Empiric Student Property Live Discussion

shareordie 20 Aug 2019

Results Looks like progress is being made. Quite impressed really, steady progress and that dividend cover is progressing nicely. NAV up a bit. Can’t ask for more. It seems the outsourcing of facilities management was the problem!

Eadwig 10 Jul 2019

Bullish "Rounded Bottom" chart pattern image.png634x538 10.4 KB Empiric Student Property PLC forms bullish “Rounded Bottom” chart pattern Jul 09, 2019 Recognia has detected a “Rounded Bottom” chart pattern formed on Empiric Student Property PLC (ESP:LSE). This bullish signal indicates that the stock price may rise from the close of 92.60 to the range of 94.90 - 95.40. The pattern formed over 35 days which is roughly the period of time in which the target price range may be achieved, according to standard principles of technical analysis. Tells Me: There has been a gradual shift from a downtrend to an uptrend; there may be a sharp rally ahead. The Rounded Bottom represents a slow and gradual reversal of the trend from down to sideways to up. Volume diminishes near the bottom as the stock trades within a range and finally bursts as investors become more decisively bullish. While rarer than other reversal patterns and often longer term, Rounded Bottoms usually mark a major turnaround. This bullish pattern can be seen on the following chart and was detected by Trading Central proprietary pattern recognition technology.

shareordie 20 Mar 2019

Results Progress is being made on all fronts, results look satisfactory for a recovering company. Very positive here, happy to hold.

shareordie 16 Feb 2019

Another trading update I understand you not being impressed because of previous goings on, but lots has changed since then. A few bod members have gone and there was a rumour of a conflict of interest as I herd one of them was on the bod of one of the contractors who serviced the properties. So that explains a few things, and why they are bringing property management in house, as costs seemed to be over the top when contracted out. They do seem to be making progress on the areas of previous concern. Occupancy is very good, and if servicing the properties comes down to a reasonable level all will be good here. NAV is a good starting point with property companies, I bought esp at a significant discount to NAV which means if esp’s business model no longer works I should still get my money back, and maybe a bit more for the risk/trouble. Luckily the business model looks sustainable now. The dividend needs to be sustainable as well, I would rather a lower dividend and have that covered by earnings than a bigger uncovered dividend and esp seems to be on a better footing with the lower payment and are making progress with getting it covered. I bought at 84p and even with the rise so far esp is trading less than current NAV so still a level of safety. I can see why longer term holders aren’t happy as esp has had alot of troubles, if them troubles are mostly behind it, then esp is a bargain, if not it isn’t. The plan from 2016 wasn’t right and didn’t work, the new plan with new bod members seems to be working. If you want the plan from 2016 to work your dreaming, it didn’t work and is condemned to the shredder.

zanshin 15 Feb 2019

Another trading update Yes, I read that, and as I said in my first post, there is “expectation”, nothing firm as yet. Re margin, if they were close to 70% I doubt they would not still be talking about “above 61%”, but time will tell. If it is closer to 61 than 70, then that is not a good performance against prediction. Re divi, unlike yourself, I do care what it used to be, since I bought the shares on the implied payout of promise of 6.1p. In their Dec 2016 circular they stated " The Company’s dividend target of 6.1p for the 12 months to 30 June 2017 is expected to be substantially, if not fully covered, by adjusted earnings with effect from January 2017". This proved to be an incorrect statement, and the reason I am suspicious of their continued use of “exectations” in their documents. You will appreciate that the SP was quite a bit higher back then, so the reduction of divi, as well as capital value, is a sore point to me as a long term holder. I understand that those entrants at recent lows would be more appreciative of the current return.

shareordie 15 Feb 2019

Another trading update This is the text, and it might be slightly worded differently but its there bellow in the copy and paste. And it says a gross margin above 61% not a gross margin of 61% so it’s hard to judge that one. Personally I don’t care about what the dividend used to be, I am happy with the one they have now as long as they can cover it, and they seem to be making progress on that. “The Group continues to make good progress on delivering financial and operational improvements across the business. For the year ended 31 December 2018, the Board expects the Group will deliver significant improvements in the following key financial metrics in line with previously announced management expectations”

zanshin 15 Feb 2019

Another trading update I don’t see the phrase “in line with expectations” anywhere except for the level of bookings for next year. Did I miss it? I agree that the dividend cover by earnings has to improve and be sustained. This is still a weakness at just 60%. Prior to the divi cut in 2017 ESP had targeted a 6.1p annual payout. There is currently no prospect of that being achieved, and it was that level of return which drove the SP to previous highs. The 57% margin was at the low end of expectations for the 2017 calendar year, and the target for 2018 was a margin of 70%. So the 61% is woefully short of target, and only just beats the upper end of the 2017 target. How is that achieving expectations?

shareordie 15 Feb 2019

Another trading update The dividend is not bad as it is, it’s the dividend cover that folks are interested in, on the update it isn’t going to give full details as that is what the annual reports are for, but as updates go this isn’t bad as it says everything is in line with expectations and the last details on the recovery plan were quite ambitious so it still sounds very good. Brexit won’t make any difference in my opinion, the government has already slackened the requirements for foreign students, occupancy is very good here at the moment. English is still the international business language and will continue to be so after Brexit.

zanshin 15 Feb 2019

Another trading update There is nothing real in this update; it’s all “expectation” and “board confidence”. I see no evidence that the dividend level of previous years is soon to be restored. Looking forward to a static dividend payout, and with the SP sitting at resistance levels, I would be surprised to see any significant gain in the near term driven by this statement. Perhaps the March 20 annual statement will provide the detail to prove me wrong. The SP is prey to BREXIT uncertainty, and any perceived setback to student numbers and ESP room uptake will soon knock it back again.

shareordie 14 Feb 2019

Another trading update All seems to be on track here,recovery going well.

shareordie 04 Oct 2018

Trading update Nearly fully let and bringing facilities management in house is progressing well. Very happy

shareordie 21 Aug 2018

Results It’s nice to see the 100,000 share purchase by non exec director

shareordie 21 Aug 2018

Results But there was a conflict of interest in the outsourcing of the property management, and getting rid of some bod and bringing management in house seems to be bringing d costs. The plan seems to be on track and they are targeting dividend cover by 2019 which seems possible, everyone else seems to be able to make a profit out of student property, its hard to see why these can’t make a profit with a bit of cost and management tweaking. The plan seems to be on track to me

TX2 21 Aug 2018

Results I think the results are a triumph of hype over substance;if you remove the revaluation of property that has been credited to the P&L account,as is the norm with property companies unlike normal businesses, and just look at the net income the business is making Empiric made a profit of about £8m in the half year;which equates to an annual return of under 3% on net assets. Not enough to pay the present dividend out of cash income which requires a 5% return.Can Empiric charge its student customers enough to get a realistic return on assets?Will they be prepared to pay?It is yet to show that it can.

shareordie 21 Aug 2018

Results Very good progress in lowering costs’s. Bringing facilities management in house seems to be having the desired effect. Dividend cover is looking better and on target. A rise in NAV. All in all the recovery is going well and I am happy to hold here.