Leni Gas & Oil Streaming Discussion

3.67 as at 15:30

Bid - Ask:3.60 - 3.70
Change:-0.03 (-0.82%)
Day:3.63 - 3.72
Volume:19508946
Open:3.72
Prev Close:3.70
Year:0.63 - 4.40

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onceatrader
16:03

RE: Oncetrader oilworker1. Oil company's are valued primary on five methods only. 1 - Enterprise Value to EBITDA 2 - Enterprise Value/Daily Production 3 - Enterprise Value/Proven + Probable Reserves 4 - Price to Cash Flow 5 - Enterprise Value/Debt-Adjusted Cash Flow The formula that you have given is a generalised business format, unfortunately this is not used for a oily. But lets keep this as simplified as we can. We both agree it is all about production, to me that is not forward production, but actual production. This would then only establish value as and when we hit production milestones, and not forward projections. The market will add value to the MC as and when it is announced that well no x has now gone into production and is producing x amount. This is why I only go by what production will be from phase 1, we should leave phase 2 out of any valuation for the time being, unless second rig brings phase 2 wells into production in 2014. Simple formula is $100k per bopd in Trinidad, due to its safe background and business friendly government. This formula was spot on for pre-well program at almost $100k x 350 bopd = $35m (£20M Market cap). Each 240 bopd is worth $24m (£14m) to the MC, which is basically £14m per well to add to the Market cap today. 7 wells x £14m = £98m + £20m = £118m MC for Goudron. Spain is roughly 100 bopd = $10m (£5.8m) Market cap should be £123.8m, which is around 5.2 share price. I have given no valuation for the reserves or phase 2, 23 wells, I have also given no value to T-I, that would have a asset value around $13m. You can see from the above that there are many variables to consider, the MC at this stage is taking in core company value. Best regards John

LSE
mawtus
15:53

Top up Pension money in at 15.14, 20200 little angels to add to growing collection, here for keeps. Hope others do the same, good old DWP and hope they keep paying for next 35 years

LSE
steny
15:49

RE: expectations not being met... Agreed. Why would Institutional Investors pay 3.50, if pad 2 was already priced into the SP before production.

LSE
21alpha
15:43

cheerios try them wae some lager mate.

LSE
slimey
15:01

expectations not being met... Sorry but spat mymorning cheerios out... I for 1 thankyou for your post but have to full heartedly disagree with your post reread the recent rns's and look at the media this is going 10p in the not so distant... Me, well I'm all about glass half full with this stock makes my others seem like pubescent teenagers enjoy your research

LSE
substp
15:00

Steny Thank you I have found it through google. I don't know why but it's not showing the replies on mine... [link] Still looking for them to possibly being overwhelmed nwith production....

LSE
BeachHut
14:55

RE: rv84 I can actually remember those comments from DL, if I can remember where and when I will post .....

LSE
oilworker1
14:52

RE: SP Fully agree Steve, Like I said it was a very simplistic view and I appreciate reserves, as well as a multitude of other components affect the share price but ignoring the hype factor (expected future gains) it would be interesting to get some views of how much of the fully expected flowrates are already built into the current share price and how much can we expect... All a bit hypothetical of course. I guess a start point would be to evaluate what face value is of current assets is without the drilling program in place but inclusive of the first well 200bbls a day current flow. Not trying to dampen enthusiasm but I personally feel expectations may not be met in the very near term but wholeheartedly agree the medium/long term prognosis looks great.

LSE
substp
14:50

rv84 I can understand the other 750 barrel tanks.....

LSE
steny
14:49

RE: steny David Lenigas ‏@DavidLenigas Jul 11 @AimHighLoseLess They will empty as often as we request. so when things get moving with more and more wells they will do more than daily.

LSE
rv84
14:48

subtp i can't remember the date but i definitely read the tweet myself

LSE
substp
14:47

steny This is the only one on that date referring to LGO David Lenigas@DavidLenigas · Jul 11 LGO news out. 4th well spuds at Goudron and a new 2,000 barrel sales tank approved and being constructed. Need it for new wells coming on.

LSE
TalkingSense
14:44

New Tank I think that was also mentioned in the last media clip?

LSE
steny
14:43

RE: rv84 11th July tweet.

LSE
substp
14:43

Steny Could you please give me a date on that tweet? Ta in advance

LSE
steny
14:40

RE: rv84 They will empty as often as we request. so when things get moving with more and more wells they will do more than daily. DL tweet.

LSE
rv84
14:39

substp yes he was referring to the new tank. DL has spoken about it numerous times on twitter and said it will be ready for when pad 2 completes

LSE
substp
14:37

rv84 The new tank???? Would like to see the tweet. "Additional sales tank capacity up to 2,000 barrels has been approved and will be installed as needed. Longer-term the installation of a Lease Automatic Custody Transfer (LACT) meter is planned to handle anticipated production from the field." I think this will have to be the next step. How long would it take once the decision is made?

LSE
mallowsteve
14:33

SP I do think you need to take care about tieing in the SP too closely to production as this ignores the underlying costs, debt and tax regime. I believe Onceatrader has allowed for some of these. the other component in oil SP is usually the reserves as well as the ease of getting those reserves. No point having great production if the well dries up next year. Most valuations will therefore expect the company to not only have reserves which are economically retrievable but also a plan for gaining further reserves in the future. For some companies this can be an expensice and sometimes fruitless exercise but LGO have Gourdron with, so to speak, easily accessible reserves (and a pipeline to the refinery) and now they also possibly have a twin in Trinity. I don't know the extent to which our current SP takes the reserves into account but it is a factor. The reserves are about to be updated!!

LSE
rv84
14:33

substp DL already said on twitter the tank can be emptied more than once

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