Brent Crude Up 1.50% at $65.80 a Barrel The price of oil continues it's journey north. With Lancaster profitable at $50.00 a barrel the future's looking bright for us.[link]
Re: New Corporate Presentation Hi, Carliol......I like your thinking! Its feasible, and a far less risky route to go, to share the development amongst the majors. And the more I think about it, the more likely it seems. Its that kind of thinking that brings the excitement back! Thank you.
Re: New Corporate Presentation Good Afternoon Everyone,I've been having another read through the New Corporate Presentation for Q1 2018 that was first posted by H t L last week. The more I read it the more convinced I am that we are all invested in something special. On page 5 it lists the Reserves and Resources of oil companies operating on the UKCS. This list reads like a who's who of the oil industry. BP, Shell, Chevron, Statoil, Total etc etc. Guess which oil company has the largest R & R on the UKCS? Of course it's Hurricane!! However, just look at the margin between Hurricane and it's nearest rival. Hurricane has 2.6 billion boo marked as R & R, whereas BP come second on the list with slightly over 800 million boo. Which means that we have more than a colossal three times as much oil the nearest oil company.Looking further into the Presentation on page 8 it mentions the BP Clair Ridge Development is expecting first oil in 2018 and is in partnership with Shell and Chevron in this development.Given the info in the above paragraphs it looks to me as if it's only a matter of time before a bid comes in for Hurricane from the above consortium. Although I've always thought a bid would come in from BP alone, given the sheer size of our assets and the amount of cash needed for a Full Field Development, it looks to me as if a bid will be forthcoming as a joint venture from BP, Shell and Chevron.I can't see three heavyweight oil companies such as BP, Shell and Chevron sitting idly by. I'm sure they'll want a piece of the action. Also, given Hurricane's assets I would expect the O & GA to prefer the above majors to bring to bring all of Hurricane's assets into production.One of these days the market is going to wake up and realise just how much oil is safely tucked away in the naturally fractured basement reservoirs West of Shetland.Carliol
Re: The Press Crikey HTL, what an horrendous time during a period of 18 months or so! I'm pleased you fought your way back and carried on with life.Take care from now on, eh? We all need to see this HUR journey through to conclusion in one piece. Onwards and upwardsaquarian
Re: The Press Hi aquarian,I hope you are well and everything is improving."Due to the rap over the knuckles (from my stroke) that I had 10 weeks ago, life has a different perspective now, and events like that remind us I think, that really, when all is said and done, our health and loved ones are far more precious than any amount of oil or share price."Yes, unfortunately it takes that kind of thing in life to remind you that there are far more important things than just money. Three and a half years ago, I went in to hospital for a "minor operation", and woke up the following day in intensive care with tubes and monitors sticking out all over me. After a ten day stay, I was allowed home, but that period gave me a long time to think. Two years ago, I fell downstairs at 8.00am(not drunk I promise, lol) and collapsed a lung along with breaking two ribs. I wont go into the pain I suffered in the hospital for them to rectify the problem. So that time I was lucky yet again. Both these events have had a fairly profound effect on the way I now view life.So, you are absolutely correct in what you say, however I just wish there were easier ways in life to learn the lessons.I wish you a quick and full recovery, an of course, huge success with our HUR investment.Take care.All the best.
Re: The Press Hi, HTL. I'm glad you were able to re-do the maths, and now you've got another year to see this come good. I really hope it all works out for you, because if it does, it will mean it has for the rest of us too! The HUR story really has tested us, but in reality, it has mostly been caused by other factors, as you have said, like the collapse of the oil price, and the large fundraise last year, that was a shock to most at the price it was done at. Like you have previously intimated.........maybe the last minute PFC circumstances were involved. But, technically, HUR has most definitely not let us down. And that's what we have to hope continues for us to have confidence for your plan (and ours) to play out. The sequence of events for the next 12 months are all in the technical department. Finance is sorted. And our health too of course, we need that to stay on the straight and narrow......and that of Dr. Robert Trice too! Not too many meat pies and cigars please, Dr T, or get too near any flares!Due to the rap over the knuckles (from my stroke) that I had 10 weeks ago, life has a different perspective now, and events like that remind us I think, that really, when all is said and done, our health and loved ones are far more precious than any amount of oil or share price. Although, if HUR reaches 100p a share, my health will improve somewhat, lol !!Good luck, HTL, let's hope that by the time we've had one more Spring, Summer, Autumn, and winter......we'll be well rewarded on the financial front.aquarian
Re: The Press Hi Everyone,Re my last pos. "My original investment here was at 42p per share. Having topped up four times since, I am currently sitting on a 32p average, which as we stand at this precise moment, gives me a very small profit. My original intention was a maximum period of five years, that target is reached within the next month. To date therefore, this has not worked out as planned or hoped for,(story of my life)."Apologies to all, I was obviously having a "senior moment" when I wrote the above. My original investment was march 2014, which makes my time invested here at four years come March,(it just feels like five, lol), so still got a year to go. Lets hope then that the target I set myself happens within the next twelve months, which if all goes to plan is very doable, imo.Lets hope we have a great week.All the best.
