. It is all jam tomorrow and there is now doubt in my mind if even impressive revenue growth will translate into real cash backed profits in the foreseeable future. But as there appears to be a product that is in demand and will likely increase in demand as we become ever more reliant on IT/AI products I will keep holding. Perhaps this is all a plan to establish South Wale’s credentials as a tech hub for jobs and inward investment and hang the financials that investors are after.

MONKEYSO 13 Sep 2018

Why is IQE up to 110+? I tend to agree with you Eagle. It’s been all jam tomorrow here for the last couple of years. I’ve made good profits,but have sold down my holding substantially above 100p. It’s interesting that the more optimistic posters have disappeared since the price slide. I can’t see anything to hold the price up until we see the only thing that doesn’t lie-CASH!

eagle51 13 Sep 2018

Why is IQE up to 110+? Odd that no-one(eg sweeny, monty, LPC, obo, F35 - there are others) is posting on here explaining why the shares are trading at about 80p and still falling. Could it be because the boys at Alphaville (the informal side of FT for the uninitiated) seem to have got it spot on? Difficult to know where the floor is here as I don’t have IQE down as any sort of investment in the true sense of the word because it doesn’t yield any returns and the price is only driven by hype about the future (or in this case by nervousness the music’s about to stop - or perhaps fear of the news that another ex auditor has been appointed CFO, which would be really funny). Nelson will possibly be gone with his feet up in one of his foreign villas by the time the realisation dawns that people have been had. I’m not saying the situation is irrecoverable but it looks as if it will take a while before investors (there only seems to be one big one - T Rowe Associates - and they’re among the biggest lenders of the stock - not sure what this says). Nelson can easily afford a few of the big boys’ toys (yachts etc) out of the money he’s made on the sale of shares issued to him and a favoured few in their millions over the many years shareholders have had to take their chance on the share price because dividends still aren’t on anyone’s agenda after 20 years of trading). Being good at making wafers is one thing. Being good at making money that turns into cash and then distributed to shareholders is quite another. Dave Sweeney and people like Monty, who are imo like children when it comes to the whole subject of understanding and judging a business’s real value - ultimately it is all about sustainable cash generation - have caused irreparable damage to all those daft enough to listen to them. Dave has told everyone he was a GP - perhaps he might tell all the people he’s influenced with his nonsense what they might take to dull the pain they’re experiencing as a result of following his unqualified advice. Talk about facile. Fund managers? Tell me about them - they rave about beating the FTSE and take millions out of other people’s people’s pension pots if they manage it - or indeed if they don’t. And investment anal-ysts? Tell me about them too - usually ‘know nothing’ under 30s well-trained in receiving bonuses. Still looks a sell to me on the fundamentals. Sentiment drives the price though (down as well as up). Perhaps it’s time for another RNS telling us about yet another award or two, followed by more than just a hint of how good things will be next year? all imo/dyor

eagle51 07 Sep 2018

Why is IQE up to 110+? F35 - I see Alphaville wrote a few paragraphs about IQE and Dr Nelson recently. They weren’t too complimentary - seems they’re saying a few things I’ve been saying about the situation for quite a while now (years in fact). I link the article below but will highlight a couple of points that are made: …“IQE executives did not respond to several requests over three days to discuss the results”… …“The eternal problem for semiconductor companies is making a decent return on the capital they must sink into businesses which become rapidly commoditised. Revenues tend not to be a problem in a commodity business, as there are always buyers in the market, but the price and the profit prove beyond control. In VCSELs, Texan group Finisar recently cut the ribbon on a new factory. Pittsburgh-headquartered II-VI last year acquired a UK site to add to its capacity. IQE more than made up the drop in sales to “Apple” with new customers, but what’s striking is that profitability was down across the board in the first half of the year, at a gross, operating and net margin basis, even as it reported substantial sales growth. To some, that might suggest a supplier to commodity markets with little pricing power, but IQE had a threefold explanation. One was currency, due to a stronger pound compared with the same period last year, which suggests a significant risk factor given the uncertain path of Brexit. Another excuse was the cost of switching some machines from photonics to wafer production, which seems odd given wireless sales were only 11 per cent higher than the same period in 2017. IQE also pointed to “foundry-pre production costs of £0.9m”. The question here is why aren’t these capitalised, if they relate to future production? A possible answer might be that a company can only capitalise so much of its expenses, and IQE already undertakes substantial capital investment. Capitalised research and development expenses were £6.4m in the first half of this year, costs that would have pushed the company into losses were they taken through the income statement. Indeed, the story of IQE is of a company which doesn’t produce free cash flow on any sort of regular or bountiful basis, ie has some left over after investments in machinery, facilities, research and those capitalised costs. It raised £95m of cash from a placing in November, leaving it with net cash of £41m at last count. Substantial investment plans look likely to consume that, and anything else the business produces: another £59m to £82m of capital investment is planned over the next 18 months. In the last year the business generated net cash from its operations of just £20m”… …“The long history of IQE suggests another lesson, however… (a share price chart was included here that showed IQE currently trading at a fraction of its price 18 years ago)…Every long cycle brings a new set of investors to the story of the chip company which might, but doesn’t”… “fabless”…(not) Sooner you than me. Any price looks too high to me - how do you value an investment that never yields a return to its owners (apart from those who work in the business)? [link] all imo/dyor

