Re: Results, and looking forward Bernie, Numbers look good to me, at todays price , on a P/E OF 9.84,and divi of 3.3% it is very undemanding, and I very much think the prospect of marching ahead to £40 is on the cards. They need to keep the momentum both on increasing the sales and the market should support the stock, and house expected house price growth to £280K , will all help . Well done Bernie, nothing wrong with banking bit of bunce on the way, wont tell you that many years ago, I reduced my holdings at around £15 a share !!!!!, but more than delighted to have held on to a good chunk too . K.C.M.
Results, and looking forward So, results were as expected. More importantly, we have some guidance on how the current FY might turn out. Average selling price is expected to rise to 280k,from 260.3k, with volumes expected to rise by >=5%.Assuming similar margins to the FY just reported on, gives an expected rise in profits of ~13%, so I wouldn't be surprised to see the sp above £40 some time in the next six months or so.BB ... mutters something quietly about reducing too early six months a
Barratt - the UK's largest house builder by volume - Bellway (BWY), Crest Nicholson (CRST), Countryside Properties (CSP), Redrow (RDW) and Bovis should also profit, with around 40% of their private sales funded by Help to Buy deposits.
Re: HELP TO BUY, is helping boost BWY I'm still holding the remainder of what I had after reducing just below £29 Mike.I think Help to Buy as a policy is deeply flawed, but I'm more than happy to see the sp rise on the back of it !
HELP TO BUY, is helping boost BWY Well last weeks extension of the Help to Buy deposit is certainly helping BWY and other residential prop cos. Bernie you still in ?Knocking on the door of £35 !!! Great long term hold for me, in my 10 year I think. K.C.M.
Trading Update So, with revenue up by 13% and margins improving, it looks like eps for the FY will be up by 14 to 15%.Quite remarkable really, and still continuing to do better than I'd expected, with, based on the order book, double digit growth likely to continue into 2017/18.
Sunday Times Investigation Sunday Times 9th July contains article regarding repairs to sub standard new homes which may interest investors[link] may find this article sheltered behind the paywall)
Re: Trading update Aye, that was a very pleasant surprise that update.I reduced by something like 25% a few months ago Mike, but I'm still holding the rest.
NEW ARTICLE: Bellway at all-time high and set for more "Political uncertainty remains an ongoing talking point both among commentators and investors. Talk currently is that a deal between the Conservatives and the Democratic Unionist Party could slip into next week.Still, for those requiring clarity ..."[link]
Trading update Good positive trading up date this morning and the market likes it, hence the massive 4.5% increase. Bernie you still on board ?? Good long term hold for me , been in them for over 15 years.K.C.M.
Re: Interims Results about where I'd expected as well. However the shares are beginning to look fully valued and I have sold with a 60% gain in well under a year quite apart from the diviStill have faith in Bellway but main reason for selling is market as a whole has had a good run and with various uncertainties kicking around I'm feeling this summer could be a "sell in May.." yearOn that basis I'll be looking to buy on the dips towards the autumn
Interims So, eps, at just over 10% up, came in marginally above the 9% I'd pencilled in, but growth looks like settling at about that level, so I reduced my holding here by about 25% at 2875p.The PEG ratio here is still pretty undemanding, but housebuilders always seem to struggle to be recognised by the market so it's now time to start thinking about where to reinvest the proceeds from todays sale.I'm still fairly happy to hold the remainder at the moment, but I'm expecting the sp to follow growth in eps now, which, with the divi should still hopefully be comfortably be in double figures over the next two or three years ( well, Brexit may have an effect, but if it does, it's likely to effect most of the market ).
Re: Trading Update Re " but if an argument to sell some why not all?"If a company is looked fully valued, or a tad over-valued, I reduce my holding, but don't sell up completely until it looks well over-valued.Fully valued and over valued are subjective, but it's a technique which has worked for me for a long time, mainly because markets tend to overreact, both at the top and the bottom, but I find trying to call the absolute top ( or the bottom for that matter ) nigh on impossible, so doing things this way smooths out the process.
Re: Trading Update Up £1 since we last spoke on back of RedrowNearing all time highTime to take some profits but if an argument to sell some why not all?
Re: Trading Update Re "The problem is where to invest the proceeds to produce a similar return"Fair question, to which I don't have an answer, but, with eps looking like growing at high single digits, then, going forward, you either keep for the divi and hopefully a smallish capital gain, or you start to look elsewhere.With the sp rises over the last however many years I've been holding, I'm a bit overweight in Bellway now, so I'll likely be reducing at some point and worrying what to do with the proceeds later !