Re: The Press Carl Ill:`Lets hope next week is a week to remember for all the right reasons.I am terribly sorry Carlisle, but my iPad spell checker cannot believe that you are really called Car isle. As regards next week, you can be sure that if the SP goes up significantly, there will be top slicing, so the ideal week would be one which more nearly reflects progress towards the EPS and on a week by week basis with say 42 weeks to go to FOIL, 1.5p per week would give us 63p more plus our current 33p = roughly a quid, which is entirely possible by the end of the year.So 33p plus 1.5p = 34.5p. which will hopefully not be enough to tempt the Flopslicers
Re: The Press Hello Floss,You've raised some interesting questions that are very relevant to my investment in Hurricane. There are three questions every investor has to ask him/her self. When to buy? When to sell? And when to hold?These questions are quided by two emotive qualities that every investor has. They are fear and greed.Many inexperienced private investors buy when the price is high and sell when the price is low. Which means that they are trying to jump on board through greed and when the price drops they panic and sell through the fear of losing even more money. Whereas experienced investors invest the other way.You could say i was lucky taking a sizable profit when the share price was 60p. But a profit is a profit and as I said before - no-one ever went bust making a profit. The rise to over 60p was fairly fast. After being invested in AIM for longer than I care to remember, I've normally found that a sharp rise is followed by a fall. There are many times when I've "got it wrong" but I'm still here and making some money. But if I'd made better decisions i might have made more cash. I think it's impossible to "get it right even most the time."Regarding my investment in Hurricane. With a little luck and some more top slicing I should shortly have a free carry. However, because I've seen so many shares go pear shaped I'll continue to take some profits as the price of the share increases. I'm always fearful that something drastic might happen and the share price collapses. Although it's a contradiction of terms, I'm confident Hurricane will go from strength to strength. In other words, I'm cautious and fully aware of the risks involved.Another aspect of investing in AIM, is to only invest money you can afford to lose. I'm certain you're aware of this but I've only put this warning in my reply because there are probably inexperienced investors reading this who are not as long in the tooth as we are.I could waffle on like this from now til the cows come home so I'll sign off by saying.Let's hope next week is a week to remember for all the right reasons.Carliol
Re: The Press Wow, grown up discussion on a BB. This is the best board by far on iii.jfp
Re: The Press Hi Mike/carliol/aquarian/Floss,Firstly, many thanks to Mike for your original question to carliol, which started, imo, a very interesting and pertinent discussion that I am surprised that we long-termers have never broached before. Everything that you have all asked, and answered, I have asked of myself over and over during my investment here. May I say that I found all of this discussion to be very direct, open and not contrived in any way. This is not supposed to be in any way a suggested criticism of anyone. I think we all at times, including myself, post things that we feel we should, with not wanting to upset our fellow shareholders, or shooting ourselves in the foot, but do not necessarily feel entirely at the time of posting. Personally, I invested here with the intention,(as I have mentioned before,) of trying to undo some of the damage of being made redundant at an inopportune age and personal situation, which threw most of my retirement plans up in the air. and left the "happytolearn" family not exactly penniless, but with financial concerns for the future. My original investment here was at 42p per share. Having topped up four times since, I am currently sitting on a 32p average, which as we stand at this precise moment, gives me a very small profit. My original intention was a maximum period of five years, that target is reached within the next month. To date therefore, this has not worked out as planned or hoped for,(story of my life). However, I maintain a very strong belief in Dr Trice and Hurricane as a whole and what I hope they are going to achieve. What I did not expect when I made the investment, was a collapse in the oil price or the digitisation of the stock market. The first one was a severe blow to investment in O&G shares, which is now gradually recovering but has extended the period of a decent return by some time. The second imo, has turned the markets into a giant Ponzi scheme, where the only people that seem to be making any profit, are the traders, particularly the large ones who seem to have a enviable knack of knowing precisely when to buy and when to sell,(ahem!). I would be very interested to know the results of a survey of how many are in profit among long-term retail investors over the past three years, particularly with AIM shares.Any way, like "aquarian" I have too much invested here, both in time spent and money I cannot afford to lose, to walk away. So as a with others I spend too much time sp watching getting greyer by the day and more wound up. Like "carliol", my wife tells me to get a life. Were it not for my belief in the Dr Trice and the HUR story, and my enjoyment of talking to my mates on the board, I would probably take her advice. There again it would be like accepting that she is right and I am wrong,(not having that, lol).Lets hope for all our sakes that everything works out in all our favour. We have all been this patient so far, I am sure we will all get there with a bit of support from each other.All the best.
