Rotterdam to FOIL - PART II That 75-80p post seemed ridiculously negative frankly, especially as we were at 60p already. I know there are precedents for oilies being sold off cheaply (Faroe for one as you say) but frankly anyone selling at 80p when we’re on the cusp of major derisking and success would be making a huge mistake imho. we may not get to the dizzy heights of £5 but we should certainly be well north of here - and once hook up is achieved, we should be well north of 50p even before they start the pumps running. I don’t think the 75-80p poster was a deramper (not sure who it was but a known and genuine name on here I think). however there will be people appearing to rubbish our investment and try to get people to sell cheaply. Happens in every case when someone wants to force a cheap takeover.
Rotterdam to FOIL - PART II @Happy_To_Learn "Particularly like the 130p Stifel target price. All the best. HTL " Thanks for that Post, HTL. Greetings to you and All others. Not going back too deeply into the HUR S/P dialogue, except to observe that an (estimated)£1.30/share, values HUR’s 2C & 2P resource at an average of <1.75 USD/barrel (<£1.35/barrel). Even at the ‘coup’ which DNO was able to pull off on Faroe, the former had to pay >3.00USD/barrel (>£2.32/barrel) average 2C & 2P. But then I read one Blogger to say that he/she is now frustrated enough to accept a 75p - 80p Bid. Good Grief! Even if my numbers were subject to minor adjustment, what has deteriorated so badly since? The broken hoisting rope? Surely not!! But then - on many occasions - the more faint-hearted among us d.i.y. L/T Investors tend to panic and Sell, most often, prematurely. I continue to caution against this - unless you have no other option. As I said, not too deeply into it this time because it is all conjecture, anyway. Some more informed than others, but all conjecture, nonetheless. And to exacerbate the difficulties, we are firmly in a Buyers’ Market for most! All my personal views. PDYOR. Kr,A. - LLV
Rotterdam to FOIL - PART II Hi Floss, Baring in mind that information I believe was given by AS, I tend to take anything coming from that direction with a pinch of salt. Not a big fan I am afraid. All the best. HTL
Rotterdam to FOIL - PART II Hi Floss, Yes, I have commented on a couple of occasions that we have not been the receivers of the best of fortune so far with this exercise. I have always worked on the principle in life that one does one’s best, however, “what will be will be”. Otherwise we would all be living in our own Nirvana, with perfect lives, having all that we could wish for. Unfortunately, life is not like that. You can be the most intelligent, capable and pre-emptive person in the world and still the only guarantee is, there is no guarantee. All the best. HTL
Rotterdam to FOIL - PART II Happy_To_Learn: We come away with more comfort the failure mode of the first and second attempts will not be repeated, i.e. was chance rather than evidencing systematic engineering failure.’ Engineering design includes envisaging what could go wrong and ensuring that this can be handled without failure, but where there is inadequate prior experience, some failures may not be anticipated. That is not a fault, merely a fact of life; predicting the future is never easy. I am surprised that they are setting the wave/swell limit as high as 3m when there are plenty of occasions when the seas are far lower. The 2 day window seems pretty wide, I would have though that there will be only a small part of that time where the swell height is critically important, perhaps the wide window includes a delay aFlowance.
Rotterdam to FOIL - PART II Hi Everyone, Interesting first and second post from “PC01” on the LSE board. Was asked if he was able to elaborate on his first post, hence second post reply. Many thanks to him/her. Particularly like the 130p Stifel target price. All the best. HTL 1st post. “New to posting on here - just fyi Stifel who did the convert deal have sent some research out this evening…all positive stuff expecting hook up subject to weather end of Feb…px tgt still 1.30…interestingly they also suggest Hur more than just a 1 truck pony touching as they do on the new drilling starting in April. Think perhaps we are all guilty sometimes of worrying too much about every penny move (if down!)…we have no idea if a big seller is purely hedging a convertible position? GLA” 2nd post. "No, the new MIFID rules that exist make sharing of research a tough gig - but the opening paragraph says : ‘Our unchanged thesis on HUR is that technical de-risking during the first six to nine months of production, i.e. by around ~YE19, should close the 66% discount to NAV (vs sector 27%) implied by our unchanged 130p target price. Today Stifel hosted a desk presentation from FD Alistair Stobie. The next attempt to hook up the production vessel, a precursor to first oil, should be around the end of February (weather permitting) while exploration drilling will recommence in April. No impact on valuation (Figure 1) or financial estimates.’ and 'Hookup possible from ~month end: HUR is waiting on replacement kit for a third attempt to hook up oil production vessel the FPSO Aoka Mizu to existing subsea infrastructure installed over the Lancaster oilfield (UK West of Shetland). The spare should be available from around the end of February with a hookup attempt possible thereafter depending on the weather. As a reminder, a period of ~24 hrs with swell < 3 metres is required to attempt the operation. We come away with more comfort the failure mode of the first and second attempts will not be repeated, i.e. was chance rather than evidencing systematic engineering failure.’ Hope this helps…"
Rotterdam to FOIL - PART II @millais Oil is black And coming into view… I like that… Broken hoist Rope permitting! Kr,A. - LLV
Rotterdam to FOIL - PART II Roses are red Violets are blue Oil is black And coming into view…
Rotterdam to FOIL - PART II @AllWhoShallReadHere “(Porgy and Floss)” Without Prejudice All Royalty Payments, please to Lyricist/Poet Flossoffa as abovementioned. After accounting for tax with-holding to HMRC and also copyright payments to Mr George Gershwin, he will distribute the net proceeds 35% Floss, 10% Lawven (LLV) and the remaining 55% equally among all readers and contributors to this excellent HUR site. Kr,A. - LLV v
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Rotterdam to FOIL - PART II That was a great rhyme And it wasn’t even mine, But here’s to the day When the AM sails away, To hook up, not to muck up, To get the oil flowing, And we loyal holders Will be rewarded in quick time.
Rotterdam to FOIL - PART II
Rotterdam to FOIL - PART II ash6666: Next opportunity - some time way off in the future. Summertime and the hook-up is easy Investors are smilin’ and ocean is flat The winter’s a bad time, we messed it up twice But this share’s good un jus ask Doctor Trice One of these mornin’s you gonna rise up singin’ Spead your wings and you’ll take to the sky Until that mornin’ there’s a nothin’ can harm you With Lawven and Flossy both standin’ by. (Porgy and Floss)
Rotterdam to FOIL - PART II @riverside_red "The term you are looking for is active heave compensation." (at Floss?) Thanks, Riverside. I, too, can take that. A rose by its proper name? - Kr,A. - LLV
Rotterdam to FOIL - PART II @Flossoffa/@ash6666 "it will be well worth having some flexibility in the system " (Floss) “…Agreed. Flexibility is king.” (Ash) Congrats Floss/Ash, you both have ‘eureka-ed’ - or whatever is the appropriate Greek inflectional form in/of its conjugation! Let’s hope that HUR/Bluewater/subcontractors also do, before too long!! Kr,A. - LLV