rikid
16 Jan 2018
Re: Cantor Fitzgerald bullish comment-24p ta... At least a 100% uplift from here expected over the next 24 months.
geldman
16 Jan 2018
Cantor Fitzgerald bullish comment-24p target price DekelOil (BUY) – A return to formDKL LN (8.9p, TP 24p), Market Cap: £27m(Corporate Stock)Our view: A stronger Q4 shows DekelOil back on track in our view following earlier one-off mechanical issues. The ability to secure premium prices is also apparent. The company is now set to complete the planned capacity increase at the Ayenouan mill ahead of the peak harvesting season starting in February. The production numbers and underlying return to form give us confidence that this will drive growth at least in line with our forecasts and we reiterate our BUY recommendation and target price of 24p.· Q4 rebound in production – DekelOil has released its full year production update showing a healthy rebound in Q4 CPO production and sales delivering the company’s highest Q4 CPO , reversing the weaker data seen in Q3 and delivering overall production broadly in line with 2016 at 38,736 tonnes. Sales of CPO were 38,378 t, slightly ahead of our forecast 38,085t. Pricing was also stronger with the company averaging €680/t in the full year ahead of our €665/t forecast and we estimate that this represents a premium to the Rotterdam CPO price of 7%. Palm kernel and palm cake production and sales were slightly lower than last year but again prices were stronger than expected with palm kernel oil showing particular gains.· Return to form ahead of capacity increase – The results reflect a return to normal operations following one off mechanical issues earlier in the year. The CPO extraction rate has been a little lower than in previous years at 22.6% compared to 22.9% in 2016. While this is good for the Cote d’Ivoire, a lower oil content is thought to be due to the processing of slightly younger fruit following heavy planting over the last 5-7 years. The extraction rate should be expected to rise again with plant maturity. The company is now set to increase capacity at the Ayenouan mill to 75 tonnes per hour from 60 and the new capacity will be in place ahead of the peak harvesting season starting in February.· Valuation reflects cashflows – We value DekelOil on a DCF basis with a cost of equity of 15% and cost of debt of 10%. This gives us a target price of 24p. The principal risks to our valuation are volatility in the CPO price and production volumes.
gretel
16 Jan 2018
RNS: "record Q4 performance" 
)) Excellent update today. Back to 12p for starters?I particularly like the confidence shown going forward for 2018 - and that the 25% increase in capacity will be in place for the peak harvest season.Onwards and upwards from here:[link] Executive Director Lincoln Moore said, "Thanks to a record Q4 performance, our 2017 CPO production, at 38,736 tonnes, closely matches last year's total, a highly creditable outcome particularly when the unplanned stoppages at the Mill during May and June are taken into account. The combination of stable production and higher CPO pricing will translate into record full year revenues and profits. "Prior to 2017, CPO production at Ayenouan had grown for three consecutive years. We expect 2018 will see a resumption in annual CPO production growth. Our confidence is based not only on DekelOil's growing standing among local smallholders as an established and reliable buyer of fruit, but also the imminent completion of the 25% increase in the Mill's capacity to 75 tonnes per hour from 60 tonnes per hour. Importantly, this will be in place in time for the commencement of the peak harvest season, which typically runs from February until June in Côte d'Ivoire."
gretel
22 Nov 2017
Q&A with CEO This video interview from last Friday shows lots of confidence etc going forward:[link] obviously been a loss of confidence due to earlier production issues followed by the revenue allocation error. But these are short-term, not fundamental issues. If DKL can produce a reasonable Q4'17 with no further issues, followed by a half-decent H1 peak production period, the share price could imo be anywhere from 50% to 200% up from here in a year's time.
rikid
13 Nov 2017
Offloading! Someone offloading 2x 353250 shares so far today. No wonder price is dropping.
rikid
13 Nov 2017
Re: Ouch I don't know the answer but I think it is the loss of confidence following the two issues that you mention. I think that we will be kicking ourselves early next year if we don't top up at these prices!
kolwezimundele
13 Nov 2017
Ouch This share is turning into a dog's dinner. It can't all be due to the Q3 accounting error surely (and poor Q3, even before the error)? Perhaps someone can explain its continual fall?
gretel
30 Oct 2017
CPO price rising nicely Good to see the CPO price has climbed sharply up to $755 (as of last Thursday).
nev1jol
27 Oct 2017
CPO Just thought anyone in this share would want to keep an eye on this link[link]
kolwezimundele
27 Oct 2017
Re: Share price over-reaction Seems to me that this is a well run company with a good management team. However, as with almost all commodity-based companies, it has little control over price and sometimes production (weather factors etc.). The sell off seems over done, unless it is a comment on the base commodity itself and its market, but brokers need to be more realistic in their future share price estimates if they wish to retain credibility - the estimates have been stupidly high for too long. Nevertheless , all things equal and assuming no commodities market collapse, I see this recent drop as a good buying opportunity.
gretel
26 Oct 2017
Share price over-reaction Back from hols, and surprised as everyone was about the Q3 update and the subsequent follow-up. Management have been extremely naïve in not flagging the lower Q3 production in the interim results, and naïve/negligent in not having satisfactory revenue recognition controls in place.Nevertheless, I do believe the share price has over-reacted, as often happens in these circumstances. Management HAVE proven that they can build from scratch and in good time a highly profitable and successful operation which can be replicated elsewhere. They now have to show that they can similarly manage successfully expectations of a PLC and its shareholders.Beaufort Securities' latest update post the Q3 production update concludes as follows - hopefully management have guided them prudently. If so, then the current share price is extremely cheap:"Beaufort considers DekelOil is capable of producing as much as £2.0m free cashflow during 2017E, followed by around £5m the year after. Importantly this demonstrates management’s willingness to move its ambitious planning forward without directly exposing shareholders to a higher risk profile. Based on modestly revised 2017E and 2018E revenues estimates of €31.1m and €35.8m, delivering fully-diluted earnings 1.60p and 2.20p respectively, the shares now trade on forward multiples of just 6.5x and 4.7x respectively while offering yields of 1.7% and 1.9%. Beaufort retains its Buy recommendation on DekelOil, while repeating its price target of 23p/share."
rikid
22 Oct 2017
Re: Q3 Update I agree, however the sp is now in single figures and should be seen as an opportunity to top up. Brokers are suggesting a sp between 23 and 30p.
gubu
21 Oct 2017
Q3 Update Well that update was not exactly what we were hoping for But from what I have been reading on the boards, not a huge surprise to all to see production down in Q3 after an apparent El Nino induced spell of dry weather last year. In any case it seems to be a very seasonal business with production and profits heavily weighted towards H1. The H1 results were extremely good – almost 20% return on equity. But it looks like we will just be hanging on in H2. Last year they made a loss in H2. So I do not see how we can get anywhere near 1.77p for the full year eps as Beaufort are forecasting.One for the patient
kolwezimundele
18 Oct 2017
Re: Why oh why...? I take the "zero price movement" back - just dropped 15%......
kolwezimundele
12 Oct 2017
Re: Why oh why...? Appears to be one of those 'lots of good news but zero LT price movement' shares. I have no idea where those guys are getting their 23-30 price estimate. Maybe they are talking in a different currency.