Re: The Press Carliol: `My current investment strategy, as it has been for many years, is to take some profit when it appears until I get a free ride. I do this by top slicing. For example, I took some profit when the share price jumped up to over 60p.'That sounds good if you can be sure that the SP will fall after 60p, but at the time, it may well have continued upwards. In retrospect, you made a very good decision, but hindsight is always 20:20. We probably all expect that the SP will reach 60p again at some point (quite possibly even prior to the EPS starting to deliver), but would you `top slice' again when it does, or hang on for better things?Speaking personally, although I haunt this board, it is only for the chat; I have no intention of selling at any point. I will be perfectly happy to wait until we are either bought out or until the growing company starts to issue dividends, and even then, why sell. We will have the UK's biggest and best oilfield, the SP will be many times what I paid and the dividend stream will be supporting my great grandchildren throughFlollege
Re: The Press One of the ways I decide if Im happy to bear the risk, is to ask myself is there another share with equal potential and prospects, but with less risk to make me more comfortable. But I always come up with the same answer......no, there isnt.I find these days that the whole market is so manipulated by high tech trading and shorting, that whichever share I look at, I can see that no matter how safe, or how big its market cap, its made just as risky as HUR, but for different reasons.Hence my sticking with HUR, but at the same time keeping on red alert in case theres something I havent covered in my risk assessment. Hope you enjoy (ed) your walk, and your tasty rhubarb when its grown up a bit.
Re: The Press Hi Aquarian, yes fear is a big driver in the stock market; fear of losing money and fear of not being in when the SP rises.It might help to list the things that might go wrong and see how likely those things might be. The mechanical things can usually be corrected. Even the sinking of the FPSO can be got round to site an extreme example but what can't be got round is the failure of the field to maintain oil flow. The rest would be costly in time or/and money depending on what went wrong but there would be no hiding from the failure.I've read much about FB and listened to RT over the last few years and I've not heard one word from FB detractors that have adequately backed their positions. RT has challenged them a few times and nobody has been able to point a finger to where FB has failed given similar geology. The main argument I've heard is that FB is unlikely in the NS because it hasn't been done before, mainly because the majors didn't think it could be done. If RT is right there will be a lot of damaged reputations out there. It could be a major reason why nobody has come forward to farm in or takeover. BP etc. are still being advised by these naysayers.We are relying on RT to be right but there have been some serious players putting serious money behind our hero which gives me comfort. Anyhow, we'll be out of our misery within 18 months IMHO. I don't know how long the BPs of this world want the oil to flow before they buy the concept but I would have thought 6 months would be adequate. So 18 months give or take and we'll lose the lot or be looking at multiples of the current SP. Many of us might take the opportunity to top slice along the way because the SP won't do from 33p to £2-3 or whatever overnight.You may feel over stretched but do you really want to reduce your holding or are you happy, well maybe not happy, to bear the risk? I'm not suggesting that you should hold on but I think its a question we should all be asking.Its a lovely day here in Kent and I'm off to walk in the countryside and relish the beginning of Spring.PS My rhubarb has started sprouting.
Re: The Press Hello Mike,i appreciate your comments and I'm the first to admit I spend far too much time watching the share price going up, down and sideways. The reason for this is that I hate losing hard earned money and I'm looking to top slice to get into profit and have a free ride.I've tried day trading but I find I'm better at losing money than making money so I find the best way to make money is to be patient and take profit top slicing when the opportunity arises.I remember the old saying re investing " no-one ever went bust making a profit."And the famous Warren Buffet quote"The Stock Market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient."There's also another quote that applies to investing in companies such as Hurricane and life in general, "Life is inherently risky. There is only one big risk you should avoid at all costs, and that is the risk of doing nothing."Carliol