Enquest Live Discussion

gk10 03 Dec 2018

Nice spike Hitman, Gaps nearly always get filled. It could be argued that has happened both on here and on Brent given their recent trading ranges. Brent is up again since the close so let’s see what happens tomorrow. Good luck.

hitman1 03 Dec 2018

Nice spike 1.Magnus RNS completion… excellent… but be interesting to know what the NPV of the project would be at current Brent price of $62, rather than long term economic forecast of $70… Per LSE recent posting , Bumi PR machine still saying they are looking to get to 50k bopd in 2019 on FPSO Kraken,… um? … I tend to now ignore their PR optimism… tell me what the issue is in detail and then I might understand and believe you. Brent needs to get to $70 for the SP to react really positively and get to 30p… so the next Ops update might not get us any further up the ladder at Brent $62… It might be better to wait until later in month… say next week after OPEC decision, when Brent is nearer $65. A little disappointed with SP reaction this morning compared to PMO. 2019 Target : 70k bopd at Brent $70 gross. should see us good.

gk10 02 Dec 2018

Nice spike On WTI following the weekend events. Tomorrow could be fruitful.

hitman1 01 Dec 2018

Back in The Edge Markets – 11 Sep 18 Bumi Armada springs an unpleasant surprise JUST when investor confidence is returning to the oil and gas industry, given that crude oil prices have managed to stay above US$60 per barrel so far this year, domestic oil and gas companies are sending shock waves through the market one after... Seems to me Bumi never really got to the bottom of the issues on Kraken and just found the Kraken FPSO too complex and North Sea environment too harsh. Seems like the FPSO was signed off with unresolved issues… which should be reflected in reduced annual contract leasing rates… ie accepted but not to spec. ie an amended charter was signed. So we are left with Enquest shuffling about. My initial theory of injector pressure based on my water testing in the garden seems to come back to me… what are optimal settings based on a reduced spec FPSO… which is a shame because the wells produce quite a bit more. stick at 36k/day maybe 38k, in new year if DC4 produces more for the same effort on a limited amount of something… which no one has yet disclosed. … because they don’t know why…

hitman1 01 Dec 2018

Back in “The Kraken achieved final acceptance in September 2018, upon which Bumi Armada was paid its full DCR (minus the agreed penalty for non-compliance with processed crude oil specifications) and the accounting treatment transitioned from operating lease to finance lease”. I guess the mixture had to be run a few more extra laps to meet spec… which eats up time on the clock and reduces the potential daily productivity rate. not sure they have found a solution yet. No tanker this weekend either. The Edge Markets – 27 Nov 18 Bumi Armada’s debt issues expected to be resolved amicably Bumi Armada Bhd(Nov 26, 30 sen)Maintain add with a lower target price of 70 sen: Bumi Armada Bhd’s core net profit for third quarter of financial year 2018 (3QFY18) ended Sept 30, 2018 of RM66 million was 8% higher year-on-year (y-o-y), mainly due to...

Shotry 30 Nov 2018

Back in Some bullish divergence (RSI, Stochs, MACD) forming (Oct 26th-Nov 23rd), which, depending how you look at things might suggest a move up to 26p, which co-incidentally is the first major resistance that I see on the daily chart. It’s been a heavily traded share throughout 2018 and although volume is dropping a little, it remains good. If we weren’t expecting news (usually out of hours with RNS’s) I’d say it’s trying to find a bottom. But any entry here looks like a gamble on the next RNS. I’m very tempted to increase (folo; which gambling), but will leave it alone for now.

hitman1 30 Nov 2018

Back in Bought some at 22.7p Average on Nov 18 parcel: 23.3p

hitman1 30 Nov 2018

Back in Certainly feels like the buy to let has been rented out… Get to the end of first quarter. looking forward to first cheque,… but when you open up the statement: Letting agent has deducted annual introductory fee in one hit. Padded it up with set up, inspection, small repairs and admin charges. Retained Tenant Deposit… etc And charged VAT @ 20% Net amount due to landlord is negative, but Letting agent fully supports the Landlord… and will carry forward to next quarter…Basically no money for 6 mths, Maybe net debt has increased at end of Oct 18, so best delay and disclose end of Nov 18 instead.

hitman1 30 Nov 2018

Back in Sorry about that… guess it’s next week now… If there was an RNS in the system yesterday, the SP would have risen into the close and it didn’t, so I’ll keep a watch out next week… It would make better reading anyway after another expected Kraken offload over this weekend. I’m actually looking forward to seeing the 2019 hedging so 25p target still remains for me… didn’t buy anything yesterday, but will have a look later on if Brent declines. Anything sub 23p gives a good return on seeing a positive RNS next week… I’m guessing the balance sheet net debt figure is causing a few problems… The market would certainly expect to see this and it may need to be audited or re-checked again before release. Why am I not surprised Saudi boosts production into every OPEC meeting… I guess the others are fed up of it too. I think their actions destroy trust amongst members. No real cuts yet, but overall market should tighten up in Jan 19… Pleased to see Russia might help a little, others will follow and even if the overall cuts aren’t massive… at least it caps 2019 production… that’s worth $5, and then Iran oil receipt sanctions pull it nearer to $70.

gk10 29 Nov 2018

Back in You appear fairly certain the update will be released tomorrow, they are usually on Tuesdays or Thursdays. 25p seems a little ambitious to me update or no update but it is good to see a bit of an tick on Brent since the close. The company has traditionally hedged well, I remember a few years back they released a large profit by selling their high hedges back, a master stroke that kept the wolf from the door at the time and to think the crooks who were running Afren got slated for doing the same! It’s funny how we, as investors, interpret things. $72 Brent, plus or minus $2 is what the global economy needs. Good luck tomorrow.

hitman1 29 Nov 2018

Back in You could see 100% of 2019 production hedged at $75 or more in the next ops update… Enquest were never going to discuss their hedging strategy in public, but remembering the Chairman’s facial expression when discussing Brent $80… it could be he might have steered the finance team towards hedging a very high percentage of annual 2019 production near this number. GL.

hitman1 29 Nov 2018

Back in Well done… I do remember the AGM… a couple of questions arose on the Board’s thoughts around Brent forecast. Two key points I remember. The Chairman was keen to reply the cashflow looked good at higher Brent rates… but $80 wasn’t guaranteed… I still remember him sort of saying it was unlikely to stay that way. AB thought Brent $75 was the max. Sort of thinking they might have hedged quite a bit of 2019 production at higher rates than today. Anything above $70 and they would have taken all the contracts they could sign. Will know more tomorrow I guess. I see open at 25p.

gk10 29 Nov 2018

Back in Couldn’t resist. Good luck.

hitman1 29 Nov 2018

Out again I also believe given Trump’s threats of suing OPEC… Saudi and Russia are quite content to let WTi slide sub $50 into the G20 meeting and next week… US oil producers can then put pressure on/lobby Trump… and he will give the nod to Saudi to cut , without fear of legal repercussions. Clutching at straws… but low oil prices today affect future Capex and just bring forward the mid 2020s shortage nearer.

hitman1 29 Nov 2018

Out again I believe it will be tomorrow, …but would prefer Friday Dec 7th, …post OPEC start… and relevant production numbers including Nov 18.