Re: Level 2 Curtis,I think MOL is on the list, they know how good the asset is and they have the capital, and they need new resources. MOL is very open in their investor communication that they are looking to acquire E&P asset. I think their issue is that they invested close to $0.5bn in Akri-Bijeel which now turned into dust so it might be a struggle for their BOD to tell its shareholders that they are going to put in another $1bn into GKP/Shaikan over a few years.I don't think Genel is there anymore. They don't have the capital or expertise to develop the asset better than GKP standalone. They need to use the cash they have to the gas development going and repay their bond.I think Total is on top of the list, a) Their CEO has been very clear that they are looking to do deals to get lower on the cost curve, b) The Maersk deal also made Total a producer in KRG so they are now more active in the country, c) Total is no 1 or 2 when it comes to expertise on heavy oil reservoir similar to the Shaikan reservoir. With a STOIIP of 7-8.5bn barrels and with only an assumed recovery rate of 7-8%, the best operator of heavy oil field will have a great advantage here, d) Total was allegedly very close to acquiring DNO before the oil price collapsed so they have had their eyes on Kurdistan, e) Total seems to be very comfortable increasing exposure to the Middle East, given the deal they have done for the Al-Shaheen field in Qatar and the South Pars field in Iran in the last year.DNO is clearly on the list, and I think DNO Chairman Bijan would love to acquire Shaikan. I think DNO issue is that, Bijan is a cheap investor, he won't get involved in a bidding war. He tried to buy GKP when it was distressed and he/RAK bought their stake in DNO when the company had a lot of issues. DNO Chairman said in the past that they were willing to exchange some of the receivables KRG owed them for interest in other blocks (read Shaikan), this option is no longer open as they have done the same deal for additional Tawke interest. I think DNO will try to get GKP but if there is another buyer competing I think it will be a challenge for DNO. DNO will probably offer shares, but I guess the senior bondholder is now looking for a clean cash deal.Sinopec, the rumors earlier this year seemed to have some substance. If it wasn't for the Taq Taq issues I think Sinopec would be very interested. It must be a big hurdle to put in new billions in KRG after the Taq Taq issues. On the other side, Sinpoec has been active in KRG now for 8 years so they show know how to deal with the government. Shaikan ticks a lot of boxes for Sinpoec.Rosneft, seems to be very interested in Kurdistan. Maybe they are only after the gas to protect the Russian oligopoly on gas from the east to Europe. I don't think Rosneft would be the most compelling buyer from a GKP shareholder perspective. First, they would most likely want to get Shaikan/GKP as part of a larger government deal between Russia and KRG. That would not yield the best price. Secondly, Rosneft would have some hazel to acquire a UK listed company, even thou GKP ties to the UK is very limited.Chevron, one of the technical best-equipped company when it comes to carbonate reservoir similar to Shaikan. They operate the Wafra field (Kuwait/Saudi Arabi) which shares a lot of similar reservoir characteristic with Shaikan. They have been very successful lifting the recovery factor from this field. The US oil majors have been very passive on the acquisition front in the current oil price downturn, with the exception from bolt-on acquisitions in the US shale space. OMV, maybe, but they have probably burnt to much cash already in Kurdistan. I think it will remain quiet until GKP has sorted out the 2nd amendement for the PSA. But when that is sorted and as soon as one player makes a move for GKP I think several other oil company will resuracfe with significant interest.
Kurdish Referendum Barzani will call the referendum off in return for concessions from Iraq regards to oil. It could be agreed in the next few days.This is a much better alternative for the whole region than independence and will be a major boost for the IOCs
Re: Update CP, please forgive my scepticism, but there have been many many many, who have said the same over the years. Alot of bold statements over the past few days from folks, and if what you say is the case, how confident are you of M&A, and do you think this will be good for the private investor. Your situation is different from others, which as you know, may or may not again benefit us.We all get the rules, and how people alike can be so cryptic, but this is exactly like reading an RNS/s over the years.I hope it all works out for all parties at the end.Gla.
