Re: BLV Valuation Unfortunately corporate stupidity is not a crime!
Re: BLV Valuation Ha, sticks and stones indawrong. Call me thick all you want. Actually, I think its a compliment coming from you!You're the one that has been sitting on this for the last year. Hows that gone for you old boy? PMSL.
Re: BLV Valuation Hi BisonI didn't waste my energy responding to Whinnet. He's either mentally ill, or thick.
Re: BLV Valuation Hi,we had 75% of Etinde and now have 25% - so sold 50% (we got cash upfront $165m/carried drills/ promised cash on future m/s) - total value $250mso hope if we firm up what we have/increase it - we should be able to get another $200m+Highlights of the Transaction· Bowleven will reduce its interest in the Etinde permit from 75% to 25% and receive aggregate consideration of approximately $250 million (subject to final working capital adjustment) comprising:§ $170 million cash payment at completion;§ $40 million staged deferred cash payment due at Etinde development project FID and on completion of appraisal drilling; and§ $40 million (net) carry for two appraisal wells.· LUKOIL will acquire a 37.5% interest and NewAge will acquire an additional 12.5% interest in the Etinde Permit to increase its group holding from 25% to 37.5%
Re: BLV Valuation i am out and about right now so bit hard to look but are you sure it was $165 for 25%, i know BLVN went down to 25% but was our holding 50% of etinde before the farmout?i recall we sold 50% for $250m and it was about $170/180mil immediate cash payment with rest to follow?so on that basis we would be getting $125mil for our 25%but also bear in mind that at the time of the farmout oil price was over $100 a barrel and is $72 now..............although we did have KH negotiating back then so we were always going to be short changed because of his incompetence. So with more competent negotiators in the next deal but with lower oil price we could be looking about that same return?but of course on top of that the last deal was based on "resource" numbers, when COC sell the company we should have firm "reserve" numbers so a premium should be built in to the offer price, reserves are far more valuable than "contingent resources" i think your 60p is about right (75/80p at a push), i would love to see 120p but i dont think that will happen without some extremely good results and substantial increase in oil/gas price p.s. it is mind boggling to think about it, but we would potentially have near $150mil in cash right now if KH hadnt pi55ed all that money away on Bomono, i cant believe his incompetence could cost shareholders that much!!! and why there wasnt more outrage about it is beyond me. its staggering that kevin hart wasnt investigated for complete lack of fiduciary responsibility
Re: BLV Valuation I think the issue with KH is that he talked this asset right up now it has to deliver - we have to trust Lukoil really looked hard at the data for the $165m they have already paid for 50% ....we have to hope we can double up resources and get another $165m for our 25% ....or even a bit more as it will be P90 (?) so current value:$83m cash 25% Etinde $40m free carry drilling + $15m on drill complete, P90 531bcf and 74m barrels = £100m = @32pDrilling programmeTwo appraisal well locations have been agreed with our partners targeting combined additional volumes of approximately 1 to 2 tcf of gas in place (GIIP). A 2 tcf increase in GIIP resource approximates to an addition of 0.8 bcf of dry gas and 131 mmbbl of condensate. Post Drilling:I don't see much downside - maybe 22-25p (and we get $15m + something for what they find......) ...but upside has to be 60-120p - as I don't think doubling P90 resources just gets another $165 ....I think it 'should' be a fair bit more......Notes:· Up to $40 million (net) carry for two Etinde appraisal wells, including testing;· $15 million cash to be received on completion of appraisal drilling; and· $25 million cash contingent upon and to be received at Etinde development project FID
Re: IC text "Indaknow good to see you moderating your position and acknowledging the risks."winnet - yet another imbecilic comment first off when has indaknow not acknowledged these risks?secondly, moderating from what? where has he ever stated this is nothing but upside?thirdly, these risks have ALWAYS been present even during KH's tenure, but of course now he is gone they are being brought up by you, if glorious leader won that vote we wouldnt and didnt hear a whisper out of you on this front! fraud! "I think the penny may eventually be dropping!"pity we cant say the same for you
