Added back Having sold at £50 and £48, decided to start adding back with a first tranche at £40.49Ex divi on 22MarchGames -- Smoke that one eh!!
Re: BATS or Imperial? pics - buy a few of each, that way you'll either win/lose, win/win or lose/lose if one beats the other, they both recover, or lastly the industry is really in a permanent decline.I think from this point you might get a win/win.BATS has different products addressing different markets than IMB, yet IMB does seem very cheap right now.I also sold BATS and doubled my money and some on Reynolds before selling out, but sadly kept all of IMB and added thinking it was cheap, only for it to get well err a lot cheaper.I'm thinking of adding BATS back into the mix, it's cheaper than Philip Morris but more expensive than IMB -- in my crude knowledge of the situation.Games
BATS or Imperial? I sold out of these last year in May and July at £54.6 and £52.8 and am now thinking of dipping my toe back into big tobacco. These did me proud for the many years I held them, both in capital growth and divis, but Imperial look good too, and have a higher yield at the moment.
Re: Future Prospects What is interesting is that the closing position of BATS, on the 23rd June 2016, which was the day of the EU referendum, was £42.75 - so broadly speaking where we are today. On the back of the vote to leave, Sterling dropped markedly against the Dollar and continued to do so for the best part of 12 months; which boosted the share price in almost equal measure.However Sterling has strengthened back to almost pre EU referendum levels, and the share, as I said, is also back to where it was pre-referendum days.It might be a bit simplistic to say that when the share reached £50/mid£50s, it was purely to do with £ v $ but there is a correlation.Whenever this share drops, there is some alarm that the death of smoking is around the corner and BATS will therefore be on the decline. Which then drives over selling.This is purely in my lousy opinion, but I'm like you and see some mileage yet in BATs and continue to hold.DYOR IMH
Future Prospects Assuming the projected revenue from derivative products is correct - then this stock has a lot more mileage. Selling is overdone imho.
Re: IS THE TIDE REALLY TURNING ON TOBACCO? That's why I sold when it got above £50.Perhaps I got out too quickly but I had held BAT shares since the mid 80s, re-investing dividends and made a considerable profit.It's inevitable that over time that the sale of tobacco products will diminish and profits decline. It really is just a timing issue.Good luck whatever you decide.
IS THE TIDE REALLY TURNING ON TOBACCO? Now well off all time highs an sp still in soft mode.Times Business this week asking the question - is it the beginning of the end for tobaccoand noted that BNP Paribas is dropping tobacco from its fund management stocks.Latest comment from BAT was positive but just wonder whether the glory days are over?
Re: Results "Bill, don't forget IMB is ex-divi today" Er, top marks JT - it's the dunce's hat for me! I just about had the presence of mind not to worry when I saw GSK was down 20p-odd today, recalling that it (too) is XD, but IMB completely passed me by.There is a good reason why I have always resisted a smirk whenever I see anyone on these boards making such a mistake - aware as I have been that I've made the same mistake myself, and doubtless would do again - today being the day, it seems...Maybe I've just got too used to seeing IMB trashed for no apparent good reason, and I didn't even question it...
Re: Results Bill, don't forget IMB is ex-divi today
Re: Results Nobody will be smoked if in 30 years + lawsuits, go figure. Would you recommend a 20 year old to buy and hold for life?
Re: Results "The biggest concern is the level of debt, but we all knew about that at the time of the Reynolds take over, so I can't see that being the drag today."I am hearing the suggestion the SP mark-down is merely a (belated?) FX adjustment. A prospective 7% drag to EPS, partly offset by benefit from lower US tax, means consensus forecast has to come down by some 5%. Not sure whether this is coming directly from the company or from the "consensus forecasters"...Also a slight suggestion of organic growth being a touch light, though not by much (and against a wide range of forecasts), and they've clearly made this up elsewhere to leave underlying EPS either in line with or a bit ahead of "consensus" - whichever consensus number you choose to use!Of course, like the debt levels, we already knew all about the FX (or should have done) - yes, the US is now a very big part of BATS, and yes, the USD has been weak. Only February, of course, and it can still change significantly... either way. But maybe the market was asleep? For me, free cash flow is uninspiring, though that is not a new observation (from me) - on my figures, flat yoy at £3.2bn (though possibly slightly depressed by one-offs?). It again fails to cover the divi (0.7x), and at today's lower SP, offers a FCF yield of just over 3% - compare that to 9.3%/9.7% for IMB last 2 FYs! No contest...Of course IMB is off in sympathy today too... again! Any excuse to smack IMB, I get it. But at some point, someone will "buy" those free cash flows.... either investors, or their industry colleagues in Japan or China, who you can be sure will be watching. I am obviously biased, but while BATS no longer looks expensive and I accept you can justify some kind of valuation premium over IMB, I still say nothing like the yawning ravine implicit in current metrics. I was kind of hoping the gap would close with IMB outperforming rather than BATS slumping... but yo ucan't have everything.
Re: Results Fantastic - cheers Hardbo
Re: Results Old Eyes: yes - 4 equal dividends of 48.8p to be paid 9/5/18; 8/8/18; 15/11/18 & 12/2/19.Ex Dividend dates are: 22/3/18; 28/6/18; 4/10/18; 27/12/18Making full year dividend of 195.2p & at a current price of 4248 gives a yield of 4.6%.Covered by EPS of 284.4p; which just beat forecasts of 280.43.
Re: Results Have I read it right that the dividend will now be paid in 4 installments rather than twice a year?
Re: Results Only had a quick scan at the results when they came out at 7, but I thought everything looked good & expected a rise this morning, especially after the recent weakness. Always difficult to compare year on year when there is a big take over; but things did look OK.The biggest concern is the level of debt, but we all knew about that at the time of the Reynolds take over, so I can't see that being the drag today.On today's figures, and the price dropping to nearly 4200 the PE in under 14.8 & the (well covered) yield is over 4.6. For such a huge company with wonderful track record, world wide sales, little competition, barriers to new competition, and held is so many top funds, this looks very cheap. Companies of this size, already regarded as safe & good dividend payers do not raise dividends by 15% unless they are sure of future earnings. I'll stick my neck out & hit the blue button.