eagle51 31 Aug 2018

Why is IQE up to 110+? F35 - I see your understanding hasn’t improved a lot. Which of the facts I posted about the numbers do you dispute? Are you unable to understand the financial information the Company itself has just supplied to the Market? The ones telling porkies are the likes of you, who present IQE, in their limited vision, as a one way only bet. It may well be - but it is far from certain. ‘Naive’ is a word that comes to mind. There’s no point in attacking me for presenting facts it doesn’t suit you to read. No doubt you’re angry about the share price, but this has nothing to do with me. It has halved in less than a year, mainly because its former rating could never be justified. It is very difficult to understand why it remains at its present inflated level. I guess it’s because people like you keep buying. No doubt Dr Nelson is very grateful to you for this. Remember him selling 5.8m shares at 106p about a year ago? That’s not looking too silly now do you agree? Retirement planning, see? all imho/dyor

lear 31 Aug 2018

Why is IQE up to 110+? Freedom 35/Eagle - and all others that may be interested, Re: my name change - with all the muddle when ii decided to do away with the old format, like many others, I couldn’t make things work and for the exact reasons I can’t remember it was easiest to start from scratch as a new member in effect. It wasn’t planned and I don’t like my new name (not thought out and in a hurry, pretty shell shocked at what ii had done). Why missmolly is still there only ii knows! Re: IQE, It all seemed good a couple of years ago, Sweenoids propaganda had a big effect, the SP was rising, it seemed cutting edge and I was a big fan, but as always the results were very poor, and doubts over books cooking, Directors pay etc. turned me right off. Seems nothing has changed except Sweenoid/Monty seem to have disappeared. Saying all that though, I made money. I think they probably can do well in the future. The report mentioned that they were going to produce product for Android - and seemed to indicate that that was new, if so that to my mind is when they could start making profit. I would pay a monthly fee for the old research format in ii - anyone else agree to that? That would give ii another revenue stream and probably make up a bit for the trade they lost . They might just do it…any thoughts? Good luck all with this crazy (Trumped up) market.

freedom-thirty5 31 Aug 2018

Why is IQE up to 110+? lear: in a previous life I was MissMolly. How come @missmolly still exists? I see @eagle51 is still here as well, so at least the porkie-pie supply has survived the website transition, even if little else has.

eagle51 31 Aug 2018

Why is IQE up to 110+? Shouldn’t you be Regan, Goneril or Cordelia, MissMolly? Lear was their dad Anyway , it’s good to be back in touch - you too, shabby. Still the diplomat, I see - I wish I could be as polite as you two but there isn’t time, I find. Glad to hear you’ve done well with Burford, Lear. They weren’t the first in the ring with big ticket litigation funding. Keep an eye on the press over the coming months in relation to an early entrant. I’ve been on the case for more than 3 years - you wouldn’t believe the blocking. Plain theft - and a lot is involved. A John Grisham novel wouldn’t do it justice. There are different forms of the same thing. It depends what lines are crossed. Re IQE, reversion to the line: “it’ll be really good next year” (or equivalent - you call it ‘jam tomorrow’) is interesting. Apropos nothing, imo one should always be cautious when accounts contain so much detailed info it’s impossible to get a handle on it all. Certain people rave about IQE’s market share and sheer innovation and quality of product. They’ve become experts on it all, even though they pursued non-relevant careers. Rarely of ever do they cover profitability per share in any depth, probably because they can’t. In the end it’s about maintainable EPS. IQE’s are progressively in decline. Cash flow is negative. IQE simply doesn’t seem to be able to capitalise on all that demand for its products. I call it “busy fool syndrome” - work harder and harder but make little or no additional return. That’s as I see things anyway. Maybe the situation will change, but we’ve been saying that for a while now. I just don’t think IQE’ big customers will let it make too much on its offerings. Perhaps I’m wrong - time will tell, but the risks don’t seem worth it to me. I wonder when Dr Nelson is planning to retire and who is set to take the helm? all imho/dyor

lear 30 Aug 2018

Why is IQE up to 110+? Nice to see posters here from the old ii discussion board, Eagle and Shabby, in a previous life I was MissMolly. Well, very briefly - IQE results or shall we agree on non-results, It’s same old or deja vous, uncanny really, promises of Jam tomorrow and no profits today. Mind you 5 reactors on stream…so maybe in 2020 the profits will roll in, or maybe not but there will be jam promised rest assured. Re: this ‘Research’ bit of ii, I would be prepared to pay a monthly fee to get back the old system (all of it) it was the best and I really do miss it, I don’t trade half as much now. I hate these threads, seems like just pot luck if you get one that’s current or half ways intelligent… Burford Capital still my best share, then Fundsmith and I came a cropper on FDEV and PLUS, but will wait it out…hope you all are doing well.