USA is sinking into a recession but some of the powers that be are in denial Zero Hedge Manufacturing Recessions Vs Real Recessions: How Much Lead Time Do You Expect? Manufacturing matters more than most think. A very reliable recession indicator is flashing rapidly... Lets see what the FED Powell says in an hour. My bet is another denial.
Centamin stats JB Sensible thing to do. Its a coin toss where it goes from here. Other opportunities should present themselves in October and December. Tony
Centamin stats So far I’ve lost out on a 5% gain since I cashed in my shares. That’s just over £4k. I’m not going to cry about that. I still feel safer in cash. I’m still watching and thinking but I’m not overly anxious to jump back in. JB
Centamin stats Forward PE 15.5 Price to Saes 2.7, Price to cash flow 5.6 and Price to book 1.26. Upside of around 12% if gold price holds.
Bought 10k JB I closed out all polymetal for the time being. Also took another 10k CEY off so profits at risk just over 4k. I have added on Fresnillo on the buy lowish and sell higher policy and effectively averaged down 12p. One has to look at the upside and say is it worth grabbing a few quid in front of a possible steam roller. The next frontier to research is oil companies as I watch them get beat up very badly and then decide who to pick and likely to do well on the up-turn. Tony
Bought 10k Thanks Tony, it’s good to get someone else’s take on things. I don’t see anything wrong in what you say, it just reinforces my current caution. Maybe I might lose out on some potential short term profits but there is a lot of uncertainties. If the market were to crash it tends to drag everything down. Seems a long time since we had a good old market panic. Perhaps I should put my feet up for 6 months and chill. JB
Bought 10k JB It depends on the central banks and what they do in September and whether Trump decides he can agree on something with China in future trade talks. It also depends if Trump decides to prolong his trade fight using any rate cuts as fuel to continue doing so. If Trump does behave in that way Gold and the bond rates stay on their current pathways. Gold, bond rates would reverse their current trends if trade issues get resolved as industrial investment takes off. I suspect it has to arise by the next big farming planting season in USA by late February if not Trump loses his base and the election in November 2020. A recession would materialise globally by the spring of 2020 and I doubt if the central bankers could do much with the end of globalisation at that point. What to do now is quite difficult as a severe market crash usually results in the insurance " gold" getting sold event but gold then rebounds much higher later on. I have cashed in 15k net profits but I have 9.5k in profits on the current positions. If I post that I have sold off completely you will know I expect the insurance event. I may have given away some gains by that time. The alternative is that my position holds through September and October and await gold miner quarterly results. My logic for now considering Fresnillo and holding there as the best play is due to the fact that it has been hammered so hard already and the future is like Centamin in the 80-90p range. The company also has around 5% growth from August 2020. Downside on Fresnillo could be 15%, but not 35%-40% with those other stocks having done well. The upside on Fresnillo is currently 18-20% without gold being higher than say 1450. Hope the above helps. It is useful to look at other gold miners than just Centamin which has only one major operational mine. We have not heard if they have access to the underground stoping areas they could not use in June. Regards Tony
Bought 10k Tony, Been reading a few news items these last few days. Hints of a recession in the UK, in a few European countries and indications of the USA. I’d appreciate your thoughts on what this might mean for PoG and Centamin? JB
Bought 10k Sometimes you need to be brave and cut your exposure rather than follow a SP down. I learnt that the hard way. I’m not good enough to do the short term trades that you do Tony. There is still time to buy in for the dividend but that wouldn’t be a reason for me to buy back in. It just irons out any possible short term drop. I’ve noticed in the past that though we can follow the gold price it’s not always so. We could be entering a short term disconnect. JB
Bought 10k JB I sold today’s buy to take a loss on the chin and it had a lot to do with not being caught on a position in my accounts on Centamin. A lesson in over trading after a glorious trade in the morning but it happens with me occasionally . The fundamentals as to why gold rose have not changed one iota. What has changed is the tight correlation gold miners had with gold and so the position is blind sided as to what happens next in the short term. I am 70% off in cash and only 30% on and 20% of that is intended as long term hold for divis etcetera. At present there is a lot of uncertainty in general as to how things go. Tony
Bought 10k Interesting day @tornadotony I was at the cinema so missed the afternoon excitement. It illustrates my point about the volatility of gold. I’ve only missed out now on £3k of possible profit. Could I really be calling this one right? Will I be able to buy back in lower than 133p, my last sale price JB
Bought 10k Only error of the day. What an August day for gold and gold miners.
Bought 10k Appears to have a seller somewhere. I can always unwind the position made as a day trade and probably will do so at this rate. The stock should have seen a 5p or so boost to 146p but only 1/10 of it materialised. Perhaps whatever is keeping it back may allow a few crumbs this afternoon.
10k off the table Sounds like we’re on the same page @tornadotony. I too feel like cash is the wise move at the moment. I read this morning that Warren Buffet is $122 billion in cash. Still it’s a little bit irksome to watch golds constant rise, reaching new heights almost every day. In the process pulling Centamin up with it. I do have one eye on up coming the dividend but think that the risk is too great for such a small return. One can never predict the exact moment that a dam will break, if indeed it does. I am aware that Centamin could easily reach 150-160p. I’ve seen it happen before when gold wasn’t this high. In 2008 my portfolio was worth slightly more than it is now. I don’t want to lose it all again so I may be on the sidelines for a while. I can be rather fickle at times though, if I thought that there was a possibility of making an easy grand or two I might take it. Not that I really need the money Live long and prosper JB
Bought 10k On 141.09 I suspect its going to move fairly soon like a dam giving away. Volume is building.