Ibstock Live Discussion

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Eadwig 08 May 2019

Recognia Bearish Prediction image.png759x917 71 KB

Ripley94 28 Nov 2018

Final placing IBST… XXXX was looking at this around time Bain was selling spring 2017. F… been at lows .

In the dark yet again 01 Jun 2018

Re: Results Me, new to bricks - well I had some Baggeridge 10+ years ago when it got taken out - but seriously interested at the moment. Looking at Ibstock but also Michelmersh. Ibstock seems the 'big boy', more solid of the two but MBH is the niche player, smaller and the more likely to be a takeover target (I know, not on the cards at the moment but always a treat when you're on the right side of that one).I will be doing my own reading but curious about outside thoughts.Regards,ITDYA

hoof-hearted 18 Mar 2018

Results in context Ibstock I am a big holder but seldom post.I agree with Mickey.Good future for this one.Will go ahead steadily as div increases, new manufactury onstreams and gov wish for more houses built gradually eventuates.HH

smilingmickey1 06 Mar 2018

Results I guess there are not so many ii posters who have an interest in what appears to be a very boring Company. Personally I wish there were a few more out there like Ibstock!What underlies a relatively small increase in their revenue is a strong market position in the UK brick and roof tile business. In these kind of businesses, small volume increases can generate substantial rises in profits, as capacity is filled (as is the case here.) Strong cash generation is providing debt reduction/ large dividend increases and the announcement of a supplimentary dividend policy. There is the possibility of non core asset sales (eg releasing exhausted quarries for building development) over the next couple of years. Ibstock's new brick producing capacity in Leicester currently being commssioned, seems destined to partially replace imported bricks, so should not be a problem to fill whilst maintaining current brick selling prices.A Government that is rather keen to see house building increase provides a good market outlook.Not surprised we have seem a price spike today given the very positive news.SM

smilingmickey1 27 Feb 2018

Results due! The share price is hovering around its all time high, a week or so before Ibstock releases full year numbers. The trading statement suggest there should be some profit growth and good cash generation from operations, given that the trading statement advised that net debt will be lower, despite high level of Capex. We can expect an increase in the divi.All eyes will be looking for a progress report on the major investment which is designed to increase its own brick production by 13%. Ibstock have given themselves to the end of 2018 to fully commission the facility. Surely it will not take this long!I tend to think that the current Government's wish to increase the rate of house building outweighs Brexit worries, especially as the UK negotiators are batting for a long exit period from the EU. Not too much excitement here, just hopefully a steady increase in divi and medium term share price.SM

smilingmickey1 19 Jan 2018

Trading update All seems ok at Ibstock. Small increase in revenue and volumes sold in 2017.The implication is that imports of bricks can be replaced by production from Ibstock,s new capacity as production comes on stream in 2018. So volumes and revenues may be heading higher year on year.Also comforting that debt has fallen in 2017 despite large capex. So Ibstock can run down debt more swiftly next year if there are no good capex opportunities. Divi looks secure. Steady as she goes!Sm

smilingmickey1 31 May 2017

Share trading In addition to the Rns advising an initial investment by a non executive Director there was a trade of 1.3 million shares or so notified after the end of trading today.

smilingmickey1 25 May 2017

Re: Tempus say avoid as well Hi Eadwig,Re yr post of a while agoI guess the point of my post (on which you commented) was that Ibstock can increase earnings faster than sales revenue as it has relatively fixed costs. Volume is "king" for these kind of Companies. Small increases in prices associated with modest volume growth will provide a good increase in the bottom line. Investments in reducing costs will go the the bottom line and capex to grow capacity will provide a return if the capacity can be quickly filled (as has been the case with the recent tile investment.)The latest trading statement says that volumes are doing well and there have been some price increases. So I'm expecting some good interim numbers to be announced. iii quotes a PE ratio of less than 11 based on 2016 results. Divi is well covered and I would expect might increase by 10% at the interim stage giving more than a 3% payout based on current SP.There is a lot of pent up demand for housing and political pressure to get more houses built. At some stage there will be a downturn (maybe brexit related) but I'm hoping we are currently still in the "wall of worry stage" where demand will hold up and Ibstock will be able to ride the waves for a while yet.SM

Thorndon33 26 Apr 2017

Re: Final placing I agree and increased my holding by 25%Best wishes

smilingmickey1 26 Apr 2017

Final placing The proposal to sell 50 million shares thus reducing share ownership from 25 to 12.5 % by Bain, followed by a announcement the next day that Bain has sold 100% of its holding due strong institutional demand, with the share price holding above Bain's selling price of 215p, suggest that institutional demand for Ibstock's share must be quite strong just now.I bought a few more earlier this week so am hoping we see a good rise in share price from here following the elimination of the stock overhang We are nearly back to the historic high, achieved just after the flotation.Could be a good time to buy!