Late Reported Trades 20,000 @ 120.5438p . . . NT . . . 16:37:1661,437 @ 120.2543p . . . NT . . . 16:38:143,954 @ 122.00p . . . . . . NT . . . 16:42:593,954 @ 119.00p . . . . . . NT . . . 16:46:11323 @ 129.3615p . . . . . .OT . . . 174:10NT Negotiated trade with immediate publication
Daily Volumes Close........124.50Open........122.25High.........122.25 . . . 0806 . . UTLow..........116.40 . . . 08:20:51 . . 0T . . . 116.50 . . . 08:210 . . ATMD Auc....140 @ 118.5pAuction....Bid..............Ask118.5......zero.............zero . . . Spread, 120-------121118.5......zero.............zero . . . 5,289 @ 120------INV 2,000 @ 121120.........zero.............6,000118.5......161..............7,511120.........6,838...........7,591118.5......6,838..........12,628120.........6,838..........12,628120.75LSE, 688,799ATs, 286,284UT, 15,810CP, 120.75p
GKP with stellar potential. Gulf Keystone Petroleum Limited: a forgotten growth stock with stellar potentialG A Chester | Tuesday, 19th September, 2017 | More on: GKPImage: Public domainShares of Gulf Keystone Petroleum (LSE: GKP) are trading a tad lower at around 120p after the independent operator and producer in the Kurdistan region of Iraq released its half-year results this morning.At one time the company was considered to have stellar potential. But overloaded with debt under previous management, it only survived the 2014-16 collapse of the oil price by shareholders suffering a painful debt-for-equity restructuring. Now languishing as a forgotten growth stock, I see the risk/reward balance as highly appealing for new investors today.Transformed balance sheetFirst and foremost is the transformation of Gulf Keystones balance sheet. A year ago before the debt-for-equity swap the companys market cap was a mere £44m. But net debt was a whopping $500m (£373m) making the enterprise value (EV) £417m.Today, the market cap is £275m. But with the company reporting net debt of just $2m (£1.5m), the EV is less than £277m. So, we now have a company with an infinitely stronger balance sheet valued £140m cheaper than the former basket case.Improved prospectsGulf Keystones prospects have also improved in a number of other ways. The defeat of Daesh in nearby Mosul is one positive and the improving oil price, although still volatile, is another.The company achieved average production of 36,664 barrels per day (bopd) during H1 and management reiterated full-year guidance of between 32,000 and 38,000 bopd. H1 gross operating costs per barrel were down to $3 from $4 and the company was cash flow positive through the period. Its Shaikan field remains a stable and predictable asset, set to produce for many decades to come.With its strong balance sheet and positive cash flow, Gulf Keystone is now in a great position not only to make further investment to maintain plateau production at the nameplate capacity of 40,000 bopd, but also to increase production to 55,000 bopd and, in due course, higher still.Stumbling blockThe stumbling block at the moment is that while the Kurdistan Ministry of Natural Resources (MNR) is making regular payments to Gulf Keystone, these fall short of the contracted sums. The company estimates its owed a net $33m with regards to unpaid export sales (up from $25m at 31 December) and $76m net for past costs (up from $71m).Management is reluctant to invest to increase production in these circumstances but continues what has been a protracted dialogue with the MNR with the objective of achieving contractual and commercial clarity. Encouragingly though, the board said today that it notes the recent positive developments regarding the commercial terms agreed between the MNR and other international producers and draws comfort from this positive momentum.Favourable risk/reward ratioThe ongoing geo-political uncertainty in the region one of the things impacting on negotiations with the MNR makes Gulf Keystone a higher-risk proposition and not a stock for risk-averse investors. However, theres nothing new in this regard. What is new is that the company is now far stronger and the stock far cheaper, making the risk/reward ratio considerably more favourable than in the past. As such, I rate the shares a buy at their current level.Could Gulf Keystone help you make a million?Unloved stocks like Gulf Keystone undoubtedly have potential to deliver stunning returns even on a relatively small investment. In fact, it may surprise you to know that the experts at the Motley Fool have figured out that a seven-figure-sum stock portfolio is within the reach of many ordinary investors
Re: Update Over the last year I've been leaning towards the Russians/Chinese snapping up Shaikan.After the US and allied Arab oil producers forced the destruction of the POO, with the aim to hurt the Russians, the Russians have been resilient and have continued to increase production with the aim of keeping the POO low and instead hurting the US economy. Russia has been significantly increasing their position in Kurdistan of late.[link] likes of DNO could've taken Shaikan a long time ago IMO. China / Russia to soon FINALLY take GKP out?
