CLLN all over again I don’t think LH net asset value + net work in progress is worth £9 per share but I take your point that I am adopting an extremely negative view.
CLLN all over again At current highly depressed stock market ratings of quoted house builders LH solus (or + construction @ nil profit) is worth £9 - intrinsic value is north of £16. So the question is how long the tail of construction gremlins? Even so these would be one off & the co nevertheless remains highly cash generative. Yes there might (or might not, given the aforesaid) be another rights, in which case this would be highly dilutive as the mgmt wd have nil credibility. The judgement & trigger will be next month’s IMS.
CLLN all over again So yes the housebuilder Linden Homes in isolation is worth my midprice guess of 590p, but only if that was detached from the construction business. Not making a penny ( or a loss ) from the bad part of the group is a rosy assumption, as an incoming exec running fresh eyes over the books you don’t commission a strategic review without a suspicion that there is more as yet undisclosed bad news to discover. Same as CLLN, the culture has been to hide the true extent of current and potential damage. And an exit from potential loss making contracts will also cost the group. How do you detach the housebuilder without paying the price? By the way I am guessing they are still fudging the true debt position, same as CLLN. What reaction do you think GFRD will get if they have to make another funding call? My instinct is this will end in a crash because the goodwill needed to rescue GFRD intact ought to have evaporated. 4xxp on the cards. What would you pay, if you were one of the big builders with cash to spare, for a) Linden Homes in isolation vs b) GFRD warts and all?
CLLN all over again Not quite. There’s still a good core business here in house building. The issue is how many legacy gremlins in construction - albeit these are one-offs. Assuming construction never makes another penny ever again (unlikely) then at £5-90 this looks v attractive for a low tier housebuilder. Of course the construction track record begs a lot of questions on board bonuses, as all the issues to date are several years in the making. PS I too have a chunk of CRN.
CLLN all over again Ahem … (but not really enjoying the moment because one the deserting rats, Truscott, has moved to CRST where I hold a material position)
NEW ARTICLE: Stockwatch: 20% potential upside and 7% yield "Are shares in housebuilder and construction group LSE:GFRD:Galliford TryÂ now in a recovery trend after a near three-year fall from over 1,800p?Galliford Try has been afflicted by various exceptional costs from construction projects like cost/time ..."[link]
Re: why no trading statement today as pu... Theres obviously some positive momentum in the SP, so presumably there has been some announcement or some whispers regarding strong performance trends.
Re: why no trading statement today as publis... Their website gives the update as being on Tuesday 22 May.
why no trading statement today as published... Does anyone Know please....
Re: Short stories I agree. This has been oversold and now the RI has been conducted we should start to see a gradual improvement in sentiment towards what is a very good quality business . Its quite possible we will see an upward re-rating from brokers if Management report a positive on target quarter with no more contract own goals !
Short stories No less than four separate parties report that they reduced their short positions on16th.April.This suggests that they availed of the excess Rights -issue stock coming to the market on that date - to close some of their short positions.Perhaps they were hoping for a much smaller take-up of the rights issue.The end result is that disclosed short positions reduced (overall )from 5.28% to 3.72%This augurs well for future sp direction.IMHO.
Re: Rights Issue/sale by directors??? He'd have been better off with his money in the Post Office in any case - 1% interest over the last year rather than a 40% drop in Galliford Try's share price!
Re: Rights Issue/sale by directors??? IB Just READ the RNSJust because stockmarketwire states the opposite of the facts, and for some unknown reason repeats it three times, does not make it correct.The RNS SAYS (and I quote) Peter TruscottReason for the notificationPosition/status Chief Executive/PDMRGalliford Try plcDescription of the financial instrument, type of instrumentOrdinary shares of 50p eachNature of the transactionAcquisition of ordinary sharesPrice(s) £5.68Volume 20,125Total £114,310.00Anyone who bases any trading decisions on the likes of stockmarketwire needs their head examining. If you can't read the RNS of a company you are invested in, you'd be better off putting your money in the Post Office.
Re: Rights Issue/sale by directors??? IB Investor:Are you reading the RNS or the Sharewatch report on same??
Re: Rights Issue/sale by directors??? Am I missing something then - the way the RNS is presented is that they took up their entitlement under the rights issue - why wouldn't they it was hugely discounted, and immediately sold, taking the profit. I dont understand why a purchase of a rights issue would be represented as a sale?