Re: BLV Valuation cars4your pro's - yes agreed and high COS drills, but naturally always a risk of disappointment remains your con's -1) lucky we dont have KH at the helm anymore then!2) well yes - everyone wants to make money dont they?3) well they are shareholders so why not, they have near 30% stake so why wouldnt they want top dollar for that holding? most likely scenario in my mind is COC wait for results of drills, get reserves numbers and then based on those they flog the company to the highest bidder - could be anywhere between 45p-60p IMO, really good drill result, oil between $75-$80, we could be seeing around the 60p markyes 60p seems a long way from where we are now, but as drills get closer SP will move up, i reckon to around the 40p mark, good results we could see 50p and then the offer will have to be at a decent premium to the market price to get accepted - hence i dont see 60p as wildly optimisticif we get that amount i wish i could be a fly on the wall on jac's and winnets trailers when that RNS hits, that look on their faces would be priceless - eagle too but naturally that fly would be on the wall of the smoking room within his stately home, however the butler would no doubt make short work of it, so bit risky entering those premises
BLV Valuation Hmm...issue I have here is the history - so little of what KH has done has worked out ...I was there at the meeting when he tried to indicate the value of the drill ."Russians could have walked away twice" ...bought despite BLV obvious distress and the collapse of the oil price "shows how keen they were on the asset" and the excellent one metre down dip.......pro's Lukoil should know what they are doing and they have paid cash up front to get where they are nowextra cash on drills (30m was it)existing resources should be increased (significantly)consHard to believe anything KH said after Bormonoeven if resources increased - will it be developed?can we trust our largest shareholder to work for shareholders?
Re: IC text SimonWinding up the Company would require the passing of a special resolution and COC can currently block this with their 25% + stake. COC could bide their time, wait for the 12 month average SP to be sub 20p and then launch a mandatory takeover. In this scenario shareholders would be over a barrel - sell for 20p or be locked into a private limited company (I think COC would take us private in that scenario). I'm not worried about the worse case scenario as I don't believe it will happen. The COS of the next phase of drilling is high (in the context of exploration) and we're fully funded. I'm hopeful for 50p + rather than worrying about what happens on a dud drill.
Re: IC text Indaknow,Can you not imagine a scenario where after a failed drill, the sp is say 15p/share and the cash value is 25p/share, Lukoil have decided not to go ahead with development in the foreseeable future, then COC would come under pressure from the other 70% of shareholders to liquidate and payout the cash reserves.That was the 'worst case scenario' that I was considering in my mind.Not sure why you thin shareholders would get zero in that scenario?GL,Simon.
Re: IC text Indaknow good to see you moderating your position and acknowledging the risks. I think the penny may eventually be dropping! Statistically the appraisal has about a 70%COS IIRC what Kevin said. If the appraisal is a dud, then it will very much depend on Lukoil if further drills are commissioned and that will depend if Putin and Trump are at war by then. In terms of Simon's IC link - here it is. [link]
Re: IC text WarbabyI don't agree that NewAge are the movers and shakers here. They can't make a decision in relation to FID without the agreeing of other partners. The whole Etinde operation requires someone to buy the gas and oil and someone to fund the infrastructure - NewAge can't fund this project alone. Lukoil are key IMO. Sadly, Blvn are irrelevant in the grand scheme of things.
Re: IC text SimonI'm not sure that I understand what you mean by COC taking a decision to close Blvn as a going concern? COC could decide to take the company 'private' by acquiring enough shares to remove Blvn from AIM and cease to trade as a public limited company, but I imagine the company would still be trading with an aim to making profit and would be a going concern. If the drill finds dust I expect the share price will plummet in the short term (probably below 20p) and will recover if and when a decision is made by Lukoil and NewAge in relation to FID. My view is that value here will only be realised if and when FID happens.I don't personally see any 'payout to shareholders' unless COC do launch a takeover bid. There is no way (IMO) that the Company will decide to cease and distribute funds to shareholders unless etinde is dead and buried. If etinde is dead and buried you can kiss goodbye to any value being available for shareholders IMO.
Re: IC text Indaknow,Thanks for your detailed response.What do you think is the "worst case scenario", my guess is a payout to shareholders of around 20p/share, based on current cash reserves being worth around 25p/share and deducting the costs involved should COC ever take the decision to close BLVN as a going concern.GL,Simon.