Eadwig 03 Apr 2017

Re: Tempus say avoid as well Smickey, "I'm not sure that revenue growth is the key measure on its own. "It isn't, but earnings growth is by far the single biggest factor in any premium (above that of the average for the sector) the market assigns to a company share price multiple - AKA P/E ratio.P/E ratios have remained extremely low on construction companies since the financial crisis, especially the Uk housebuilders, despite returning huge profit increases year after year (in excess of 20%). Normally such companies would have P/Es up around 30 and beyond.i think BDEV hit 25 at one point, but most have remained very subdued. A lot of investors, even professionals, avoid construction and housing after being badly stung in the past (I presume). For me, you keep a close eye on things and be aware that construction does move in cycles, and the downs tend to be steep. Take profits as you go along and don't be over-greedy, and you can make a small fortune, even as a small private investor - especially in UK based companies. I built positions in many housebuilders through 2010/11 and made very large profits, although I tended to sell tranches at 100%, 200%, 300%, 400% and 500%. I still hold a few PSN at around 400% (the book value alone has been more than paid back by dividends in 6 years).I could have made more if I held all and only sold at, say, 400% and exited the sector. But, as I say, don't be over greedy, and taking such profits over just 4 years is about as easy as the stock market gets.Of course, Brexit is the fly in the ointment now, so I'm only trading for small profits at the moment. At some point there WILL be a down period of maybe 2-3 years, and that is the time to start building your next positions for the inevitable 3-4 years unbelievable growth we see time and again over the years in Uk housing and property.Good luck!

smilingmickey1 02 Apr 2017

Re: Tempus say avoid as well Just to also say that whilst perusing the annual report, I was interested to read that there is a plan in place for regular disposals. Quite what this entails I'm not sure but it could be that as quarries are exhausted they become saleable as waste disposal sites or for building houses (Michelmersh a small British brick builder has profited in this way). Also there was mention of consolidation in the US market. Whether Ibstock is a buyer or seller of assets in the USA I'm not sure, but were a healthy size bid to come in for the US operation significantly above the book value of the business . this could increase the asset value/share considerably.I see a non exec has bought an initial holding of 10,000 shares. The two guys in charge have been awarded zero value options vesting in 3 years subject to the Company meeting so called stretched performance targets. Holding for now.

smilingmickey1 16 Mar 2017

Re: Tempus say avoid as well Hello Eadwig,I come from the position of having bought these shares at about the current price not long after the original flotation. I erred by not selling as the price dropped, but am now pleasantly surprised that the share price has recovered so I'm back to breakeven and now hold shares in a solid Company paying an attractive dividend, well covered by cash generation (hopefully).In a business like brick production, I'm not sure that revenue growth is the key measure on its own. There are high fixed costs, so small increases in sales volumes/prices should generate stronger profit/EPS growth even in a relatively slow growth market. As I understand it there has been a shortage of brick production capacity in the UK (following plant closures) and in recent years this deficit has been covered by imports. I have a feeling that as a result of the weakness of sterling Ibstock's cost base will be below that of EU importers, so they are in a much stronger position than was the case a couple of years ago to defend prices and at least hold market shareMy estimate of PE was a back of the envelop calc based on the most recent results. My guess is that iii's measure will have been based on last years figures.The appetite by the market for the stock and subsequent price rise after the drop suggests that there is good institutional demand for the stock. at the current share price. So I'm holding for now with the hope of some further modest capital appreciation and a safish divi.There's probably better investments out there, but I do like to hold a Company that I feel I'm familiar with!FWIW I spend a lot more time thinking about Somero, a Company based in the USA quoted on AIM which sells equipment for production of flat concrete floors.CheersSMSM

Eadwig 15 Mar 2017

Re: Tempus say avoid as well smilingmickey1, "Well a very swift sale of the shares."They got rid of more than they were originally intending to also. I assume that means none locked up to be released after 60 days which might have impacted adversely on the share price, as well as a lot of interest from institutional investors.Still regretting not holding that bit longer which would have seen me catch the recent steep rise. One of my few infrastructure plays that would have actually played out, despite the disappointing budget. Still, spilt milk and all that.I would imagine there isn't that much more share price growth to come at a P/E of 12. I think I'm right in saying the results saw 5% growth, which is hardly stellar. Although ii is showing a P/E of 9.5, which would suggest otherwise if correct. I can't be bothered to work it out for myself at the moment.It also depends how well they execute with the additional capacity they are putting in place - and if demand remains in place. The weak pound must be helpful as it makes them more competitive against imported alternatives.Just came across this:Alliance News DetailBarclays Says Diamond Sells More Ibstock Shares Due To Investor Demand (ALLISS)[ 10 Mar 2017 08:56 ]LONDON (Alliance News) - Barclays Bank PLC on Friday said Diamond (BC) SARL has decided to increase the size of the placement of shares in FTSE 250-listed brick maker Ibstock PLC, due to strong investor demand.Accordingly, Diamond has sold 48.6 million Ibstock shares at 200 pence each through an accelerated bookbuild, raising GBP97 million.Diamond had initially planned to sell around 40.6 million Ibstock shares, as announced in a statement released on Thursday.Shares in Ibstock were trading down 2.9% at 205.70p on Friday morning.Following completion, Diamond will hold 101.6 million shares in Ibstock, representing around a quarter of Ibstock's issued share capital.Any shares not sold in the placing will be subject to a 60-day lock-up.