Update Been chatting to friendly analyst His view:2nd Ammendment negotiations now settled in principle, the delay down to getting sign off from MNR. Nothing sinister, just question of getting top man to focus on GKP when other bigger deals.Thinks very much in play and DNO top of his list. Expects M&A by Xmas but hinges on finalising 2nd Ammendment.Surprised by payment arrears but doesn't think MNR playing 'hardball'.
Re: Get rid of the debt I took you off ignore for 5 minutes to report you again you screaming lunatic!get some help!people are fed up with your insane ramblingsapologies to the rest of the board for this stalker has latched on to me for whatever madman reason and despite my reporting him many times, iii will not do anything about him.
Get rid of Zahawi He has delivered nothing positive for GKP and he has no intention to do so.His bosses are the members of KRG and he works only for their benefit.He is harming the progress of the company whilst being paid £20k a month for doing so.KRG think they can have their cake and eat it ,declare independence and do whatever they like with the oil and the IOCs .The Iraqi government is digging in from the south and the Turks are now digging in from the North and they will stop them.Those who have taken the KRG to court have won and those who have threatened legal action have won .GKP is neglecting its duty to its investors.There is only one thing the KRG and the Kurds understand ,that is force and legal action.Zahawi works only for the interest of KRG .GKP cannot get rid of him unless court action is taken .Take the KRG to court and force Zahawi out !
Re: Get rid of the debt Collapse is on the cards to sub 1p again.How many times will people allow themselves to fall for the BOD spiel and moreso how many times will they put their trust in the KRG.Its a strong sell despite what the king of trading... "Mr £2500" proclaims.Trades drying up, fall gaining traction..KRG, BOD filling their pockets...Oh Dear.
Re: Tomorrow's Interim's News -.Mikey "as soon as the commercial framework is agreed with the MNR"Which IMO means that as soon as the 2nd Amendment is agreed, signed and announced then GKP can & will begin Investing in Shaikan. As far as a schedule for investing in Shaikan is concerned, that has been submitted and agreed with the MNR in the Field Development Plan which has been on hold pending the 2nd Amendment and Regular Payments.
Re: Half Year Results Mikey, it was my opinion that they were the reasons for the initial drop but as time goes on people look at other points and find positives. So, for those people who think that markets are driven by supply and demand, the demand increased as the price dropped, people who saw value wanted to buy.The beliefs and emotions that drive markets are in a state of continual flux and it would be wrong to assume that the original reasons were still in play or even valid at the time.I believe in supply and demand, you seem to imply that the drop was manufactured to force people to sell so that others can buy on the cheap. In my world, no one is forced to sell, they choose to; based on their perception of value at the time. Others who think differently decide to buy, that is how I see markets operating.The chances of either of us pursuading the other to think differently are so minimal, it is probably best that neither of us waste time trying to.
Get rid of the debt or diversify out of KurdistanThe continually increasing managment salary bill will drain the coffers unless it is put to a productive use and ploughing it straight back into the current operational mess will have too long an return on investment.
Re: Level 2 EBAgreed, the hedge funds have made a killing and won't be long term holders. Also agreed re Ferrier, I think he has acted in shareholders best interests but investors on this Board are understandably more focussed on their losses rather than the impossible position that he was in. GKP was totally and utterly bust and equity worthless.Who are the potential buyers? MOL? Genel? Russian money?Re cash flow, I thought interesting that GKP repeated the discount to Brent and trucking figures?