I'm still looking for a home! ii have made such a mess of their site. Looks like there are some familiar names here. So hello everyone
18.9p close Unbelievable. I hope it works out for you all. The 21p rights issue now looks expensive. Good luck tomorrow.
Took the hit Mopped some up… at 20.50p/20.55p today. We only need $65, Saudi need $80+… Glad Exxon and others are all cash negative on new drills… Top 7 Shale areas produce 8m bopd… so plenty of pressure to replace annual natural depletion which is very high… combined with cash negative… should slow down growth… But : CEOs of large US oil shale companies will continue to drill and find cost savings in other areas. No job losses before xmas, but Q1 a few rigs will get pulled… esp from weaker outfits. Shale rig losses should add $3 to WTI and Brent… OPEC+ action adds $5 just to Brent… Q1 2019: $50 WTI/$65 Brent. … then both only rise if US rigs fall more in Q2 2019. How Saudi gets Brent to $80 average in 2019 is still under wraps.
Took the hit Hitman, Some you win some you lose. It’s looking like the right decision for now. Good luck and don’t dismiss the shale players who have had a fantastic opportunity to hedge their production.
Back in Elena, The 21p shares are now out of the money so in theory will have no influence until they are back in the money. I still believe the majority of those who planned to rinse them have already done so and this is all about the oil price which, as you say and has been demonstrated today, is highly volatile. What would today’s share price be without the additional shares recently added and those from the open offer? That, unfortunately, is the problem for long-term holders here. I will look to take another position at some point, let’s hope the 18p isn’t seen, or worse.
Took the hit [link]
Took the hit Sorry to hear it… i should have perhaps done the same on some… but. FT reporting Shale in Texas has breakeven of $47 to $53 on new wells… ( $30 on existing ones) Exxon are at the $47 range on new Shale Permian plays… Did also read Exxon have 30 rigs on Permian plays… IMV, the fight is now between different shale operators… the more expensive at $53+ won’t be able to drill… or could do so only at a loss… that leaves us looking at the US rig count numbers in 1H 2019… they will have to fall. even if only 10%, that could be enough to affect overall growth in US production… leaving a flat production profile in Q2 2019. Unfortunately this also puts a cap on WTi price of say $50 for all US production which affects cashflow and reinvestment accross the board and other industries connected with it… Brent will tighten up by Q2 2019,… for Enquest it only has to be $65… You might even get a spike if conventional oil declines accelerate intor 2020… The gap being filled by Saudi at the right time. The American producers had there chance… investors told them to stop chasing production and they blew it… They all have a USA first policy until it affects them in the pocket… Well WTi sub $50 puts most new wells cash negative, so good luck. Try that price all of 2019. The longs won’t come to the rescue in the US. they are washed out. You could say OPEC left it too late to react… Starting in Jan to tighten up is 3 mths too late… but the news articles will change. Or was that the intention… to sit back and wait and see how many rigs the US have to pull to save themselves… 50, 100 , … we have seen it before… Alot of Americans live weekly so, it would be a quite rapid fall when it starts.
Took the hit Looking forward to a bigger gap between WTI and Brent in New Year… imv : $15.
Back in So 22,15p was not a bargain!Brent not looking good, markets got hammered again. I’ll probably take the hit in the morning, you can’t win them all.
Back in The Big Short… watched it , seems like too many hedging contracts were sold at higher levels, then Trump changed his mind… All the big brokers need to reverse out these hedges by keeping oil price lower than it should be for as as long as it takes…sell as much as they can at lower prices, and then we get reversal so the net position shows a profit again… It’s all fudged. SP. so long as Brent is $61, our half hedging at $70, and Opec + actions, cashflow looks good… Moody’s say so too. 2020: conventional oil new projects can’t match natural depletion. Brent will go up.
Back in The volume does appear to be a little higher , …think the AT trades are collecting for disposal at higher rates above 25p once Brent hits $65. 10% return.
Back in 21.25p… probably go lower now. cheapest shares are normally between xmas and New Year… when daily shares traded are much lower. Opec: 6 mths of overproduction will take a few months to unwind. but hedging and cash still coming in… $65 in Jan is now essential. Premier… would be better off bidding for all of Enquest, rather than other projects, or Chevron’s assets in N.Sea. 40p/share would probably be accepted now. We still have our share buyback scheme… but AGM confirmed they would not use it. I wonder what price would change their mind…
Back in Elena, I usually enjoy your commentary but I am a bit confused as to where you got the fact that oil has lost $1 over a week? Also the only placing was the rump placing at 28p. I said when the RI was announced that 23p would likely be seen, without the $20+ oil price drop I now don’t think it would have, I think any overhang from the 21p shares has long since been cleared and now it is more about the market capital relative to the new shares in issue, the additional asset and of course the oil price. Investing.com UK Brent Oil Futures Historical Prices - Investing.com UK Brent Oil Futures historical prices: closing price, open, high, low, change and %change of the Brent Oil Futures for the selected range of dates. Good luck tomorrow.
Back in US no longer supporting Saudi in Yemen, Saudi no longer has to keep oil prices low. Open 24p.
Back in Enquest is pinned down by the Bots and a massive overhang from the placing. Once the overhang is cleared this will sprout wings. Oil Price is down over $1 over the week, if improvement this evening continues into tomorrow we could see lots of buying sub 23p. Good luck to all holders here.